EU exasperated by UK’s seventh PM in 10 years – and even wary of Remainer Burnham

Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street on Monday is less a cause for celebration for his European Union counterparts than a test of whether Britain has finally reached the end of its decade-long Brexit psychodrama. The UK’s seventh prime minister in 10 years will find no shortage of goodwill across the Channel. Few Labour figures have spoken as openly about the damage Brexit has inflicted. Burnham has called it a “disaster”, said he hopes Britain rejoins the EU “in my lifetime”, and argued that leaving has weakened both economic growth and immigration control. Shorts More recently, however, he has insisted he will not seek to “re-run” the Brexit arguments, recognising the political reality that Britain remains deeply divided. That combination of instinctive Europhilia and political pragmatism makes him an intriguing figure for European policymakers. But from Brussels, personality is no longer the decisive factor. The EU has learnt the hard way not to become emotionally invested in British prime ministers. ‘We are used to promises from British prime ministers’ Since the referendum, officials have negotiated with Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. Each arrived promising a fresh chapter. Each left office before fundamentally changing Britain’s relationship with Europe. The result is a mood less of excitement than cautious curiosity. One top Commission official recently summed up the prevailing attitude bluntly: “We are used to promises from a British prime minister. We’re more interested in whether they can see them through.” That scepticism reflects a broader shift. Ten years ago, Brexit dominated the EU agenda. Today, it barely makes the top tier of concerns. Donald Trump’s unpredictability, Russia’s war against Ukraine, European rearmament, migration, Chinese competition and economic competitiveness consume far more attention. Caption: Newly confirmed Labour Party leader Andy Burnham as he leaves after speaking with local stakeholders and party supporters about his plan to deliver good growth in every postcode across the country, during a visit to Gravesend Town Pier in Kent. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire Britain remains important, but it is no longer the centre of Europe’s political universe. That reality presents Burnham with both an opportunity and a challenge. Unlike Starmer, he arrives without years of self-imposed political constraints on Europe. Starmer won credit in Brussels for restoring trust after the rancour of the Johnson years. His Government rebuilt personal relationships, resumed serious negotiations and quietly re-established Britain as a dependable partner on foreign policy. Yet many European officials also felt he unnecessarily limited what could be achieved. Haunted by accusations that Labour wanted to overturn Brexit, Starmer wrapped himself in rigid red lines: no return to the EU’s single market, the customs union or freedom of movement. Starmer boxed negotiators in Those positions reassured nervous Leave voters but also boxed British negotiators into an increasingly narrow space. Even relatively modest proposals became politically difficult because they risked being portrayed as reversing Brexit. Burnham also appears psychologically freer. He has acknowledged the economic costs of Brexit while accepting the referendum result. Rather than treating every discussion with Brussels as another battle in the Brexit culture wars, he seems more comfortable arguing for practical co-operation where it serves Britain’s interests. That may prove his greatest advantage. While EU officials have seen many UK leaders come and go, there is some cautious optimism for Burnham in Europe (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/ AFP via Getty) None of this means Brussels expects a dramatic breakthrough. European officials see broad continuity rather than revolution. Existing negotiations on an agri-food agreement, linking emissions trading systems and a youth mobility scheme are expected to continue, although all three remain unfinished after the postponement of July’s UK-EU summit following Starmer’s resignation. Youth mobility remains particularly contentious because of disagreement over tuition fees for European students at British universities. The reset, in other words, is still very much a work in progress. EU now see UK as defence rather than economic partner Burnham’s political dexterity, however, could give him more room for manoeuvre than his predecessor enjoyed. Because he has never made Starmer’s red lines central to his political identity, he may find it easier to edge Britain towards closer co-operation without appearing to betray Brexit. The biggest change since 2016, however, is not economic but geopolitical. From Brussels, Britain is increasingly viewed first as a security partner and only second as a trading partner. That explains why Starmer’s strongest legacy in European capitals may have little to do with Brexit at all. His leadership on Ukraine, close co-operation with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Britain’s