Economists see inflation running hotter in Canada, survey shows

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Photo by BRUNSWICK NEWS ARCHIVESEconomists are boosting their forecasts for Canada inflation, now saying price pressures won’t return to the central bank’s two per cent target until the third quarter of next year.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountAnalysts see the consumer price index averaging three per cent over the next six months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. That’s 0.6 percentage points higher than in last month’s survey.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The higher-for-longer outlook coincides with a resurgence in oil prices from the conflict in the Middle East. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that persistently elevated gasoline prices are likely to keep headline inflation above target and increase the risk that price pressures spread more broadly.SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: FP West: Energy Insider brings you behind the oilpatch’s closed doors with exclusive insights from insiders every Wednesday morning.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of FP West: Energy Insider will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againStill, economists don’t expect the bank to raise interest rates from the current 2.25 per cent until its June meeting next year, the survey shows. That’s at odds with market pricing — traders in overnight swaps put the odds of a hike at the bank’s October meeting at about a coin flip.The outlook for growth has also weakened. Economists see annualized growth of 1.5 per cent in both the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year, down from 1.7 per cent for each period in last month’s survey. They put the probability of a recession at 30 per cent.Statistics Canada next reports inflation Oct. 19.This advertisement has not loaded yet.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.