DR Congo Ebola outbreak may be three times larger than reported

Africa CDC says the Ebola outbreak in DR Congo has not yet peaked and may be far larger than reported. The warning highlights deep gaps in detection, contact tracing and early community reporting.Stock photo used for illustrationThe Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not yet peaked and could be three times bigger than the current known caseload, according to data from the authorities and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. The World Health Organisation has said the outbreak is on track to surpass the deadliest Ebola epidemic on record, the 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak.The latest outbreak has recorded 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths in Congo's eastern region. Health officials say its spread has been worsened by the constant movement of people, including those displaced by armed conflict, as well as distrust of medical authorities. Yap Boum, head of emergency preparedness and response at Africa CDC, said less than 10 per cent of cases are currently coming from known contacts, far below the 90-95 per cent level at which an outbreak can be considered under control.Boum told reporters on Thursday that current estimates suggest only 30-40 per cent of cases have been detected. Africa CDC data shows that by the 13th week after the outbreak was declared, it had recorded ten times more cases and seven times more deaths than the 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak had at the same stage. Compared with Congo's 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak, which had been the country's deadliest until now with 3,400 cases and more than 2,200 deaths, this outbreak is moving 18 times faster in confirmed cases and 13 times faster in deaths. Experts are also concerned that the outbreak may have begun spreading from the mining town of Mongbwalu as early as February, months before it was officially declared on May 15.On contact tracing, Africa CDC said data from the past three weeks showed an 82 per cent tracing rate out of 19,630 identified contacts. But the agency said that with an average of 60 contacts per confirmed case, it would have expected 99,780 contacts for the 1,663 cases confirmed during that period. Since many contacts are still unknown and cannot be followed up, the agency said the actual picture is much weaker and that the "actual contact tracing rate is only 16 per cent of the expected". The outbreak is being caused by the Bundibugyo virus, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments, unlike the most common Ebola virus type. Officials also said its milder symptoms may mean many patients do not quickly alert responders or seek treatment. The number of affected health zones has risen from three at the start of the outbreak to 56 across six provinces. In Bas-Uele, a province that had not previously been affected, two cases have been reported in the past week and a half in two separate parts of the province, according to government data. At the same time, some areas are seeing slower spread. South Kivu, for example, has not recorded a case for 79 days.Deaths outside Ebola treatment centres have risen steadily in recent days and made up 97 per cent of the deaths reported on August 17, according to Africa CDC data. Even so, only 20 per cent of health alerts are coming from communities. The overall fatality rate stands at 46.7 per cent, but it is far higher in some places, including North Kivu, where it is 68.2 per cent. The data suggests that many people are still not reporting symptoms early, or at all, because of misinformation that the outbreak is not real, a preference for traditional medicine, fear of being kept in isolation if initial symptoms turn out to be caused by something else, or because symptoms are not severe. Overall, the data points to an outbreak that is still expanding, with large gaps in detection, contact tracing and early reporting. With PTI Inputs- EndsPublished By: India Today Web Desk Published On: Aug 21, 2026 20:32 IST