Donald Trump’s Lebanon Race

Excerpt Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and his allies tout last month’s Washington visit as a success. Rightly so. President Donald Trump sent Aoun home with political, economic, and security inducements to pull Lebanon toward Washington before Tehran could exploit the US-Iran ceasefire process to preserve Hezbollah. The strategy is sound; its execution is not. Washington’s rewards are outpacing Beirut’s implementation of the June 26 Framework Agreement, which conditions new US assistance and phased Israeli withdrawal on verified, nationwide Lebanese action against Hezbollah. Paying in advance risks surrendering the leverage needed to secure those results. The urgency in Washington and Tehran stems from Hezbollah’s battlefield reversals. Since the group attacked Israel in October 2023, Israel has killed much of its senior leadership and hundreds of mid-level commanders while destroying much of its arsenal and infrastructure. Near-daily Israeli strikes after the November 2024 ceasefire impeded Hezbollah’s recovery. Days after the Iran War began on February 28, Hezbollah attacked northern Israel, triggering a renewed, more ferocious Israeli offensive. Iran needed to end that war and Israel’s interminable attrition campaign. In April, Tehran leveraged Washington’s pursuit of an Iran ceasefire to secure a parallel truce in Lebanon and return decisions over Hezbollah’s arsenal exclusively to Lebanese hands, as the group demanded —moving the issue into an arena favoring its regeneration. Hezbollah’s substantial Shia support has kept Lebanon’s political and military leaders fearful that forcible disarmament could ignite civil conflict. A domestic process can therefore be delayed, diluted, or reduced to cosmetic enforcement, giving Hezbollah room to rebuild. Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as US foreign policy toward the region. David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.