Drone Wall Rises: Ukraine Bets on Its Best Corps

This is not a standard review but notes of developments spotted and noted quickly over the past two weeks, and some very limited comments. Expect this format next week, then return to standard after that. Images are not particularly linked to any news item; they just seemed eye-catching to me when I spotted them, and so I’m passing them on.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Signum, Wednesday Nikita Titov’s artwork from January 2022. Original here. Begemot drones under construction, Budanov’s Telegram feed, Monday 39th and 40th Marines, graduation ceremony, Wednesday Atmospheric image of Leopard I (?), a little riskily out in the open My guess is the most significant development of the past two weeks will play out to be: 1st and 3rd Corps have been assigned the mission of holding Slovyansk and Kramatorsk against the expected Russian offensive. Both commanders are self-made generals – Denys Prokopenko (1st Azov Corps) and Andriy Biletsky (3rd Army Corps) – who rose through Azov’s ranks; in other words, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) put its first team and best players into the Donetsk region. These are two of the AFU’s hardest-fighting corps – although, to be fair, probably the 30th Marine and 7th and 8th Airborne Assault Corps are to that level. The presence of USF brass at the outset of the planning makes crystal clear the Ukrainian intent: when Russia launches its big offensive, probably after the fall wet season, the most effective Drone Wall buzz saw will be in place to meet it. Three months is a long time to let Ukrainians prepare… Ukrainian airborne infantry trooper (bottom center) takes four Russian soldiers prisoner, Oleksandrivka-Huliaipole sector. Screen grab from video published by Yury Butusov probably is from mopping up operations in late July. This command move was the work of Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapaty and President Volodymyr Zelensky and although I know it’s not fashionable to observe positive leadership by Zelensky, this is an unchallengeable example. The man clearly is pushing for a younger, more modern, and more agile AFU leadership. Other Topics of Interest Russia to Close Goethe-Institut Branches in Retaliation Against Germany Moscow announced the move after Berlin shut down the Russian House cultural center and Russia’s consulate in Bonn over an alleged drone sabotage plot. Avrora supermarket burns in Slovyansk after Russian long-range rocket hit, Thursday. On Aug. 26 the Ukrainians ran a typical-for-them complicated air strike with all manner of moving parts and preparatory operations; it appeared to have worked and at least one Russian army HQ was blown up. The Play-by-Play (Note: None of the images are by me, all are pulled from open sources, order of images isn’t really tied to the text) Aug. 15 – The Chongar railroad bridge collapses of its own accord, ending heavy rail transport between Crimea and the rest of the world. Probably the Russians will build a bypass, but for trucks. Under present circumstances, laying down new track is probably impossible because of the drones. Russians griping that even though the Kremlin SAYS traffic is moving freely between the Russian mainland and Crimea, somehow on the actual road that isn’t the case. This likely is in the northern Donetsk region. Aug. 15 – Flamingo missiles hit the Progress plant in Samara twice. This is the center of Russia’s national space effort. The missiles appear to have hit a pair of production buildings that manufacture Soyuz components in hyper-sterile conditions. In one building, manufacturing lines opened to the elements include electrical equipment, instruments and printed circuit boards. The second building is final assembly. Usually, Flamingos miss or get shot down, but not this time, it seems. Saturday, Flamingo preps for launch Aug. 16 – Massive fires at two Wildberries warehouses outside Moscow, 600+ drones involved in strikes Sunday, Moscow, Wildberries warehouse Aug. 16 – Drones take out a Bastion launcher for hypersonics in Crimea. This is another early indicator that the Ukrainians are actively hunting Russian ballistic/hypersonic launchers because the Ukrainians are out of Patriot interceptor missiles. Aug. 17 – Zelensky replaced the commander of the Logistics Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Yury Pogrebnoi was appointed instead of Volodymyr Karpenko. This is another step