prominent role within Nato have been widely appreciated. Few in Brussels expect Burnham to depart from that approach. Indeed, Burnham has already pledged continuity, promising to strengthen Britain’s “hard power”, maintain unwavering support for Ukraine, deepen defence co-operation with Europe and reinforce the European pillar within Nato. He has also spoken favourably about closer collaboration on defence industries, migration, economic security and resilience against cyber threats and disinformation. These priorities align neatly with Europe’s own agenda. Burnham’s language on reducing reliance on foreign suppliers is also likely to resonate with the EU. His call earlier this month for greater “sovereign capabilities in areas… from shipbuilding and energetics to AI and quantum” mirrors EU plans for greater “strategic autonomy”. “This might quickly lead the Burnham government to look to the EU as a partner in, for instance, procuring critical minerals or developing pan-European sovereign capabilities in areas like cloud storage and payment systems,” says Joël Reland, a senior researcher at the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank. As one senior EU official observed, the EU may now have greater interest in Britain as a strategic security partner than as an economic one. Britain’s eventual participation in initiatives such as Safe, the EU’s joint defence financing programme, and broader defence industrial co-operation could ultimately prove more politically significant than another argument over customs paperwork. Difficult conversations remain European capitals will watch closely whether Burnham honours Britain’s commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035, particularly given the fiscal pressures he inherits. They will also look for clarity on how ambitious he wants the next phase of the UK-EU relationship to become. Burnham has spoken warmly about rebuilding ties but has also made clear that his immediate priorities are domestic: devolving power, reviving local economies and reindustrialising Britain. Europe may therefore slip slightly down the list of political priorities compared with Starmer’s Government, even if the overall relationship becomes warmer. “Of course, we appreciated Starmer for his foreign policy: he’s very helpful, constructive on Ukraine, on the European reset, and on many issues where the UK has aligned with the European agenda again,” says Karel Lannoo, chief executive of the Centre for European Policy Studies. “But if I was a British politician, I might see the EU as hugely time-consuming and politically draining. Yes, it would be economically rewarding, but people don’t reason that way.” Starmer was praised for his foreign policy and while Burnham has said he will seek to build bridges, he has promised to focus on domestic issues (Photo by Stefan Rousseau / POOL / AFP via Getty Images) There is another reason Brussels is proceeding carefully. Nigel Farage looms over every conversation. Few European officials believe Reform UK is guaranteed to win the next election, but many acknowledge the possibility can no longer be dismissed. That makes governments reluctant to offer Britain concessions that could simply be dismantled by another administration. Stability matters almost as much as substance. This is where Burnham has perhaps his greatest opportunity. For years, British politics has been trapped by Brexit. Every discussion with Europe became a proxy argument about the 2016 referendum. Burnham appears to understand that Britain cannot endlessly relitigate the past, but neither can it ignore the practical consequences of leaving. That instinct may resonate in Brussels. Sandro Gozi, who chairs the European Parliament delegation to the EU-UK Partnership Assembly, says Europe is looking less for grand declarations than for consistent, practical co-operation that help rebuild the relationship. “From our perspective, the priorities are, first, delivering on the ongoing work and, second, understanding whether, in this dramatically changed international context – even compared with 12 months ago – Andy Burnham wants to continue with the red lines that were established in a very different era under Keir Starmer,” Gozi told The i Paper. “If we are to continue to strengthen the partnership and fully exploit the existing framework, we will eventually reach its limits. To go beyond those limits, we will have to rethink some of the current red lines.” The reset has begun, but rebuilding confidence will require political courage on both sides of the Channel. Britain’s interests and Europe’s increasingly overlap on defence, industrial policy, economic resilience and Ukraine. The challenge is converting that convergence into lasting agreements. For Brussels, then, the first question is not whether Burnham is more pro-European than Starmer. It is whether he is prepared to spend the political capital needed to move Britain’s relationship with Europe beyond simply managing Brexit. After a decade of revolving prime ministers, European officials have become adept at waiting. Burnham’s task is to persuade them that, this time, Britain is finally ready to move forward.