Despite his best efforts, Trump is winning in Iran

In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America. Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture. You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.Survival isn’t victory. Yet, many critics of the Iran war base their arguments around this category error. It’s true that President Donald Trump, as he often does, undermined his case by making preposterously optimistic predictions and overstating the ease with which the Iranian regime could be subdued. Since then, the president has issued dozens of empty dire threats against the regime, sent his vice president to capitulate to the clerics, and dithered away his initial momentum. And yet, by any historical standard, the United States is still winning. For two months now, the U.S. blockade has prevented the clerics from exporting much oil — Iran’s only real means of revenue. According to satellite imagery, Iran’s central ports are basically lifeless. At the same time, the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been steadily degraded and exposed. From the beginning, Iran’s blockade has been largely predicated on the ability to intimidate carriers and insurance companies rather than actually hitting ships. Axios reported that American officials found that of “200 mine-like objects” that had been swept from the main lane of the strait, “only 11 of them were actual mines and just a few were properly deployed.” Meanwhile, the United States continues to hit coastal radar and surveillance sites. None of this is to say there is no danger, but as time goes on, Iran will be weaker, and the world will continue figuring out ways to traverse the blockade.Goldman Sachs already estimates that oil traffic out of the Persian Gulf is at two-thirds of the pre-war average. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says nearly 9 million barrels are moving through the strait each day, while another nearly 7 million are leaving the gulf through alternative means such as pipelines. The southern corridor of the strait that is nearer Oman is largely open. (AP Photos; graphic by Grace Hagerman/Washington Examiner) Still, critics inevitably point to high oil prices as proof that Iran has the upper hand, as if any negative consequences in a conflict immediately equate to “losing.” There was gas rationing during World War II. That didn’t mean the Axis had us on the ropes. Pundits and politicians who see everything through the prism of the next election do not contemplate the world that exists for Iran’s tyrants on the present trajectory.One option is to return to the negotiating table and hope the administration will be manipulated by Qatar and Pakistan on behalf of an Islamic regime so it can retrench and stall. Though this has been an unfortunate cycle for decades, it seems unlikely the administration will allow itself to be embarrassed again.Another option is to escalate the conflict. What’s the upside of watching a barely functioning military further devastated? In the meantime, the restive population would still be living under economic-crushing sanctions. This option also risks igniting Trump’s ire and imperiling critical civilian infrastructure, triggering complete collapse. The clerics and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are likely attempting to wait out the Trump presidency and pray for a Democrat or a Republican isolationist to win the next American presidential election. What does the Iranian political situation look like with two years of empty ports and depressed oil production? And, finally, Iran could always make the bare concessions. It’s clear, after all, that Trump wants to extricate himself from the situation. The problem is we’re not dealing with rational people but apocalyptic Twelver Shia cultists. The central reason Iran shouldn’t have nukes. Of course, most “anti-war” voices never opposed acting against Iran because they were concerned that the president would fail to meet his stated objectives of toppling the regime and ending Iran’s nuclear program. Most have no interest in acting against clerics who’ve murdered and kidnapped Americans for decades, spread terrorism through their proxies, and undermined our interests around the world. Some — the Iranian shills from the Obama era come to mind — want the Islamic regime to win because they hope it will rise to a regional power and remain an enemy of Israel. But it’s worth remembering that while Trump’s predictions for a quick conflict were wrong, so were most critics’ warnings. Democrats, right-wing isolationists, think tank experts, and others have forever warned that conflict in Iran would lead to a world war. You could fill a book with quotes from alleged experts who brought up the specter of World War III. Tucker Carlson predicted that Iran’s “fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles” would “easily kill thousands of Americans.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) claimed that the Iran conflict would deteriorate into another “endless war” in the Middle East. This endless war is now less than six months old, and Iran has no navy, its top-tier leadership has been killed, its missile defense system is virtually non-existent, its missile-launching capabilities are depleted, and its drone manufacturing sites have been largely destroyed. The notion that the United States was going to “lose” a war to the Islamic Republic in any traditional understanding of the term was hyped by people who convinced us that a non-nuclear Iran was a sophisticated military and economic power. It was always wish-casting. ‘OCT. 7 ISN’T OVER YET’Still, every war comes with sacrifice. This one is no exception. Which is why the Iran conflict is unpopular. The case for it has been poor, and the messaging has been muddled. But those who see a horizon that extends past a few months’ time should still see it as a potential win. Just because a war doesn’t unfold as planned doesn’t mean you’ve failed. There is still time to blow it, of course. But there is also a path to victory.