Does MAGA have a future? After anti-Trump backlash in midterms, it may not.

Washington | Nov. 04, 2026, 5:45 p.m. ET | 5 min read “Pretend I’m on the ballot,” President Donald Trump repeatedly urged, as he crisscrossed the country ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.Voters frustrated by President Trump’s practices and policies – including a costly war against Iran that has fueled inflation – did just that, seizing the opportunity to vote against him by pulling the lever for Democrats. And despite Mr. Trump’s urging, many Republicans, including adherents of his Make America Great Again movement, or MAGA, stayed home.The result, a massive backlash against the Republican Party that handed Democrats control of Congress and a majority of governorships, was the biggest “wave” election in the modern history of U.S. midterms when measured by the vote margin, Democrat vs. Republican. Tuesday’s results even surpassed the “revolution” of 1994, when Newt Gingrich swept into power as House speaker. Then, Republicans won the popular vote by 6.8 percentage points. In 2018, Mr. Trump’s first midterms as president, the Democrats won by 8.6 percentage points. This year, with ballots still being counted, the Democrats lead the popular vote by 13.8 percentage points.Already, with two years to go in the Trump presidency, political observers are gaming out the future of his MAGA movement. Signs point to profound changes, as the unique figure at its center – Mr. Trump – navigates the final phase of his tenure.“Unless there are other very high-profile candidates who can generate some coattail effects, I don’t think there’s a future for Trump’s movement post-Trump,” says Jennifer Lawless, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. What comes next is to be determined. But with the Republican electoral coalition in shambles, the GOP will need to regroup and plot a path forward. Jockeying for the 2028 presidential race is gearing up – and with it, clear signs of a post-Trump era in the works. While Mr. Trump sought to blame Republican candidates and Fox News, but not himself, for the thumping his party took on Tuesday, his deputy effectively pointed a finger at him by blaming the Iran war, which the president initiated in February alongside Israel.“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X in a lengthy post Wednesday morning.Another high-profile Republican, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who ran unsuccessfully against Mr. Trump for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, may be in a stronger position following Republican victories in his state’s gubernatorial and Senate races. Florida, the third most populous state in the country, was once a key electoral battleground, but under Governor DeSantis, it has established itself as a GOP stronghold. Mark Schiefelbein/APFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis greets President Donald Trump as he arrives on Air Force One, Oct. 23, 2026, at Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers, Florida. Mr. DeSantis, who is wrapping up his second term and was not eligible to run again, has worked to distance himself from Mr. Trump – and may now be well-positioned to run for president again as a new kind of post-Trump Republican.Even Florida GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who broke with Mr. Trump in September over his administration’s immigration enforcement efforts, won reelection despite a strong challenge from a Hispanic Democrat. Nationwide, Latino support for Republicans declined sharply this year, compared with 2024.At a press conference Wednesday in Tallahassee, Mr. DeSantis drove home the significance of Tuesday’s Republican victories in the Sunshine State, calling the 2026 midterms nationwide “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans.” “In January, when everyone in office leaves, who were either term-limited or got voted out of the 10 largest states in this union, only one state will have Republican control of their state: the state of Florida,” Mr. DeSantis said.The Florida results came in sharp contrast to Texas, which elected a Hispanic Democratic woman, Gina Hinojosa, as governor in an upset over GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.Still, Mr. DeSantis’ successes Tuesday hardly suggest a MAGA-style movement of his own akin to his fellow Floridian’s. Despite his challenges and perceived mistakes, Mr. Trump brings charisma and performative skills that few others, including Mr. DeSantis, possess in public life.Vice President Vance, another charismatically challenged Republican with an eye on 2028, faces a dual problem: He is seen as tied at the hip to Mr. Trump, but he has also now effectively broken with the president over the Iran war and Tuesday’s midterm rout. Mr. Vance began his political career as anti-Trump, and may never have fully won over the president’s base. But it may be even harder now for him to inherit the MAGA movement.Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another former Trump adversary turned ally – and another Floridian – is also a potential contender for 2028. And while his role in the Trump administration could weigh him down with the broader electorate, including disillusioned Republicans, he has yet to do anything that would sever his ties to the MAGA base. Evan Vucci/ReutersPresident Donald Trump watches the final steel beam go into the White House ballroom under construction in Washington, Nov. 4, 2026. Then there’s the question of Mr. Trump himself, and how the fading of the MAGA movement could affect his final two years in the White House. The incoming Democratic majorities in the House and Senate raise questions about whether the president might be impeached again. Heading into the midterms, Democrats were divided over the wisdom of pursuing a third impeachment, even if they felt there were ample grounds, including defiance of court orders and subpoenas, and the inappropriate use of federal funds. Mr. Trump shined a light on his unauthorized use of executive power when he spoke Wednesday afternoon at the construction site of the White House ballroom. Last year, he tore down the White House’s East Wing without congressional approval, paving the way for the ballroom to be built. That is just one of many actions he has taken since returning to office that exceed the bounds of his authority, critics say. That effort is now tied up in litigation.Until now, Democratic leaders tended to think impeachment would be pointless – and potentially even empowering for Mr. Trump – as gaining a two-thirds majority in the Senate for conviction was seen as impossible. Now, with the president on his back foot after the midterm shellacking, and the GOP staring down two more years of an unrestrained Mr. Trump, the idea of getting a dozen or so Republican senators to vote to remove him from office seems less difficult to imagine. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. One point potentially working in Mr. Trump’s favor is his stated willingness to work with the Democrats when they take the majority.“They’ve already called, and they want to talk about things, and that’s fine,” the president told reporters Wednesday at the ballroom construction site. He added that he will “probably get along with the Democrats” unless they want to be “destructive.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.