Democrats need just four seats to grab the Senate on Tuesday. These are the 10 brawls that decide it.

Republicans face an uphill battle to keep their Senate majority as the midterm elections quickly approach on Tuesday. October polling has consistently shown that voters prefer the Democratic candidate nationally and in a host of crucial states.President Trump himself has cast doubt on the GOP's chance at success with concerns about whether conservative voters will show up to vote this fall – especially because he's not on the ballot. 'If I don't run, will those people go out and vote, and that's the one thing I can't tell,' Trump said recently while also urging GOP voters to act like he himself is on the ballot. Despite this, Republicans are trouncing Democrats in fundraising, both nationally and in key battleground races. It's an indication that control of Congress will be decided not by Washington insiders, but by the voters who turn out in key races in Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska. With North Carolina the likely first pick-up for Democrats on election night, read on to see what seats are to be majority-makers as scandals, scathing attacks and family dramas are shaking up races that will determine the balance of power in 2027. 10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November The US SenateRepublicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to pick up at least four of them to control the upper chamber in the next Congress. The following 10 Senate races are likely to determine control of the Senate.Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) versus Troy Jackson (D)Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D)GOP Senator Susan Collins is in the midst of a tough re-election battle in Maine, which has one of the oldest electorates in the country. After her previous opponent Graham Platner dropped out of the race amid a slew of allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse, which he denies, Maine Democrats selected former state Senate President Troy Jackson as their nominee. But he has also been marred by his own controversies, including a revelation that he fathered children with his second cousin. The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report after formerly being classed as one that 'leans Republican.' A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Jackson to be up four points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Collins was supported by 45 percent of those polled. But Collins has defied many a bad poll before on Election Day. Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (D) versus Mike Collins (R)Jon Ossoff (D) and Mike Collins (R)Incumbent Democratic golden boy Jon Ossoff is seen as one of the party's rising stars at the age of 39. He is now heavily favored in his race against scandal-plagued GOP lawmaker Mike Collins, who has been burdened by a slew of personal and personnel issues. The Daily Mail reported that Collins' son-in-law shared white supremacist rhetoric, and that his top advisors have been referred to the House Ethics Committee over an alleged misuse of funds. The seat's rating was shifted towards Democrats, from 'lean Democrat' to 'likely Democrat' by the Cook Political Report at the end of September. Ossoff has led in all recent polls, and was even given a double-digit advantage, garnering the support of 55 percent of respondents to an Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October. Collins scored the backing of just 40 percent of respondents to that poll. New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (D) versus John Sununu (R)Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R)Outgoing incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen declined to seek re-election to a fourth term in New Hampshire, in a seat which Democrats are likely to still hold in November. Republicans are hoping for a surprise in the Granite State. The state's GOP governor, Kelly Ayotte, is highly popular, and the Sununu name is one of the most recognized in New Hampshire politics. John Sununu has been elected to both the US House and US Senate, serving a single term. He has since been in the private sector. The seat was shifted towards Democrats by the Cook Political Report, after a brief time in the 'toss-up' column. A UMass Lowell poll conducted in the first two weeks of October found Congressman Chris Pappas up by seven, with 48 percent of respondents backing him, compared to the 41 percent who back Sununu.Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) versus Sherrod Brown (D)Jon Husted (R) and Sherrod Brown (D)Incumbent Jon Husted is running statewide to fill out the term after being appointed to Ohio's US Senate seat after JD Vance vacated the post for the vice presidency. Sherrod Brown, a 73-year-old Democrat, is mounting a comeback bid for his old Senate seat. The Daily Mail unearthed video of Brown lamenting the lack of diversity among congressional staff and commenting on ‘black and brown’ night cleaners. The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report, and polling released in late September showed a tied race. Users of the prediction market Kalshi are betting for Brown to win, by a margin of 66 percent to 34 percent. The winner needs to run again in 2028. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Husted and Brown tied at 47 percent apiece.Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) versus Josh Turek (D)Ashley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D)In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is on the statewide ballot for the first time, having represented a seat on the eastern side of the state since 2021, after flipping it in 2020. Josh Turek, a state lawmaker, made it out of a bruising primary after getting boosts from major Democrats. One of his biggest backers has been former President Barack Obama, who filmed a basketball-themed ad with Turek, a former Paralympic hooper. Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be negatively impacted by Democrat Rob Sand performing well in the gubernatorial race. The seat was rated 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report, but shifted to a 'toss-up' in the end of August. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Turek up by two percent over Hinson, 45 percent to 43 percent.Michigan Senate: Mike Rogers (R) versus Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D)Michigan is one of the true toss-ups in November, as Progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed was declared the winner of a rollercoaster Democratic primary for the US Senate after squeaking by with a slim victory over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. His single-point win raises new questions about whether his strength among base voters can translate to a general election this fall, as Democrats look to protect the Democratic seat. El-Sayed fared well with Arab-American and younger voters, while Stevens nabbed support from older Democrats as well as African-American voters who do not seem ready to back El-Sayed in November. El-Sayed has tried to remedy this issue, holding a campaign rally with former Vice President Kamala Harris, with another one planned featuring former President Barack Obama. Rogers, a former House GOP lawmaker, has been biding his time as the GOP's presumptive nominee for months, waiting on a challenger to emerge from the Democratic Party. The seat is rated as a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found El-Sayed to be up seven points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Rogers was supported by 42 percent of those polled.Texas Senate: Ken Paxton (R) versus James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D)Republicans hope to pull out a win by the skin of their teeth in Texas, where the State's Attorney General Ken Paxton won a bruising GOP primary to face off against James Talarico, a state legislator. It's looking tougher by the minute. Paxton won his primary with Trump's endorsement, ousting incumbent Senator John Cornyn, and Talarico beat out House Democratic firebrand Jasmine Crockett in his primary. Paxton has to overcome allegations of adultery amid a messy divorce, and a past impeachment from his post before being acquitted by fellow Republicans in the Texas Senate, all ahead of the general election. But he was able to make it out of the primary full of Christian evangelical voters, even with metric tons of personal baggage. Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running for a historic fourth consecutive four-year term in the Lone Star State, a move that was expected to drive statewide turnout for Paxton. However, even his race is looking much tighter than first anticipated. The US Senate seat is rated as a 'toss-up' by the Cook Political Report, and was formerly rated to 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Talarico to be up six points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Paxton was supported by 43 percent of those polled.Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) versus Dan Osborn (I)Pete Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I)Independent Dan Osborn is back on the ballot in the Cornhusker state two years after losing to a Republican statewide in 2024. This time, he's facing Pete Ricketts, the state's incumbent GOP Senator and former Governor. Osborn's campaigning has been marred by several eyebrow-raising moments, including revelations that he has paid himself and family members nearly half a million dollars in campaign funds, and that his daughter participates in NSFW platforms. Ricketts is likely to hold the seat in November, and the seat is rated 'likely Republican' by the Cook Political Report. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Ricketts up by one percent over Osborn, 47 percent to 46 percent.Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) versus Mary Peltola (D)Dan S Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D)Republican Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s junior senator since 2015, faces former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, whose moderate House record makes her a dangerous opponent. Peltola beat him in August’s open primary, 48.2 percent to 42.9. Voters will also find a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot, a retired teacher, and ranked-choice voting makes the race even harder to call. A bombshell report from the New York Times revealed that allies of Peltola did in fact work to recruit a second Dan Sullivan to run in an attempt to confuse voters. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and 10 put Peltola ahead 50 percent to 48.Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D)Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D) Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is fighting for his career to secure a seat that Democrats have not won in nearly 100 years. He's facing Adam Hamilton, a pastor in one of the state's largest churches in the Kansas City metro area. Marshall's campaigning has been marred by several eyebrow-raising moments, including revelations that the former OB-GYN who practiced in Great Bend for two decades before entering Congress, sued more than 700 of his patients over unpaid medical bills, the New York Times revealed last month. The senator has dismissed the report as a Democrat-planted hit job, insisting only 'a very small, small, small fraction of the unpaid bills even went to collections.' President Trump has rallied behind Marshall, calling him 'great, a wonderful person, given a 'bum rap' because he was mandated by Law to request money owed from patients,' in a Truth Social post last week. The seat was shifted to 'toss up' from 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report in the first week of October. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Hamilton to have the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Marshall was supported by 45 percent of those polled.