Dollar Rebounds From Record Low but Year-End Could Favor the Colón Again

The U.S. dollar posted its strongest week against the Costa Rican colón in months, but the gain is small next to a slide that began in mid-2022, and at least one economist expects the colón to regain ground as the year closes. On the Foreign Currency Market (Monex), the dollar closed Friday, Sept. 25, at ₡454.70, up ₡6.92 from ₡447.78 a week earlier. It was the highest close since June 29, when the dollar ended at ₡454.94, and it came just over a week after a record low of ₡446.80 on Sept. 17. Rates at the bank window are wider than Monex. As of late Friday afternoon, every bank was buying dollars at ₡436 or more, while Banco de Costa Rica, Banco Nacional and Banco Popular were selling at ₡462. Other private operators were selling between ₡460 and ₡463. In practical terms, someone selling $1,000 at a bank on Friday would have received at least ₡436,000, while someone buying $1,000 at one of the three state banks would have paid about ₡462,000. The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reference rate for Saturday was ₡450.38 to buy and ₡455.60 to sell. Trading was lighter during the rebound. A total of $161.06 million changed hands on Monex over five sessions, compared with $195.97 million in four sessions the previous week, when a holiday closed the market on Tuesday. The Central Bank bought $56.06 million on Monex this week to cover dollar demand from the non-bank public sector, down from $78.70 million the week before. It did not buy dollars to build its own reserves or carry out stabilization operations to smooth the price. Dollar supply from the public remained strong. From Monday to Thursday, banks and other exchange intermediaries bought $622.08 million from customers and sold $541.95 million, leaving a surplus of $80.13 million, according to BCCR data. In other words, customers sold more dollars than they bought. Whether the rebound lasts may depend on the calendar. Federico Quesada Chaves, director of the School of Administrative Sciences at the State Distance University (UNED), said the dollar could face renewed downward pressure in the final months of 2026. He pointed to the extra foreign currency that typically enters the market with aguinaldo payments, bonuses, holiday purchases and year-end business operations, beginning around late October and early November. Quesada described that as a possible scenario rather than a certain decline. He also said that a new Eurobond placement, if the government raises dollars abroad and converts them into colones locally, could add to the supply of dollars. No such placement has been confirmed. UNED noted that the Central Bank holds more than $20 billion in reserve assets. The Central Bank board recently kept its monetary policy rate at 3%, citing slower local growth and international tensions. Quesada has listed a lower policy rate and changes to banks’ reserve requirements among the tools that could ease pressure on the dollar. He noted that those decisions rest with the independent Central Bank. The colón’s long run of strength has costs for businesses that earn in dollars but pay salaries, rent and services in colones. Shirley Calvo, executive director of the National Chamber of Tourism (Canatur), has cited the currency’s appreciation as one factor weighing on small tourism businesses. Figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) show that tourism-related employment fell by 20,137 jobs between the second quarter of 2024 and the same period of 2026. For households, Quesada advised keeping debts in the same currency as income to limit exposure to swings in the exchange rate. Even after this week’s gain, the dollar sits only about ₡8 above its record low. The final quarter, when seasonal dollar inflows usually build, should show whether the rebound marks a turn or a pause.