El Nino is coming: What does that mean for Alabama?

The predictions are mounting that El Niño is coming, and it could be a big one.NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an “El Niño watch” in effect and is expecting El Niño to emerge “soon” and last through the winter months.In fact, in the most recent outlook the CPC said there’s an 82 percent chance El Nino will kick in between now and July and a 96 percent probability it will last through February 2027.Could it be a strong one? It’s not certain, but it could. Some in the weather world are even using the phrase “super El Niño” to describe what could evolve later this year.The CPC said in its most recent El Niño diagnostics report that “while confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37 percent chance.”Forecasters added “stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”Why does El Nino matter? It could end up affecting the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, and it could make the weather interesting across the South over the upcoming winter months.El Niño is a periodic phenomenon that can affect the weather worldwide. It begins when ocean temperatures near the equator in the Pacific off the coast of South America warm up more than what’s considered normal.Those warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures can set off a chain reaction that affects global weather patterns. According to The Weather Channel there have been 27 El Niños since 1950, with one on average every three or four years.The strongest ones on record have been in 1983 and 1997, according to NOAA data.The last El Niño began in July of 2023 and lasted until March of 2024. It has been ranked as the fourth-strongest El Niños during the satellite area since 1979.El Niño in 2026 is looking more likely, according to Jason Beaman, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Mobile.“The chances of El Niño are increasing,” Beaman said. “We are seeing a greater likelihood of El Niño conditions developing especially by late summer into the fall and winter.“Now how strong the El Niño gets, that’s a little more uncertain,” he continued. “There’s still a wide range of solutions — from a weak El Niño to a very strong El Niño, which is sometimes referred to as a ‘Super El Niño.’ There’s a lot of uncertainty there about how strong it could get. That does make a difference, especially if you’re talking about the upcoming hurricane season.”El Niños can help suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf and the Caribbean.It doesn’t mean there won’t be hurricanes, but they have a tougher time getting organized.“El Niño reconfigures the jet stream, if you will, across the Northern Hemisphere during this time, and a more active jet, what we call a southern stream, typically causes more wind shear over the Gulf, the Caribbean and the Atlantic,” Beaman said. “So that tends to suppress the numbers, which obviously gives you less chances of getting hit by a storm.”Wind shear vs. hurricanesWhy does wind shear affect tropical storms or hurricanes?Think of a hurricane has a kind of heat engine, Beaman said. It relies on constant thunderstorm activity near its center of circulation. “Thunderstorm activity rises up 30, 40, 50, 60,000 feet into the atmosphere,” he said. “When we’re talking about wind shear, we’re talking about really strong winds up at those levels of 20-60,000 feet. And the stronger the wind shear, it tends to rip those thunderstorms apart and displaces them from the center that’s trying to develop.“So a tropical system can’t really maintain that engine, if you will, and so more wind shear means the more disorganized the tropical weather is. A tropical system, especially a hurricane, doesn’t want any wind shear at all.”So strengthening wind shear with an El Niño generally means more hostile conditions for tropical development through the hurricane season.“How strong the wind shear is is dependent on how strong the El Niño is and how quickly the El Niño develops,” Beaman said. “So for example, if we really don’t see the El Niño developing until the tail end of the hurricane season then it may not have much influence on the peak of the season for us. It’s all about timing and strength, and those are where some of those uncertainties still lie for this season.”There will be stormsAnd even if El Niño develops, and even if it’s strong, doesn’t mean the Alabama coast is in the clear.“History shows us that significant hurricanes and tropical events do occur during El Niño years,” Beaman added. “So by no means should anyone let their guard down,” he said.Need proof? Just go back to 1997, a “super El Niño” year. There was Hurricane Danny.“Danny was just a Category 1 hurricane, right? That doesn’t sound too intimidating based on the category,” Beaman said. “But it dropped 30-40 inches of rain across Mobile and Baldwin counties. Catastrophic flooding resulted from that very slow-moving hurricane.”Then there was 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 which devastated South Florida and then Louisiana, he added.“And I could go on, historically. And there were other notable hurricanes across the Gulf in general that have developed and impacted areas,” he said.“So I don’t want it to come across that you don’t have to worry about this hurricane season. History tells us that we always have to pay attention. Regardless of how many there are, it’s only important that when storms develop, where do they land?”More rain this fall and winter?Once hurricane season ends there’s Alabama’s so-called “secondary” severe weather season to consider. “(El Niño) does (have an influence) especially when you get into the fall and winter,” Beaman said. “That’s when the subtropical jet, that jet stream that develops from the eastern Pacific across northern Mexico or the southern United States into the Gulf of Mexico or southeast United States — that’s when it really gets active. That tends to bring a lot of storm systems across our area, which in turn gives us typically above-normal rainfall.”No one will complain about more rain considering Alabama is in the midst of a drought. But there could be too much of a good thing, eventually.“Sometimes we have to start watching out for flooding issues during a strong El Nino. We look for that more during the winter and into next spring,” he said. “We certainly have a long way to go to worry about flooding given our current drought. But the switch could flip pretty dramatically from what we’ve had. So we could be looking at an above-normal rainfall pattern developing this winter if El Niño does develop.”