El Nino gaining power: India in crosshairs, model predicts when it will hit

A strengthening El Nino across the Pacific now has a more than 90 per cent chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. Scientists say rising ocean heat and shifting winds could heighten weather disruptions, though local impacts may still vary.Warm waters are also extending deep below the ocean surface, providing additional fuel for the climate pattern to intensify. (Photo: Windy)A powerful El Nino event is continuing to build across the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters now say there is more than a 90 per cent chance that it will become a very strong climate event during the second half of 2026 and early 2027.According to the latest assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have continued to rise over the past month, a key sign that El Nino is strengthening.Scientists reported that sea surface temperatures in some parts of the equatorial Pacific are now more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Warm waters are also extending deep below the ocean surface, providing additional fuel for the climate pattern to intensify in the coming months.Weather patterns across the Pacific are already showing clear signs of El Nino's influence. Rainfall has increased over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while regions such as Indonesia are experiencing drier-than-normal conditions. Changes in wind patterns across the tropics, another hallmark of El Nino, have also become more pronounced. Climate models used by NOAA and international forecasting agencies indicate that the event is likely to continue strengthening through the end of 2026. Forecasters estimate a 69 per cent chance that the current El Nino could become a historic event, potentially rivaling or even surpassing some of the strongest El Ninos recorded since modern observations began in 1950.If that happens, the event could rank alongside major El Nino episodes that have had significant impacts on weather patterns around the world.El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. These temperature changes can alter weather patterns globally, influencing rainfall, droughts, heatwaves and storms in different regions.However, scientists caution that a strong El Nino does not guarantee specific weather outcomes everywhere. While the chances of El Nino-related impacts increase as the event strengthens, local weather conditions can still vary considerably from region to region.The development is being closely watched by meteorologists worldwide, particularly in countries where El Nino can influence seasonal rainfall and temperatures.Further updates are expected in September as scientists continue to monitor conditions across the Pacific Ocean and assess how strong the event may ultimately become.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Aug 14, 2026 17:16 IST