Democrats lead in seven Senate battlegrounds as Trump approval weighs on GOP: Poll

Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican opponents in seven battleground states surveyed by the New York Times and Siena College, highlighting the political challenges facing the Republican Party on the eve of Election Day.The latest polling found Democrats ahead in races stretching from Texas to Alaska, including several states President Donald Trump safely carried in 2024. The leads vary in size, however, with several contests remaining within the polls’ margins of error.Dissatisfaction with Trump and frustration over his handling of the economy appear to be weighing on Republican candidates. Just 38% of likely voters across the seven states approved of the president’s job performance, according to the New York Times poll, despite his winning five of them by double digits two years ago. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul el Sayed holds a 53% to 42% lead over Republican Mike Rogers. But the race was shaken this weekend when el Sayed’s former Democratic primary rival Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) — who had the backing of prominent Democratic Senate leaders — reversed course and endorsed Rogers. The move followed a bitter dispute between the Democrats over Israel and came after the polling was largely completed.In the Lone Star State, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. Talarico also holds a 10-point advantage in net favorability, with 49% of likely voters viewing him favorably and 39% unfavorably. Paxton had the lowest favorability rating of any candidate included in the surveys, at minus 20 points. If Talarico beats Paxton, he would be Texas’s first Democratic senator in roughly three decades.In Maine, former Democratic state Sen. Troy Jackson leads longtime Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) 51% to 45%. Collins, the last remaining Republican senator in New England, has overcome unfavorable polling before. She trailed in every major survey ahead of her 2020 reelection campaign but ultimately won comfortably.Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of Republican Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) 49% to 44% in Ohio, a race that has attracted roughly $500 million in spending. Trump’s approval among Ohio Republicans remains at 82%, although the share who strongly approve has fallen from 63% in June to 51%.In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola narrowly leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) 48% to 46%. The contest has been complicated by an October controversy involving a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, prompting a Justice Department investigation into possible election interference. Peltola was also the only Democrat in the seven-state polling group to lose ground compared with an earlier New York Times/Siena survey.2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS, RESULTS AND ANALYSISDemocrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) 49% to 44% in Kansas, while Democrat Josh Turek holds a narrower advantage over Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) in Iowa.The surveys were conducted Oct. 23 through Nov. 1 among 5,708 likely voters across the seven states. State-level margins of error ranged from 3.3 to 4.8 percentage points.