Did the Bay Area just save its transit system from the brink of certain death?

Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area overwhelmingly approved two transit measures this week that advocates hope will save the region’s financially distressed public transit agencies from a potential death spiral that could have had massive repercussions for the area’s residents and its economy.The Regional Transit Measure (RTM), a 0.5% sales tax across four Bay Area counties and a 1% sales tax in San Francisco, will generate approximately $1bn annually to fund the region’s four largest transit operators. It received a strong 62.2% support across all five counties that voted on the measure, winning with a landslide of 78.6% in San Francisco.In San Francisco, 73.6% of voters also approved a parcel tax to fund Muni, the first publicly owned and operated transit agency in a major US city.Had the measures not passed, Bay Area Rapid Transit (Bart) would be forced to close as many as 15 stations as soon as early next year, dramatically reducing frequency of service and increasing the cost of rides and parking. Caltrain, a commuter rail that connects San Francisco with the South Bay region, would have closed 10 stations and ended weekend service. And Muni, the city of San Francisco’s main transit system, would have been forced to reduce a third of its service, eliminate 20 bus lines and suspend its iconic streetcars and cable cars. All agencies would have had to end evening services.Less frequent service and fewer stations would have meant less fare revenue, fewer commuters and a downward cascade of financial austerity, creating a transit doom spiral that would have left Bay Area residents without reliable, affordable ways to get around the sprawling metropolis. The potential impacts were enormous in a region formed around a large body of water, where the freeways and bridges are notoriously jammed with traffic.A recent report authored by Laura Tolkoff, transportation policy director for the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association, estimated traffic delays on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, which sees roughly 3.5m crossings a month, and other chokepoints around the region would have more than doubled during peak hours.A Bart station in San Francisco on 5 September 2025. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty ImagesBay Area transit agencies were left uniquely exposed to the low ridership during the pandemic given their dependence on fares for operating revenue and the region’s nation-leading shift to remote and hybrid work. As pandemic relief funds were set to expire and the fiscal cliff came into view, transit advocates shifted gears into action.In 2023, Connect Bay Area organizer Lian Chang got involved with the fight to save public transit when she made coffins and replicas of local trains and buses out of cardboard for a mock funeral procession in front of city hall. Those cardboard replicas have done considerable mileage since, some needing new paint jobs as they circulated from press conferences to campaign events and rallies, Chang said.She had no experience campaigning then, but has since helped rally volunteers in painting many banker boxes into buses and trains to carry the signatures that got the measures on the ballot, adding a playful and visually striking element to the campaign.The biggest challenge, Chang found, was finding ways to get transit riders to self-identify and organize themselves into a constituency. To create a sense of pride among transit riders, who tend to be immigrants, children, seniors and lower-income people, she worked with local designers to make buttons to hand out on specific bus lines slated for cuts. This also helped recruit more volunteer signature-gatherers.In the end, thousands of volunteers collected 77,000 of the 305,000 signatures that qualified the measure for the ballot, which, according to the Connect Bay Area campaign, is the highest number in recent memory. “We don’t know of any larger signature-gathering mobilization in the Bay Area,” said Chang.Lian Chang wearing swag made for the Connect Bay Area transit campaign by local designers. Photograph: Courtesy of Lian ChangThe measures could still face legal challenges from anti-tax groups, as past transit initatives have faced, tying up the funds in escrow accounts for years.“The Public Transit Revenue Measure District is prepared to vigorously defend the will of the voters and the validity of the measure,” said Rebecca Long of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the agency in charge of administering the RTM funds.Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for Connect Bay Area, the coalition that backed the two initiatives, wants to keep the momentum high so voters aren’t facing another transit catastrophe when the measures expire in about 15 years.“This is an opportunity for us to go to the state and say, we need to change how we do this, not just here, but in other parts of the state,” said Cretan.Compared with other world-class regions in the United States and beyond, California has historically underinvested in the public transit of its urban centers, despite priding itself on robust climate policies.A 2022 report from the California Air Resources Board said for the state to meet its own climate goals, existing public transit networks would need to double their capacity and service frequency by 2030. Bart, AC Transit, Caltrain and Muni make up 30% of the state’s transit ridership. Yet, only 5% of Bart’s operating revenue comes from the state.Tuesday’s election also brought a wave of new leadership to the state. Transit advocates already see an ally in state senator Scott Wiener, who co-authored the transit measures and won his bid to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress.But they are also hopeful governor-elect Xavier Becerra will prioritize public transit after seeing strong support from Bay Area voters, despite not making it a central issue of his gubernatorial campaign. (Becerra’s campaign did not return the Guardian’s request for comment.)“I hope that Governor Becerra and elected representatives take note of the messages voters just sent: transit is not controversial – it’s essential and it’s incredibly popular,” said Tolkoff.