Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting

Home Shows The Debate To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to disable it on this site. Cover image: Members of the Tigrayan forces patrol along a street as tensions intensify after the forces launched a major offensive against the federal government in multiple locations, in Mekelle, Tigray Region, Ethiopia, September 24, 2026. © REUTERS - Stringer 43:10 Issued on: 30/09/2026 - 21:04 From the show After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect? Just as Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen: did threats over the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week, unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted? Could a potential return to civil war draw in regional rivals? Ethiopia didn’t need pressure over the Red Sea to ignite. The breakdown of dialogue after the 2022 Pretoria agreement was always going to be a ticking time bomb for Africa’s second-most populous nation. And in four years, alliances have shifted… with neighboring Eritrea no longer on Abiy Ahmed’s side and Addis Ababa accusing Egypt and Sudan of supporting the TPLF rebels. Sudan with its own vicious civil war where Abiy’s accused of siding with the same UAE whose arming of RSF militias is well documented. How and who to stop a return in Ethiopia to all-out civil war? Who to prevent a regional war? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente. Video by: