Ditching triple lock could cost Burnham the next election, poll shows

Andy Burnham could lose support from Labour voters at the next election if he fails to commit to keeping the triple lock in the manifesto, a poll for The i Paper has revealed. Speculation has been rife at the party’s conference in Liverpool that the Prime Minister could water down protection of the state pension funding mechanism as he looks for ways to pay for a national care service. More than half of all voters – 53 per cent – want to see the triple lock remain in place, while 13 per cent are opposed, according to the survey by BMG Research. Shorts But among people who voted Labour at the last election, support for the measure – under which the state pension rises by whichever is highest out of average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent – is a more substantial 56 per cent. There is also overwhelming support for the measure among Reform voters, suggesting Burnham’s fight to fend off Nigel Farage on polling day could be all the more difficult if he chooses to gamble with scrapping the triple lock. The scale of Burnham’s battle Four times as many people support the triple lock as oppose the triple lock – 53 per cent to 13 per cent. Some 19 per cent neither support nor oppose it, while 16 per cent said they did not know. This underscores the scale of the Prime Minister’s battle to convince voters that losing the cast iron protection, first introduced by David Cameron’s coalition government in 2011, is worth it to fund a full social care service for all who need it, free at the point of use. However, there has been a shift towards opposition to the triple lock. The proportion of all voters who support it has fallen slightly since May 2025, when 57 per cent of people backed it. And the proportion of Britons who oppose it has risen over the same period – from 7 per cent in May 2025 to 13 per cent now. While public opinion is still stacked against scrapping it, it shows that some of the support is soft and could be further eroded over the next three years. Those who said they “strongly support” the triple lock make up 30 per cent, while 23 per cent say they “somewhat support” it. Younger voters could hold the key Unsurprisingly, the youngest voters, 18 to 24-year-olds, are the only age group more in favour of scrapping the triple lock than keeping it. Just 23 per cent of them support the mechanism, while 29 per cent are opposed. After the age of 25, more voters are in favour of the triple lock than are against it. Burnham’s courting of the youth vote, through viral clips on TikTok, is well documented. And the next election will be the first ever in the UK where 16 and 17-year-olds have the vote. There is also a strong argument to be made that, by the time of the 2029 election, pensioners will have enjoyed nearly two decades of their state pension incomes protected, while younger generations have struggled with a combination of rising rents, higher youth unemployment and gloomy prospects due to poor economic growth. Among 25 to 34-year-olds, 40 per cent are in favour of the triple lock while 14 per cent oppose it. This breakdown is broadly the same among voters up to the age of 54, according to the BMG poll. But after the age of 55, backing for the triple lock soars as people contemplate retirement. Among the 55 to 64 age group, 63 per cent support the measure while just 7 per cent are against it. And for those aged 65 and over, 80 per cent are in favour while just 4 per cent are opposed. Scrapping the triple lock will be a key 2029 battleground The poll shows that support for the state pension mechanism is stronger towards the right of the political spectrum – suggesting that Reform and the Conservatives could lean into this issue to shore up their power bases at the next election. It also shows the risk of the political gamble Burnham could be prepared to take on. Labour will be desperate to win over Reform voters at the next election, as well as appeal to wavering voters who are sceptical about it being scrapped. Among those who voted Reform in 2024, 68 per cent support the triple lock, while just 5 per cent are opposed. For those who say they plan to vote for Farage’s party at the next election, backing for the triple lock is still substantial – 62 per cent, with 9 per cent opposed. Among those who voted Tory in 2024, 70 per cent support the triple lock, while just 9 per cent are opposed. People planning to vote Conservative in 2029 are still overwhelmingly in favour of keeping it – 69 per cent versus 12 per cent. Some 56 per cent of 2024 Labour voters are in favour of the triple lock, compared to 14 per cent against. The figures do suggest an opportunity for Burnham, however: support for the triple lock among those who plan to vote Labour in 2029 has dipped slightly, to 52 per cent, with 14 per cent opposed. What would the public want instead? If Burnham does decide to ditch the triple lock at the next election, the public would likely be divided over what should replace it, the poll suggests. However, these figures do suggest that, if there is a proper debate about alternatives, voters would appear to accept a “single” or “double” lock version which still offered some protection to the state pension. Three in five voters would be happy for a “single lock” under which the state pension would rise in line with average wages. Around a quarter – 24 per cent – say it should rise higher than average wages, while 6 per cent say it should increase at less than that rate. If presented with a menu of options, a link to inflation would be the most popular possible replacement – 28 per cent would back this option. Some 16 per cent would want it to rise in line with wages, while a further 16 per cent say it should rise with wages in the long run but would want it to be protected in the years when prices rise faster than wages – a form of double lock. Just 8 per cent would want it to go up by 2.5 per cent a year, even if wages and prices were rising more slowly. BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,515 British adults between 23 and 24 September. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.