Energy Affordability Trumps Climate in US Midterm Races

Elevated US gasoline and electricity prices are seeping into the upcoming midterm elections in November.Candidates are prioritizing consumer affordability over the environment, with Democrats linking gas price increases to President Trump’s foreign policy decisions.Meanwhile, a debate over data center expansion and consumer rate impacts are forcing candidates to address infrastructure investment trade-offs.According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, US residential electricity prices rose 7% in 2025 versus 2024. Ratepayers in 46 states experienced year-over-year increases, with those in 12 states and Washington, DC, seeing double-digit annual rate hikes, states S&P Global.Factors contributing to high electricity prices include rising energy prices, infrastructure improvements, extreme weather, environmental mandates, and the energy-intensive development of data centers.In the first quarter of 2026, Hawaii paid the most per kWh at 43.91 cents, followed by California and New York, at a respective 36.15 and 32.63 cents. The national average was 18.70 cents. "This climate-versus-fossil fuels framing of past cycles has given way to affordability [and] electricity price framing for both parties," said Scott Segal, head of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group. The increased focus on affordability does not necessarily mean that progressive Democrats are lining up to bring natural gas-fired power plants to their states. "But it does mean there's a growing recognition that very strict environmentalist or climate change messages are not being proffered by most Democratic politicians, at least in the runup to this midterm election," Segal said. The war in Iran is driving oil prices higher and with them, US gasoline prices which are nearly $1/gallon more nationwide than a year ago, according to AAA.In Alaska, where gas averaged $4.27 a gallon on July 28 — making it the fourth most expensive state — the incumbent Republican wants an increase in domestic oil production to counter the price impacts of war. The Democratic challenger says the war is driving higher costs and that as an oil-producing states, Alaskans “should be benefiting from that at the pump, not footing the bill for endless wars.”Overall, a curious energy pragmatism is emerging, knocking candidates off their traditional messaging.S&P Global notes that Incumbent Democratic governors are embracing diverse fuel sources amid rising demand, with an all-of-the-above approach that includes natural gas alongside nuclear and renewable power… This trend, however, is not consistent across the entire country. Incumbent Democrats in some states, such as Colorado, drew strong pushback in their primaries for being more open to fossil fuels… In Connecticut, the incumbent Democrat sees natural gas as the state’s dominant fuel source for the foreseeable future, whereas the Republican challenger blames carbon-free policies for cost increases.Sixty percent of California voters are unwilling to pay more for renewables, 96% of whom cite the cost of energy as a problem. Quite an about-face for the country’s greenest state.In the race for governor, the Democrat emphasizes affordability over climate goals; and won’t commit to phasing out gasoline cars by 2035. The Republican wants to end the state’s renewable portfolio standard and renewable energy credits; and says gas, nuclear and rooftop solar should compete on a level playing field.Voters are obviously concerned about energy affordability and are laying the blame squarely on data centers, which require massive amounts of power and water.S&P Global notes that In local, state and federal campaigns, candidates' positions on data-center development — including proposed moratoriums in some cases — could directly impact their chances of electoral success.A 2026 Politico national survey cited by Brookings found nearly half of Americans expect data center energy costs to be a campaign issue. Thirty-eight percent of respondents in a 2026 Pew Research Center poll claimed that overall data center impact on home energy costs was mostly bad, compared to 6% who believed it was mostly good.However, there was plenty of room for party differences, with the poll finding that, in general, Republicans had more favorable views about data centers and saw them as valuable economic development vehicles and less damaging to the environment than Democrats did.In Texas, 55% of voters oppose data-center construction, despite the state proposing 32 gas-fired projects.The Utah governor requires a new transparency framework and renewable power requirements for data centers, while Florida frontrunners agree that data centers require stricter regulation.Two counties in Maryland have imposed data-center construction moratoriums.There is some evidence to suggest that expressing concern over high electricity rates and blaming data centers for the increase were reasons for Democratic candidates gaining considerable traction in 2025. In that way, Democrats are simply following what worked. Brookings states:Analysts in Virginia and New Jersey attributed Democratic victories to the tough stance gubernatorial candidates took against those facilities. Conservatives have joined the critique as well; Florida Governor Ron DeSantis supported an AI bill of rights to protect consumers from AI risks and shield them from the electricity costs of data centers.We are already seeing 2026 candidates from both parties rail against rising rates, fixing responsibility on wealthy tech companies and the energy needs of their data centers. Electoral aspirants are leveraging public fears over artificial intelligence and a “techlash” against large digital firms to appeal to voters and propose tough legislation. The Virginia Senate, for instance, recently passed a budget bill that would remove a $1.6 billion tax break for data center equipment — just one sign of the shifting political climate for developers. Public concern over electricity costs will likely dominate this year’s campaign dialogue and could determine which candidates find success at the polls.By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comVenezuela’s Oil Exports Fall Even as U.S. Shipments Hit Seven-Year HighUkraine’s Drone Campaign Drives Russian Oil Refining to 24-Year LowDark Tanker Transits Surge at Bab el-Mandeb as Houthi Threat Persists