Election forecaster drops doomsday midterm warnings for Trump

PoliticsDays ahead of Election Day, polling analyst Nate Silver is predicting Democrats with high likelihood to take over both chambers of Congress. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)AP Photo/Alex BrandonPolling analyst Nate Silver believes that Democrats have a high likelihood of taking control of both the House and Senate come Tuesday.For months, national polls have shown Democratic candidates with an advantage over Republicans when likely voters are asked who they would pick on a generic congressional ballot.But Silver, the author of the “Silver Bulletin,” thinks that the Democratic Party has a nearly eight-in-10 chance of winning the Senate, which has been viewed as more uncertain among other experts in the political arena ahead of the midterm elections.Silver is projecting Democrats with a 95% chance to take the House — and odds in the upper 70% range in the Senate — according to comments released Thursday on “The Argument” podcast.“That’s a little bit higher than prediction markets, but like I feel decent about that, actually,” Silver said, adding that his model is known for its “fairly long track record of true prediction.”His latest comments — as the GOP hopes to hold onto both of its majorities in Congress — come after he said during an interview on “The Ezra Klein Show” Tuesday that the upcoming election could officially “mark the end” of President Donald Trump’s era if polling is correct. “He’ll still be president for two more years, but the minute the election — the votes are counted, might take a while because of Alaska and California and states like that — the 2028 election campaign begins,” Silver said. “And if Trump has a bad night, as polls show, then he’s a super lame duck, right?”Silver acknowledged that people are “understandably” having trouble believing surveys, saying it looks like U.S. is “a different regime” with states that typically vote red now in play.“Kansas is competitive, Texas is competitive, potentially gains for Democrats deep into Republican territory,” he said. “But maybe we’re on the verge of something different between generational turnover, between Trump being three-quarters of the way through his two constitutionally provided for terms, and with AI looming, too.”Meanwhile, Trump and several allies have hinted that they won’t look too much into the polls, suggesting that they are intentionally designed to discourage GOP voters from heading to the polls.According to Cook Political Report, Democrats have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009, with the nonpartisan prognosticator giving them 240 seats out of the 218 needed. For the Senate, the forecaster argued that control is up for grabs, given seven key races still within the margin of error.And the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said in a final forecast that it is more confident in the House flipping than the Senate.“With just days to go before the election, generic ballot forecasting models are predicting a blue wave on Nov. 3 that will almost certainly give Democrats control of the House of Representatives and very likely give them control of the Senate,” it wrote Thursday.Rachel Cohen covers national politics as a reporter for Advance Local, focusing on President Donald Trump's second term and Congress. She previously worked as a trending political reporter for NJ.com. Her work...