Americans go to the polls Tuesday after a campaign dominated by concerns over the economy, the cost of living, and war in the Middle East. Midterm elections typically punish the party in power in Washington, and polls suggest this time will be no exception: Democrats appear poised to win control of the House of Representatives, where they need to pick up just three seats. They could also win the Senate, despite a difficult map and needing a net gain of four seats. Losing Congress would be a major setback for President Donald Trump as he enters the final two years of his term, giving Democrats leverage on matters ranging from budget talks to judicial nominations. At rallies, the president has implored his supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot.But his campaign appearances might be energizing Democratic voters as much as Republicans. In an era of negative polarization, how you feel about Mr. Trump is often the biggest indicator of how you vote. For months, the Monitor has been reporting from across the country on how candidates and voters are responding to this political moment. Our coverage has surfaced points of contention and convergence among voters. Whom parties nominate matters. So do local and state issues. But a wave election, which polls suggest could be coming on Tuesday, tends to lift all boats and overrun the party in power. SOURCE: Cook Political Report | Jacob Turcotte/Staff Some highlights from our coverage are linked below and keyed to the accompanying map.1. Democratic divide. For Democrats, a favorable political environment has been tempered by internal battles over the party’s future. Nowhere more so than in Michigan, where Democrats nominated Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing populist, over Rep. Haley Stevens, a pro-Israel moderate who was initially backed by the party establishment. On Sunday, Ms. Stevens broke with her party and Mr. El-Sayed by endorsing his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, a stunning rebuke by a sitting Democrat and a sign of a greater intraparty friction to come. 2. A tale of two Sullivans. Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in a tight race in Alaska, complicated by the fact that there’s another Dan Sullivan on the four-candidate ballot – something a New York Times report traced to the Peltola campaign, raising questions about the line between what’s legal and what’s ethical. The state uses ranked choice voting, which means voters’ second or third choices might determine who gets the needed 50% or more to win.3. Frustrated farmers. In Iowa, the cost of diesel and other agricultural inputs have put Republicans on the back foot, giving Democrats a shot at both a Senate seat and the governorship. Between tariffs and the Iran war, Mr. Trump’s policies have been a drag on the GOP ticket in Iowa and other agricultural states. 4. A test for progressives. Mr. El-Sayed is running for a Senate seat in a purple state that Mr. Trump won in 2024. But most of the left-wing nominees this cycle are seeking to represent urban areas in deep-blue states such as New York and California. The question is whether they can win competitive elections outside these strongholds. One test will be in Maine, where Matt Dunlap, the state auditor, is trying to hold a mostly rural swing congressional district with a progressive platform. 5. Different models on the left. Not all the candidates on the left are fiery young socialists or progressives like Mr. El-Sayed. If Sherrod Brown retakes a Senate seat against GOP incumbent Jon Husted in Ohio, his old-school style of economic populism could offer a model for other Democrats trying to recapture culturally conservative blue-collar voters.6. Hopes on the right. Even as Democrats claim the momentum, Republicans could hold on to seats in some tough races or even flip a seat their way. If that happens, New England could be an unlikely venue, with the region’s more moderate brand of conservatism. Former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu is trying to reclaim his old seat in New Hampshire (and flip it red), but he’ll need to chase down the open seat’s front-runner, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. In Maine, Susan Collins is looking to keep her long-held seat against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. 7. A shifting role for faith. This year, Democratic candidates in key races are putting their Christian faith front and center in campaign messaging. In Texas, seminarian James Talarico has polled strongly against scandal-troubled state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that carries symbolic importance for both sides. Republicans have had to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to defend a Senate seat once seen as an easy win. In Kansas, GOP incumbent Roger Marshall faces United Methodist megachurch founder Adam Hamilton, who has turned a formerly long-shot race competitive. The combination of a faith-oriented candidate with a moderate platform could be a potent one. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1939.8. The Latino vote. In the U.S. House, Republicans’ four-seat majority was always going to be tough to defend, even after a round of highly partisan mid-cycle redistricting that likely will net the GOP a few more districts. Their task has been made more difficult by declining support among many Latino voters, including some who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 because of his economic record. Latinos make up an important voting bloc in some of the most competitive races. Republican lawmakers who had counted on their support are likely to come up short in the midterms. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.
Election Day arrives: Here’s the best of our midterms coverage
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