Despite Kremlin’s Claims – European Arms Sales Grow, Russia’s Fall

Figures published by the Russian Center for the Analysis of World Arms Trade (TSAMTO), claim Moscow has exported around $15 billion worth of arms and weapons, which it says is equivalent to 12.55 percent of the global volume. The pro-Kremlin news site www1.ru published the figures, without questioning the data, on Sept. 24.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. However, the article does somewhat signal questions about the reliability of the figures. It says the Russian figure has “a special status in the ranking methodology,” as “open statistics for Russia after 2022” – the year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – “are currently not available.” It states the $15 billion “represents an expert assessment by the center’s analysts.” Russia’s figures contradict the assessment made by Sweden’s Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) figures for 2025, published in March 2026, which TSAMTO has dismissed as being “unverified.” Ukraine’s Defense News on Monday cited Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) which explains the disparity between the figures claimed by TSAMTO and those of SIPRI. SZRU says the Swedish figures are based on the actual records for the transfers of weapons systems while Russia’s are based on the Kremlin’s claims. SZRU categorizes this as a “familiar tactic” where unfavorable figures are simply replaced with those the Kremlin wants to promote. Other Topics of Interest WATCH: Ukraine Says Russian Troops Led Children Into Gas Pipeline to Cover Retreat Children, older residents, and a person on crutches were led into a gas pipeline as Russian forces withdrew, Khartiia says. Fact verses fiction In its March survey of the global arms trade between 2016 and 2025, SIPRI said the volume of major arms transfers had increased by 9.2 percent. According to SIPRI, the biggest increase, 9.7 percent of all arms transfers went to Ukraine – a direct result of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion – and similar increases among European states, some of which tripled their imports between 2021 and 2025. European suppliers also moved into the “top 10” of exporters with France, Germany and Italy leading the way. The US, which is historically the world’s largest supplier of arms, also saw an increase of 27 percent, globally, but a staggering 217 percent increase in US arms exports to Europe. Meanwhile, it said arms imports to all other world regions had decreased. According to SIPRI, Russia saw its arms exports fall by a colossal 64 percent during the period – with its share of global arms exports shrinking from 21 percent in 2016–20 to 6.8 percent in 2021–25 (almost half the figure Moscow claims), with the bulk of its sales going to India (48 percent), China (13 percent) and Belarus (13 percent). These figures underlined the ZSRU assessment that, despite Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s best efforts, Russia’s share of the global arms market, and by implication its standing in then world, has fallen to its lowest level since arms sales statistics were first published – including during Soviet times. A full breakdown of SIPRI’s assessment of global arms transfers in 2025 is available at: https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-international-arms-transfers-2025 Steve Brown After a career as a British Army Ammunition Specialist and Bomb Disposal Officer, Steve later worked in the fields of ammunition destruction, demining and explosive ordnance disposal with the UN and NATO. In 2017, after taking early retirement, he moved to Ukraine with his Ukrainian wife and two sons where he became a full-time writer. He now works as a senior writer and English language editor with the Kyiv Post.