Democrats want to compete in the South in 2028. They see black voters as the key

Black voters delivered Democrats a series of shocking victories in last week’s midterm elections, renewing debate that the path to the White House in 2028 could run through the South.Political leaders are calling for national Democratic support in Southern states to increase before the next presidential contest, and for 2028 hopefuls to prioritize black voter outreach.“I have been singing this from the mountaintops, for anyone who would listen, that the South is a pathway to not only regaining the White House but maintaining it for generations to come,” said Dallas Jones, a Texas Democratic strategist who led statewide African American engagement for Lone Star Rising PAC, which supported James Talarico’s successful Senate run. “The proof is in the pudding that the South has never had a population problem,” he continued. “We’ve had an investment problem, and that the powers that be, whether that be the national party or any of our affiliate organizations, have not made the investments necessary where the most loyal and defined voters of our base reside.”Early statistics show that black voters cast ballots at higher rates than in the 2022 midterm elections in part because of backlash at the Trump administration’s handling of the economy and the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision, which weakened the Voting Rights Act and led to the elimination of several historically black congressional districts.The increased turnout led to surprising results, such as in Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom is on the verge of defeating Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS). Colom would become the first black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction.If Colom succeeds, part of his victory can be attributed to increased black turnout. According to elections analyst G. Elliott Morris, black voters made up 33% of Mississippi’s electorate this cycle, up 3 percentage points from 2024.“And that turnout boost among Black voters could be the deciding factor in Colom’s win,” Morris wrote. “According to calculations by Strength In Numbers, with 2024’s electorate and this year’s vote choices, Republican Hyde-Smith would have won by about 4 percentage points.”In majority-black counties in the Black Belt, a rural region across the South known for its historically large black population and dark, fertile soil, “Democratic Senate candidates’ average vote shares universally exceeded the Black population shares, ranging from Scott Colom in Mississippi, who outran the Black population in vote share by 2.6 points, to Roy Cooper, who did so by 9.3 points,” according to VoteHub.A Brookings Institution analysis of the midterm elections showed that President Donald Trump received 15% of the black vote in 2024 (an increase of 8% from the 2020 election), but in 2026, House Republicans only received 8% of the black vote.“The substantial decrease in the Black vote for Republicans is attributable to two big changes that affected these voters. The first was the Supreme Court’s Callais decision which significantly weakened the Voting Rights Act,” wrote Elaine Kamarck and William Galston. “And the second, related to the first, was the Republican-led mid-decade redistricting which wiped out many formerly majority-minority districts represented by African Americans.”Black turnout in Georgia hit a midterm record in 2026, at 1.37 million voters, according to Emory University political scientist Bernard Fraga. It helped Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) easily win reelection.In North Carolina, 600,000 black people voted early, about 95% of the nearly 630,000 black voters who cast ballots in 2022. Those figures helped Democrats not only win the competitive 11th and 1st congressional districts, where Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) prevailed against a redrawn district that favored the GOP, but also helped Democrats Cyril Jefferson, Paul Barringer, and Lakesha Womack defeat Republican Reps. Addison McDowell, Brad Knott, and Tim Moore, all without spending from the national party.Two black Democrats came up close in Southern Senate seats absent significant national investment.Florida Democrat Angie Nixon narrowly lost to Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) by roughly 3 percentage points, and Sen.-elect Julia Letlow (R-LA) barely beat Democrat Jamie Davis by 1.76 percentage points in the Louisiana Senate contest, prompting criticism that national Democrats didn’t do enough to help win the seat.Those results are raising eyebrows that Democrats could be competitive in states previously considered deep-red enclaves, but they also stirred criticism at the national party for not spending resources in those close contests.“If there was some additional investment, perhaps they would have had more resources to get their message out, and we could have picked up two new seats,” said Jones, the Texas operative. “I am hopeful that everyone understands what’s at stake. And listen, I’m not talking about the next election cycle. I’m talking about right now, today. We need to be figuring out how to get resources into these states in preparation for the next election cycle.”Former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder, the nation’s first black governor, told the Washington Examiner that “putting money in the right hands” would be crucial for Democrats ahead of 2028.“What the recent elections just showed us is that you can’t write certain areas off because they happen to be in the South, like Georgia, like Mississippi, like Louisiana,” he said. “You can win anywhere if you have the right candidates with the right message who are there for the people. The most important thing is to be for the people and listen to them.”A Democratic National Committee spokesperson said the party will continue to prioritize black voters as the 2028 presidential campaign heats up.“Ahead of the critical 2026 midterm elections, the DNC invested heavily in Black voters both in the South and across the country,” DNC national political director Shelby Wiltz said in a statement. “With phenomenal Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, Black voters powered historic victories from South Carolina and North Carolina to Georgia, Texas, and Florida. As we look to 2028, Black voters will continue to be a critical part of the winning Democratic coalition. From South Carolina opening the presidential primary to our expanded battleground map, the DNC will double down on our organize everywhere strategy, meet voters where they are, and work to earn every vote.”Potential 2028 hopefuls have already begun heading south, starting with Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), who announced he will make two trips to South Carolina, the first state in the Democratic presidential primary, this month.Former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel traveled to Dallas, Texas, on Tuesday and then will visit New Mexico on Wednesday. He also traveled to Mississippi in January, long before Colom became a national figure for Democrats. Emanuel urged Democrats to replicate the “Mississippi Miracle” of increased school literacy rates nationwide.A Democratic source familiar with potential 2028 candidates said campaigns “have to be strategic about where you can actually capture the voters that are going to propel you to the next stage” as they decide between visiting early-voting states and courting voters in the South.But beyond pouring financial resources into the South, the party will also need to present a vision over the next two years that will appeal to the nation.Douglas Wilson, a North Carolina Democratic strategist who worked on former President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, also pushed party members to focus on affordability, higher wages, restoring Obamacare subsidies, and education before tackling cultural issues in order to help move these traditionally red states into purple-state status.WHY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE BLUE WAVE COMING (AND WHY THEY DIDN’T)“Democrats are going to have to focus on legislation that starts to not only address the affordability crisis among all communities, but in particular the minority communities in the South; that’s the way that you keep black folks engaged,” he said.Democrats will get their first test of whether they can sustain success in the South in 2027, when Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all have gubernatorial contests. Competitive contests there would likely embolden the national apparatus to pay attention for the 2028 presidential race.