Ethiopia on the brink of civil war after rebel offensive

Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia have launched a wide-scale offensive and seized control of regional airports, according to government officials, threatening to reignite a civil war after months of rising tension.The federal government in Addis Ababa has traded accusations with the leadership of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which runs the northern Tigray region, blaming each other for lighting the spark after both sides had amassed troops.Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed, who formerly led Tigray, said on X that the TPLF “had launched an all-out offensive against government positions” in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions on Wednesday. It had also taken control of federally controlled airports in the area, leading to the suspension of flights.This was, he said, “despite efforts by many including the international community to avoid yet another round of war”.READ MOREIn a statement, the TPLF blamed the government in Addis Ababa for precipitating the crisis by launching artillery, drone and aircraft attacks earlier in the week.They had ordered troops to “counter the attack” and had entered “into a defensive battle” against what they termed a “genocidal invasion”.[ UAE and Ethiopia involved in Khartoum airport drone attack, say Sudan armyOpens in new window ]Partially deserted main roads in Mekelle, northern Ethiopia, on Wednesday. Photograph: AFP via Getty Images The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, a period in which the government of late prime minister Meles Zenawi unleashed some of the fastest economic growth on the continent. But the movement, which is made up of minority Tigrayans, was sidelined after Abiy took office.The civil war that then raged between 2020 and 2022 claimed an estimated 600,000 lives, according to the African Union, and led to some of the worst atrocities recorded on the continent this century.Regional officials, analysts and western diplomats have warned for the past year that violations of the terms of the peace treaty that quelled the conflict risk leading the former foes back to war. But diplomatic efforts to avert another crisis have been complicated by the involvement of neighbouring and Gulf states with a stake in the accelerating competition for influence over the Horn of Africa and Red Sea coast.One of the biggest concerns is that fighting with Tigray could reignite a war between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, which was allied with the federal government in the last round of conflict but is now allegedly backing the rebels – a charge it denies.Ethiopia, which continues to have one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, has also been plagued by increasingly fractious relations among its different regions.In advance of this week’s flare-up in fighting, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups in Ethiopia, including rebels from the Amhara, Afar and Oromia regions, in a bid to overthrow Abiy’s government in Addis Ababa.Edward Bach, a senior Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said the TPLF offensive heightened the chances of “full-scale conflict” breaking out and provided a pretext for Abiy’s government to escalate drone attacks.The federal government was in a stronger position than it was at the outbreak of fighting in 2020, he said, having built up “a substantial stock of imported and domestically manufactured drones that were instrumental in changing the complexion of the last war”.However, he said if the conflict resumed, federal forces were likely to be stretched across multiple front lines by the newly formed alliance of rebel groups.The conflict also “has a strong potential to spread regionally”.– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026