Don’t blame Israel for Republican midterm losses

Asked by Ross Douthat of 60 Minutes to explain why Republicans suffered such a historic defeat last Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the No. 1 reason his party lost was that he was personally absent from the ballot.He then cited the Iran war and its effect on gas prices before naming Israel. “There seems to be a dislike for Israel,” Trump explained. Ugly anti-Jewish prejudice and dislike for Israel are indeed rampant on the Left and doubtlessly made some left-wing voters even keener to vote Democrat.But Trump isn’t the only one mentioning Israel as part of the explanation for the Republicans’ defeat. The day after the election, Vice President JD Vance cited an unnamed pollster who asked former Trump voters what it would take to win them back. The pollster said these voters wanted Republicans to end the war, focus on the cost of living, put America first, and … “change our relationship to Israel.” This sudden shift in focus from the administration’s record to Israel is odd, especially considering what the polling says.Weeks before Election Day, an October Fox News poll found that 60% of registered voters were extremely concerned about government corruption. That concern carried through to the ballot box. In the national exit poll, 55% of voters called corruption crucial to their vote. That was the highest share among the five issues tested, ahead of the cost of living at 49% and the Iran war at 34%. Voters who called corruption crucial backed Democrats for the House by 63% to 35%.On the cost of living, voters had a clear verdict on one of Trump’s signature policies. Two-thirds said his tariffs had hurt the national economy, while just 21% said they had helped. Nearly as many, 64%, said tariffs had hurt their local economy. And voters who said the tariffs had hurt the national economy backed Democrats for the House, 81% to 18%.Israel can be used by Republicans to deflect attention from the real causes of their defeat. Unfortunately, it is true that Americans have grown more critical of Israel.Pew Research Center found that 55% of Americans viewed Israel favorably in 2022. That fell to 45% last year and 37% this March. The decline is real. How much it mattered to voters last Tuesday is a separate question.CALIFORNIA VOTES TO STAY UNAFFORDABLEWhen Gallup asked registered voters in October how much each issue mattered to their vote for Congress, 35% called the Israeli-Palestinian situation extremely important, compared with 42% for gas prices, 47% for Iran, and 50% for the economy. Even that 35% includes voters on both sides of the issue, including people such as Sen.-elect Abdul el Sayed (D-MI), who blames Israel for literally everything, including high grocery prices. Vance’s unnamed pollster, by Vance’s own account, asked what might bring former Trump voters back.That tells us little about why they left. There’s clear evidence that Americans have soured on Israel, but scant evidence that this cost Republicans Congress.