Election fever mounts as Labour lead grows and oil prices ease after Trump midterms battering - with fears Burnham could exploit split on the Right

Published: 04:33 EST, 10 November 2026 | Updated: 04:50 EST, 10 November 2026 A fresh bout of election fever is gripping Westminster as a poll showed Labour's lead stretching out.YouGov research found Andy Burnham's party is six points clear on 27 per cent support, after a recent Tory surge eased back.The Conservatives were on 21 per cent, still just ahead of Reform on 20 per cent - effectively splitting the Right-wing vote.Many Government insiders are now working on the basis that a general election could happen in May, despite the PM's flat denials that he will trigger a national ballot.One senior source told the Daily Mail: 'The assumption in Whitehall, and among many MPs, is that it's going to be May.'Everything Andy says is that an election isn't happening, but everything they do is pointing to May.' The election rumours have been given extra impetus by John Healey pushing back key decisions in the Budget. Many Government insiders are now working on the basis that a general election will happen in May, despite Andy Burnham's (pictured) flat denials that he will trigger a national ballotA spending review due in the second half of next year will need to spell out a path for defence budgets hitting 3 per cent of GDP by 2030. Difficult choices are also looming on departmental spending, with think-tanks flagging that current plans seem to entail huge real-terms cuts in the coming years.The PM is due to lay out a '10-year plan' in the coming months, after highlighting policies such as an NHS-style social care system that will not happen before an election. He has also hinted at a push to rejoin the EU in the next manifesto.There are also hopes that the spring could look less bleak than had been feared for Britons, after oil prices fell back in the wake of Donald Trump's midterms battering from voters. The president suggested again last night that the Iran war was effectively over, with Brent Crude dipping to around $90 a barrel. The latest YouGov figures could be enough to get Labour an overall majority, according to estimates from Electoral Calculus. The Tories would remain the Opposition but lose ground, while Reform would rack up dozens of seats while still being behind the Lib Dems in MP numbers. However, the dynamics are complicated and the performance of parties in particular areas would be critical. The Tories have been seeing a fledgling revival in their fortunes under Kemi Badenoch Mr Burnham has repeatedly ruled out an election next year. In an interview last month, he said: 'I am not coming into this job full of political calculation in terms of ''what do I need to do for how it benefits me or the party?'''I come into the job genuinely feeling that the country needs a really clear change in terms of the way politics has been done because we're in a messy position.'