Drumcree dispute overshadows last UUP conference before Stormont election

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Jon Burrows had hoped that his party’s last conference in advance of May’s Stormont election would focus on presenting a version of unionism confident about the future.Instead, its gathering at the Crowne Plaza in south Belfast was overshadowed by the return of the Drumcree Orange Order parade to the headlines, nearly 30 years after it last dominated Northern Ireland’s politics.Today, the Ulster Unionists have eight seats in the Assembly, down one since the last elections in 2022 following the bitter departure of the party’s former leader, Doug Beattie.Burrows’ relationship with his Stormont team is strained. In reality, he would be happier to see the back of some of them, but like every UUP leader before him, he leads a party made up of independent dioceses.READ MORE“He recognises that there is a need to shake up the party. He wants much more central control over who stands in each constituency,” said Prof Jon Tonge of the University of Liverpool.“This is a problem that successive UUP leaders have had – the party’s structure is that there are 18 virtually autonomous constituency associations. They make the decisions, and the writ of the leader doesn’t run very far.” Dr Kathryn Owen, chosen to run in the newly-created South Belfast/Mid-Down constituency, is an example of the change he wants, having described her as “a shining light” when she was put on the party’s ticket.Speaking to delegates, Owen, a former DUP councillor, said: “Unionism today faces a choice. We can become smaller and louder or broader, more confident, and more ambitious. I know which future I want. Kathryn Owen speaking at the UUP annual conference on Saturday. Photograph: PA Wire “The greatest argument for the union is not simply what we say about it. It is about what Northern Ireland can become within it,” she added, pointing behind her to the conference’s “Stronger Together” slogan.Burrows has an opportunity next May to restore the UUP’s fortunes, which have been in decline since the Belfast Agreement nearly 30 years ago, especially given the Democratic Unionist Party’s (DUP) difficulties over the conviction of former party leader Jeffrey Donaldson. Next month, Donaldson will learn the price he will pay for abusing two children, but the DUP remains unsure about the price that it will pay, if any, for his conduct.Despite the fury among unionist voters about Donaldson’s sins and the DUP’s failures, the best estimates are that the party will drop a small number of Stormont seats, but not more.In turn, the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), led by Jim Allister MP, will pick up extra Stormont seats, as will Burrows and the UUP, but only enough to make it difficult for unionism to speak coherently, rather than changing who speaks first for unionism. Such election results will make the formation of a new Executive difficult, though matters could be simplified if Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Bryant forces through reforms.Burrows enters the final lap towards the elections with the UUP – battered since David Trimble led it into the Belfast Agreement – with a better chance to turnaround its fortunes than it has for some time. “The Ulster Unionists are not on the brink of extinction, although it has lost members. It still has more members than the DUP, even after the last couple of decades,” Tonge said.In his words to the conference, however, UUP veteran and former member of the European Parliament Jim Nicholson warned that it has too often had the ability in the past “to mess things up”.[ Irish unity campaign nothing more than ‘constitutional vandalism’, UUP leader saysOpens in new window ]Though there is much talk of unionist unity, there is, in reality, little hope of it appearing on the ground in the Stormont elections, where preferences decide the outcome of most seats.Up to now, the TUV has been toxic for transfers, though DUP supporters may be more inclined this time to offer crucial lower-order preferences; as will some UUP voters motivated most by a long-held antipathy towards the DUP.However, the decline of the DUP preceded Donaldson’s fall from grace.“They shed 40,000 votes at the last Assembly election. They were already in decline before Donaldson,” says Tonge, who has studied political unionism for decades. “They peaked during Peter Robinson’s time in charge and the very initial phase of Arlene Foster ... The talk of unity means nothing in Assembly elections. They’re all competing for votes. It doesn’t amount to anything more than a willingness to transfer to other unionists, if that.”In reality, the differences between the three unionist parties are profound – the UUP is in favour of powersharing, and does not believe in collapsing Stormont as a political tactic, unlike the DUP. In addition, the UUP favours reform of Stormont, which the DUP does not, no matter what it says publicly; while the TUV has never believed in power sharing and certainly not with Sinn Féin.[ As momentum builds in the Irish unity debate, how is unionism responding?Opens in new window ]“You can’t paper over all of that. There are three different offerings, there are fundamental differences,” said Tonge, speaking on the margin of the conference attended by several hundred delegates.The politics of the past exemplified by Drumcree does little for Burrows’ hopes to focus unionism on the future, one where it could offer a message that Northern Ireland is best-off in the United Kingdom.For the DUP, Drumcree presents short-term advantages to bind wounds in the party left by Donaldson, while some in Sinn Féin are happy to seek gains from a renewed controversy.Burrows must tread carefully. There are more members of the Orange Order in the UUP than there are in the DUP, even if there are many within the order who are not happy to see Garvaghy Road back on the agenda.So far, Burrows has welcomed the drubbing received by the Parades Commission for its abject handling of the Portadown lodge’s application to march. Equally, one could be forgiven for thinking he would prefer if it did not exercise that right, if finally cleared to do so.