Donald Trump’s power is on the wane. What next for Russia, Israel – and the rest of us? | Simon Tisdall

It was a victory for the world, too. People in the many countries that suffered pain, loss and cruel indignities at the hands of Donald Trump over the past two chaotic, fearful years celebrated a moment of glorious, shared redemption. The monster, like others of his kind, still lurks in his gilded White House lair; far-right authoritarianism still casts a dark shadow over many nations. But the power of this most destructive of presidents is shattered, his malignant spell broken. The triumphant roar of US midterm voters was a rallying cry of democratic defiance that, echoing the American revolution of 250 years ago, reverberated around the globe.For Iranians, Trump’s electoral humiliation raised hopes, perhaps misplaced, that his murderous war of choice against Tehran’s oppressive regime may soon cease. In Israel, many among the majority who voted for change last week will welcome the humbling of the foremost supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu’s as-yet-unvanquished extremist coalition. Ukrainians voiced optimism that a Democratic-controlled Congress will curb the sickening appeasement of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In Europe, the beginning of the end of the Trump era brought a sense of relief – and hope that toxic transatlantic relations can be drained of Maga poison.It’s clear Trump is now weaker internationally as well as domestically. Despite his fanciful denials and contemptible attempts to shift blame, the sweeping Democratic successes represented an unmistakably personal repudiation. For foreign friends and allies, as for many Americans, the miasma of menace, the aura of invincibility surrounding Trump since 2024, has been blown away at last. In a self-flagellating act of egotism that ignored his rock-bottom approval ratings, he asked voters to pretend he was on the ballot. They obliged in huge numbers – and, acting as proxies for democrats the world over, offered him a tumescent middle finger.Trump’s diminished lame duck status, and frustration that he is no longer the centre of attention, could aggravate old tensions and spark new explosions. For all his talk of deal-making, he rarely compromises. If thwarted, he gets angry, doubles down, lashes out. That’s why Iranian celebrations may prove premature. Egged on by Netanyahu (as long as he’s in power), commander-in-chief Trump could yet defy chastened Republicans such as the vice-president, JD Vance, and resume and expand the war – not least to avenge the Tehran-engineered Middle East oil shock that so alienated voters.Settling the decades-long Iran nuclear standoff is a key legacy issue for Trump, increasingly obsessed with his place in history. Another legacy issue is Russia. He has gone to embarrassing lengths to reward war criminal Putin and punish Ukraine for being invaded. Trump regards the conflict as an obstacle to normalised ties with Moscow and lucrative bilateral energy, investment and trade deals. He clings to a vague idea of performing a “reverse Nixon” – befriending Russia to strategically disadvantage China. He’d like a Nobel peace prize, too. But ending the war for the sake of Ukraine’s besieged people is not Trump’s motivation. He cares little for the thousands of civilians killed, maimed or traumatised by Russian bombs.Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, 15 August 2025. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/ReutersParadoxically, Trump’s weakness could hasten a ceasefire. Putin, beset by battlefield failures and deepening economic problems, knows his best chance of a face-saving outcome is to cut a deal while Trump remains in office. Herein lies grave danger for Ukraine and its allies. Trump’s amateurish negotiators may redouble their push for territorial and other concessions from Kyiv, disregarding its sovereign rights and Europe’s wider security. To force Kyiv’s capitulation on his terms, Trump may double down on his withholding of weapons and intelligence support and refusal to offer credible security guarantees - and to hell with the consequences and the precedent.Trump retains huge latitude in directing US defence and foreign policy independently of Congress. But after Democrats take charge of both chambers in January, he and senior officials are certain to face intense scrutiny over executive actions, budgets, and alleged corruption and abuses of power. One early political casualty could be his pet weasel, the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth (although he’ll probably escape public execution). If Trump is impeached again, as some Democrats demand, he will have less time to worry about his international legacy.Most US policies will not shift significantly between now and 2028. Any new Israeli government is likely to continue to deny basic Palestinian rights in Gaza and the West Bank, more or less supported by Washington. Trump could make nice with Europe and Canada by de-escalating tariff wars. Or he could enact previous threats to abandon Nato and the common defence of Europe – for him, another twisted “legacy” issue. There’s a risk he could foist Venezuela-style regime change on Cuba. Meanwhile, an altogether smarter autocrat, China’s Xi Jinping, will continue to run rings around him. Urgently needed agreements to halt nuclear weapons proliferation are nowhere in sight; nor is an end to White House climate emergency denial. On the other hand, the Democrats, once they hold the purse strings, could and should move swiftly to fully restore the overseas aid budget.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAt this tantalisingly uncertain moment of global redemption, can Trump redeem himself? It would be nice to think that, stung by an unambiguous national vote of no confidence and a powerful popular reassertion of American democracy, he will atone for his sins. It’s not so hard, Donald. Take the advice of the rapper Ice T, who said: “Redemption just means you just make a change in your life and you try to do right, versus what you were doing, which was wrong”. Yet such late-stage metamorphosis is improbable. Aged 80, stuck in his ways, learning nothing, never listening, slipping into senility, profane, vulgar and hugging outdated prejudices like a comfort blanket, Trump, “the angry duck”, is too far gone to change.In prospect are two more years of presidential overreach, interference in other countries’ affairs, egotistical foreign policy posturing, damaging economic rows and overseas military adventurism. Yet the tide is turning against him. Progressive election victories in Hungary, Serbia, Brazil and now the US have reinvigorated and refreshed global democracy. Next up, Spain, then France in 2027. More historic defeats for the far-right, ultra-nationalist populists who believed Trump and Maga were invincible are now a glorious possibility. It’s all about trumping Trump. Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator