Emilio Pagán Keeps Getting It Done

Right-handed reliever Emilio Pagán is a free agent after declining his $10MM player option with the Reds. We ranked him at No. 35 on our list of the Top 50 Free Agents, and two of MLBTR’s three full-time writers expect him to rejoin the Reds on a new deal. As noted in that article, Pagán’s extreme fly ball tendencies have made him a curious fit at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, but he somehow keeps getting it done. Since the 2024 season, 190 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings out of the bullpen. Pagán carries a 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in that time, tying the recently retired Kirby Yates for 23rd with a 21.0% K-BB rate. The league average in that three-year span is just under 14%. From a strikeout and walk perspective, Pagán is right there in the second-tier of quality relievers, even though his run prevention numbers keep him from elite status. The biggest drawback is Pagán’s propensity for giving up home runs. In the last three years, he’s given up 23 homers in 147 1/3 innings (not counting a two-inning opener appearance in 2024). He’s allowed 1.40 home runs per nine innings, ranking 17th-worst in the 190-reliever group. Unsurprisingly, Pagán is also one of the worst in the group at keeping the ball on the ground. Only six relievers on that list have a worse ground ball rate since 2024 than Pagán’s 28.3%. For comparison, the league average ground ball rate in 2026 was 41.6%. It’s especially fascinating that the Reds have used Pagán as their closer even with his fly ball tendencies. The 35-year-old compiled 57 saves from 2025-26, a higher total than all but seven closers around the Majors. Out of those seven, only Raisel Iglesias (33.8%) and Trevor Megill (36.6%) posted below-average ground ball rates. None of them allowed more than one home run per nine innings. Pagán allowed 1.37 HR/9. As for the run prevention numbers, Pagán posted a 3.44 earned run average in just under 150 innings with the Reds. The bulk of the damage came in 2024, when he had a 4.50 ERA in 38 innings and missed time with right triceps and lat injuries. One could argue that Pagán was unlucky that year. Opposing hitters batted .351 on balls in play, the highest mark of Pagán’s career and well above league norms. Meanwhile, the righty’s 3.77 FIP and 3.19 SIERA were significantly lower than his actual ERA. Pagán posted ERAs of 2.88 in 2025 and 3.38 in 2026, respectively. Compared to 2024, he was actually on the lucky side. Opponents batted just .218 in that two-year stretch, while Pagán also benefitted from a high 79.6% strand rate. Accordingly, he posted SIERAs of 3.18 and 3.54, suggesting he was a bit fortunate from a run prevention standpoint, but still a decently effective reliever. The Reds were fully aware of Pagán’s high strikeout, fly-ball, and low-ground ball tendencies when they first signed him in December 2023. After two years of first-hand experience with him, they brought Pagán back at two years and $20MM (with the opt-out after this year), a slightly higher average annual value than the prior two-year, $16MM pact. Clearly, the Reds could stomach the occasional long ball and lack of grounders as long as Pagán kept up the strikeouts and control. He did exactly that, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cincy brought him back again for that reason. We at MLBTR project Pagán for another two-year, $20MM deal. For comparison, he earned $26MM over 2024-26 while producing 2.0 fWAR in total, a slightly above-market rate of $13MM per WAR. A $10MM annual salary going forward seems reasonable if Pagán keeps striking hitters out. His two-month absence for a left hamstring strain this year might give teams some pause, but he also had a dominant 1.88 ERA and 25.9% K-BB rate in 28 1/3 innings post-injury (albeit with a strand rate close to 100%). At worst, Pagán will secure a one-year deal with an eight-figure or high seven-figure salary. One key to Pagán’s future success will be recapturing his feel for the splitter. It’s Pagán’s sole offspeed pitch, and it was worth +6 Run Value as recently as 2025. The splitter’s effectiveness fell off dramatically in 2026. Whereas Pagán got a +2 Run Value on both his four-seamer and cutter, the splitter fell to just -4 RV. Opposing hitters saw increases of .183 in batting average (from .121 to .304), .315 in slugging (from .207 to .522), and 18.1% in hard-hit rate (from 17.6% to 35.7%). Without the splitter as an effective secondary pitch, hitters might have an easier time figuring Pagán out if they just need to focus on the two fastballs, which were solid but hardly dominant offerings. Ultimately, Pagán has strikeouts, control, and good fastball velocity on his side, while the home runs, recent injury, and less effective offspeed pitch remain points of concern. He won’t be a dominant reliever, but he could perhaps be an underrated pickup for the Reds or a different team with a more spacious home ballpark. Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images