Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms

With just over two weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance to gain control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model. Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -22.3. If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses. With the oil price surging recently, petrol prices are likely to increase again before the midterms. Trump’s ratings In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -22.3. Currently, 59.8% disapprove of his performance and 37.6% approve. There haven’t been many polls taken since Trump’s October 9 announcement of a diesel import deal with Russia. Trump’s net approval was -22.5 in my October 7 article, but fell to a record low of -23.9 on October 9 before a slight recovery. His net approval had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back. Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -11.7. On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -11.6 on immigration, -30.6 on trade, -32.9 on the economy and -48.9 on inflation. Since my October 7 article, Trump’s net approval on trade has dropped two points, but has improved one point on immigration. Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Currently, 56.2% are opposed to the Iran war while 35.2% support it, for a net support of -21.0, up from a record low of -27.9 in my October 7 article. Midterm elections on November 3 All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election at November 3 midterm elections. In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Owing to Vice President JD Vance’s potential tie-breaking vote, Democrats need at least a four-seat gain to win Senate control. As I previously wrote, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance to win the House majority. The Senate is more skewed to Republicans as every state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate on a uniform swing. In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.3–41.7 lead over Republicans, a 9.6-point margin (up from 9.2 points last Wednesday, but the same 9.6 points as in my October 7 article). Democrats’ lead had dropped to 7.4 points on September 4. Polls that screen for likely voters usually give Democrats larger leads than polls that ask registered voters. Democrats are more likely to vote at lower turnout elections like the midterms than Republicans, when Trump is not on the ballot. Silver’s model gives Democrats a 75% chance to win the Senate and a 94% chance to win the House, respectively 74% and 93% on October 7. Democratic chances to win the Senate had fallen to a low of 50% on September 7, and their chances of winning the House had dropped to 81% on September 3. While uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver’s model has Democrats as the favourites to win with a 5–6 point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by 2–3 points. Read more: The American mood is turning dark, and Republicans are likely to pay the price at the midterms Democrats lead Republicans by one to four points in polls of Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio. Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024. In Nebraska, a Republican is only 0.1 points ahead of an independent. But Democrats are only leading by 2.8 points in Maine, which Kamala Harris won by 6.9 points. Silver said on Saturday that Democrats lead in polls of 54 Senate races (including seats not up for election). If polls are basically right nationally, Democrats have an 88% chance to win the Senate, with an average of 52.4 senators. If polls are systematically overstating Democrats by 3–4 points nationally, Democrats’ chance of winning the Senate drops to 38%, with an average of 49.7 senators. But if polls are understating Democrats by 3–4 points nationally, their chance to win the Senate rises to 99% with an average of 54.6 senators. Economic data Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.30 a gallon for regular petrol (gasoline in the US), down from US$4.36 a gallon in my October 7 article and US$4.48 on September 25. Owing to profits and taxes, the retail price of petrol will be higher than the commodity price. The commodity price of petrol had surged from a low of US$2.99 a gallon on August 27 to US$3.59 on September 23, but has fallen back to its current US$3.19 a gallon. However, the international benchmark Brent oil has surged from US$96.16 a barrel on September 29 to US$109.86 last Friday, the highest it has been since May. There appears to be a lag between changes in oil prices and petrol prices, so petrol prices are likely to increase again before the midterms. In Silver’s models, Trump and Republicans were at a high in early September, shortly after the August 27 low point in petrol prices. The September inflation report was released last Wednesday. Owing to high petrol prices, inflation increased 0.6% in September, up from 0.4% in August. Core inflation was up 0.3%, the same as in August. Annual inflation was 3.7%, the highest it has been before the midterms since 1990, except during COVID. Core annual inflation was 2.6%. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages fell 0.5% in both hourly and weekly terms in September owing to high inflation and low wage growth. Annual real wages were down 0.7% in hourly terms and down 0.1% in weekly terms. After combined losses of 1.9% in the last three trading sessions, the benchmark US S&P stock market index was down 2.0% last Friday from its October 6 peak. But it was still up 10.3% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February and up 16.2% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March.