in the overhaul of the AFU senior command. Pogrebnoi is 41 years old and comes from the Sumy region. He has served primarily in military logistics and technical support, and his prior job was deputy chief of logistics of Joint Forces East. Aug. 17 – Ukraine tests its first “Uravnitel” guided aerial bomb, and it is already being procured for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Roughly, Uravnitel in Ukrainian means “equalizer.” The bomb was developed by DG Industry. It features a 250-kilogram (550-pound) warhead and is capable of striking targets at a range of up to 130 kilometers (80 miles). Keep this in mind if you decide to read through to the Aug. 26 entry. The Ukrainians say it costs three times less than the American JDAM. Monday, this is a picture of the “Equalizer” glide bomb Aug. 18 – Yet another massed strike at Moscow, 600+ drones, Wildberries warehouse burned Aug. 18 – Fines issued in southern Russia for complaining about gasoline shortages. A court in Volgograd fined a local woman for griping about fuel station queues and outages, charging her under the article prohibiting participation in mass gatherings. Aug. 18 – Russian Banderole jet-powered drones hit the village of Pechenihy, Kharkiv region, 10 dead, 17 injured. The strike appears to have targeted wholly civilian structures: cafe, post office, shop, private houses. Rescue work, Kharkiv, Saturday Aug. 19-20 – Russia launches its long-awaited “big” strike, 45 missiles of which about 12-15 are ballistic missiles. The weapons came in two waves. Kyiv was the primary target and a border checkpoint in Odesa was the secondary target. One ballistic missile destroyed the top two stories of a five-story Kyiv apartment building. As of midday Thursday the casualty count was 16 dead and 45-50 injured. As per Ukraine air force policy, no stats were published on how many ballistic missiles were intercepted; based on air war networks, the figure for that probably is somewhere between “none” and “zero.” The Wednesday-Thursday strike vs. Kyiv mostly Aug. 20 – Drones hit six cargo ships off Tuapse, leaving one burning seriously, four more were hit on Aug. 24-25. Aug. 20 – Sevastopol – Authorities announced power shortages are so bad that the city is switching to a 2/6 electricity rationing, i.e., about two hours with power and up to six hours without power. Things have been much worse outside Crimea’s cities, with some outlying villages reporting no power – not making this up – for a month so far. Sevastopol, as the administrative and imperial heart of Russian occupation of Crimea, had managed to avoid serious blackouts. Not anymore. In this war, there is all sorts of data on how the Ukrainians blow things up in Russia. Blue is energy-related. Aug. 21 – Russians hit a superstore in Kryvyi Rih with a double-tap strike, ballistic missiles, 16 killed, 130+ injured. Aug. 22 – Ukrainian forces hits Ozon warehouse, Samara, fires. Samara, Chapevsk, Ozon warehouse, Saturday Aug. 22 Aug 22 – Substantial Russian strike, 200 drones, 10–20 missiles, Odesa and Kyiv targeted, seemingly railway and rail infrastructure primarily. Odesa was the primary target: 17 Banderol missiles, four Kh-59 and Kh-31 missiles, about 10 aerial bombs. Press enter or click to view image in full size Aug 22 – Saturday – Seaside holidaymaker fishes a Russian Shahed drone out of Odesa Bay. Aug 22 – The Oryol Region Governor calls on residents to report people with an accent to the FSB. This to reduce the Ukrainian drone strikes. Press enter or click to view image in full size St Petersburg, Saturday Aug. 23 – A peculiar short report flashed across the Ukrainian mil-blogger channels: An interdiction strike hit and destroyed an Iskander-M launch system in a Russian border region, i.e. Kursk or Belgorod, as part of a new campaign to hunt down Russian ballistic missile launchers. Attack system not identified. Later in the day Zelensky announces a shoot-the-archer operation in progress. Also this day, 413 USF Rgt Raid reports its drones interdicted/destroyed an S-400 system in Genzhelik. Press enter or click to view image in full size British Nyan drone confirmed in use by AFU – Sunday Press enter or click to view image in full size Probably enhanced image published by 61st Steppe Brigade on Aug. 23 Ukraine Flag Day. Aug. 24 – Ukraine and the USF marks Independence Day with record-quantity drone strikes:- 989. Stavropol, Nevinnoyskssk, Ozon warehouse, huge fire, Aug. 24- 990. Feodosia, radar, four