Estonian foreign minister: Putin only respects strength

The Estonian city of Narva sits at the eastern edge of NATO, across a narrow river from Russia. For years, the city has served as the go-to scenario for anyone imagining how Moscow might test NATO’s Article 5 promise. Right now, though, the Russian side of the border is quiet because everything Moscow can field is in Ukraine.“I don’t believe that Narva is next,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview with me this week. “We see that the other side of the border is pretty empty.” That is the picture Estonia’s intelligence service draws in its 2026 public report. Russia has its forces committed to the war and is expected to hold off on directly attacking Estonia or any other NATO member in the coming year. Still, Estonia has spent years warning bigger Western capitals about the Russian threat and asking for a more forceful approach. Tsahkna believes President Donald Trump has an advantage since Vladimir Putin has already seen him enforce a red line, citing Trump’s decision in April 2017 to attack Syria after Washington attributed a chemical attack to Bashar al Assad. For him, the episode demonstrated that American warnings carry weight when military power and political will stand behind them. That could strengthen Trump’s hand as he seeks an agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.“Putin is afraid of President Trump’s decisions, because he knows that Trump can act,” Tsahkna told me. “He tested it when Trump was first in office.”Trump has invested heavily in diplomacy with Russia and Ukraine, but repeated rounds of talks have produced little movement. Moscow keeps pressing demands that would leave Ukraine’s security constrained and exposed to renewed Russian pressure along its borders. For the Kremlin, a secure Ukraine would go against the central purpose of the war.“There cannot be any gray zones between Russia and NATO and the European Union,” Tsahkna said. “This would be a green light for further aggression. Putin doesn’t need just some territories. He needs all of Ukraine. He needs to dominate the Western world and also reorganize the European security architecture which is directly connected to the U.S. security architecture. The picture has not changed.”Estonia sees Ukraine’s security as closely tied to its own. The small Baltic country regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and joined NATO in 2004. Its leaders believe a Russian victory in Ukraine would make Moscow stronger and increase the threat to the rest of Europe.“I do hope that President Trump understands that more pressure on Russia is something which is bringing Putin to the negotiating table. We know that Putin only understands power and strength, and this kind of false hope for the future that he can actually beat Ukraine militarily when there is no science to back that,” he said. “Russia is running out of economic power and there is more tension domestically. We have been living here, in Estonia, a long time and we know Russians. Strength is the only thing that Putin understands.” He adds that if Putin is “no longer able to deliver for the oligarchs who are actually running the country … tensions inside the system could grow. “Tallinn has consequently become one of Ukraine’s most committed supporters relative to the size of its economy. Estonia has provided weapons, training and other assistance and supported Kyiv’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union. Estonia will spend 5.4% of its gross domestic product on defense in 2026, among the highest shares in NATO. But Estonia wants reassurance from Washington.Estonia’s warnings about Russia long predate the invasion of Ukraine.In 2007, the country was hit by weeks of Russian cyberattacks that disrupted government websites, banks, and other critical services. The experience helped turn Tallinn into one of NATO’s most persistent advocates, one that takes Russian pressure seriously. Russia’s actions in Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine after 2022 have only reinforced this argument.JOHNSON SLAMS PETE HEGSETH IMPEACHMENT ARTICLES: ‘IT’S A PUBLICITY STUNT’“If Putin knows where the red lines are, and that these red lines are backed up with full-scale, decisive political will and military capabilities, he’s afraid of touching them,” Tsahkna said. “That’s why we call on all our allies, starting with President Trump, to be very clear,” he said. “Where are the red lines? Where are the principles?”“President Trump wants to have peace,” he said. “The [issue] is that we need to put more pressure on Russia to get it.”