EU risks winter gas-price spiral, as stocks run low

The EU is heading into its toughest winter for energy supplies since the 2022 energy crisis, with gas storage sites unusually empty for the time of year. That is according to a briefing published on Thursday (13 August) by Oxford Economics, an advisory firm affiliated with Oxford University’s business college in the UK. The forecaster also said it will revise up its European gas price forecast next month, to an average of close to €60 per megawatt hour this winter, up from €45 in its current baseline. “The coming winter is shaping up to be the toughest for the EU since 2021-2022 in terms of energy supplies,” wrote lead economist Daniel Kral. This is not to say this winter will be a repeat of 2022, when gas prices surged above €300. The EU has cut gas consumption by 15 to 20 percent in recent years. It has also adapted its buying strategy with the aim of preventing price spikes. But the bloc remains at the mercy of the weather in the winter months, Oxford Economics also said. To read this story, log in or subscribeEnjoy access to all articles and 25 years of archives, comment and gift articles. Become a subscriber for as low as €1,75 per week.Read without limitsAlready a subscriber? Login