hits, fires, Aug. 24- 991. Dagestan, Tiube, Ozon warehouse, fires, Aug. 24- 992. Rostov region, Kamenske-Shakhtinsk, military vehicle base, fires, Aug. 24- 993. Sevastopol, Saki region, power transformer, fires, outages, Aug. 24- 994. Crimea, Dzhankoe airfield, flight line, fires, Aug. 24- 995. Rostov region, Kazachia wind power farm, extensive fires, Aug. 24- 996. Krasnodar/Adygey, Takhamukaiskiy region, Ozon warehouse, fires, Aug. 24 Aug 25 – New wave of drone strikes, Russian RLS radar stations in Crimea and SW Russia, four hit on Monday, six on Tuesday. This is obviously a SEAD campaign that will precede… something. In retrospect, it seems fairly clear “something” took place two nights later. Aug 26 – Zelenesky meets w/ 1st and 3rd Corps, they will have responsibility for holding Donbas. Many obvious signs that the plan is to construct a drone wall. Press enter or click to view image in full size The battlefield: 3rd Corps in the north, 1st Corps in the south. Aug 27 – UA shoots down 7 ballistic missiles indicating a new delivery of Patriots as Zelensky stated. During the same night’s strikes a Shahed flies into Romania and blows up in a forest. No NATO air defense observed. Aug 27 – Rome announces it will transfer 4 x SAMP/T system to Ukraine, confirming Italian media reports the day before. At the same time Paris and Rome announce Ukraine has received a license to manufacture Astra-30 interceptor missiles. This would have been brilliant news in mid-2022. Aug 27 – Ukraine Air Force conducts mixed strike, SCALP missiles plus JDAM bombs. Two Russian army command HQs in Donetsk hit, heavy damage. 51 Army commander and staff reportedly killed in underground parking lot converted to command center; it appears six (!) SCALPs punctured the parking lot’s roof and blew up inside the command center.There was wide speculation that the second half of the strikes was carried out with US experimental JDAM-LR precision-guided bombs, which the US is only experimenting with and neither Washington nor Kyiv have mentioned as a possible sale to Ukraine. The key argument of the speculation was that the JDAM-LR can fly 150+ km and so might be launched safely outside the range of Russian air defenses, while the JDAM we know the Ukrainians have – JDAM-ER – only has a max range of 75 km or so and in practice the Ukrainian bombers can’t squeeze more than 45–50 km from the weapon, because they have to fly low to avoid Russian air defenses and glide bombs fly further if released at high altitude.If you’ve read this far you know the Ukrainians just tested their OWN JDAM-like glide bomb, and further, there was the SEAD strikes the Ukrainians had flown in SW Russia (next to Donetsk) in the past few days. So my sense is the Ukrainians either broke a hole in the Donetsk air defense coverage and sent a bomber into the gap, or, they waited for the Russian air defenses to go apesh*t from six incoming SCALP missiles and then timed the bomb drops for the point of maximum Russian air defense confusion. Or knowing the Ukrainians, they did both. But bottom line, this was a very sophisticated air strike that barely made news outside Ukraine. Press enter or click to view image in full size Sopylenok, Wednesday Press enter or click to view image in full size Kherson cat image, Thursday. This is a screen grab from an actual combat mission.In most countries the air force doesn’t have to crowd source airfield vehicles. Aug 28 – SBU drones hit Engels airfield, Tu-95M bomber is hit and its wing blown in two. Rare destruction of irreplaceable strategic bomber. Aug 28 – Bloomberg reports Ukraine hit record number of Russia oil refineries 21 hit, it was 18 in July. Four of Russia’s 10 largest refineries hit during August. Very wide targeting including Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Volga region, Yaroslavl and Moscow region. Russian crude processing is currently 3.8 million barrels/day for August; prewar August was 5.3–5.5 million b/d. Gasoline production down 20 percent on year, diesel production down 23 percent on year. Remember, the Allied bombing tactic that shut down the Wehrmacht was attacks against German fuel production. Damage is difficult to repair and it accumulates; meanwhile the military keeps drinking fuel. Nizhniy Novgorod, Kstovo oil refinery, Thursday Reprinted from Kyiv Post’s Special Military Correspondent Stefan Korshak’s blog. You can read his blog here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.