Democrats Have No Business Being Competitive in These Five States—but They Are

The Slatest Even in deep-red states, Democrats and Republicans are running neck and neck in Senate races. Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images, Joe Raedle/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, and Austin Johnson/AFP via Getty Images. This story is adapted from the Slatest newsletter. You can sign up here to get it in your inbox every day. Winning a U.S. Senate majority is often a game of hedging bets. Every so often, though, a political party dares to dream. As we explained last month, Democrats’ most realistic path to retaking the upper chamber on Tuesday runs through a handful of purple and red states. But as Donald Trump’s approval ratings sink, that map appears to be expanding. Polls now show that Democrats’ preferred Senate candidates are competitive in several states Trump won by double digits. All the usual caveats apply; if the polls are off, Democrats’ strength could turn out to be a mirage. But much ink has been spilled on states like Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina, where Democrats have struggled in recent cycles but appear to be in better shape this year. So instead let’s lavish some attention on the states where Democrats didn’t seem competitive even a few months ago, but which now seem to be in play. Kansas Can a mild-mannered pastor win a state that Trump swept by 16 points in 2024? If Adam Hamilton does, he’ll become another example of how strong candidates can help Democrats defy the odds in the Trump era. Hamilton, a former Republican who founded a Methodist megachurch, has embraced moderate positions and out-raised his opponent, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall’s own scandals may be helping Hamilton, too. Last month, the New York Times revealed that Marshall, a former OB-GYN, had sued hundreds of patients over unpaid bills, including new mothers. Hamilton wouldn’t be the only Democrat who’s managed to win Kansas of late, either; the state has had a Democratic governor since 2019. Nebraska Dan Osborn is the best chance Democrats have had in decades of unseating a GOP senator in this Trump +20 farm state—perhaps because Osborn isn’t really a Democrat. A mechanic, former union leader, and Navy veteran, Osborn is running as an independent with the backing of the state’s Democratic Party. There have been few nonpartisan polls of Nebraska, so it’s hard to know exactly where the race stands. But most surveys point to a very close race between Osborn and incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Still, the outcome may hinge on whether enough voters buy Osborn’s independent pitch. He unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024, and leaked audio recently captured him calling Trump’s border wall “a symbol of racism” and remarking that rural Trump voters’ lives “probably suck.” South Carolina If Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews flips the Palmetto State blue next week, a twist of fate may help explain why. After Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham died suddenly in July, his sister Darline replaced him in the Senate and as a candidate for reelection. But as a political neophyte, Darline has made some notable gaffes (“I’m not that informed on national security,” she said during one debate) and polls now show a close matchup. This week, a New York Times/Siena University survey found the race tied. Andrews, who previously lost a 2022 House race, has framed her candidacy around the cost of healthcare and recently earned support from one of South Carolina’s former Republican governors. Yet she’s also had to address past positions that aren’t popular in her home state, including opposing a bill to ban transgender athletes from girls’ sports. In a recent ad, Andrews said she opposes letting “biological men” compete alongside women. Florida The Sunshine State hasn’t always been as hostile to Democrats as the other states I just mentioned, but it has slipped further and further rightward since Trump won it in 2016. Angie Nixon, a state lawmaker and democratic socialist who won the Democratic primary in an upset, will test whether progressive energy can buck the trend against a Republican incumbent, Sen. Ashley Moody, who has labeled Nixon a “card-carrying socialist.” So far, though, that’s looking like a big if; this week’s Times/Siena poll found Moody ahead by 6 points. Mississippi The home state of the president of the Confederacy might seem like an unlikely place for a Democratic upset, and it’s certainly among the party’s more far-fetched Senate reach seats this year. But Mississippi is also the state with the highest share of Black residents, and Republicans are trying to wipe away its only majority-Black congressional district. Those facts have fueled Democratic hopes that Scott Colom, a Black district attorney, can oust Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. So far, the evidence is mixed. Few legitimate pollsters have surveyed Mississippi (a fake firm recently claimed to have found a close race), and Hyde-Smith appears to be leading. To sum up: It’s pretty unlikely that all five of these races will swing Democrats’ way, and it’s possible that none of them will. But if they’re even remotely close, it will bode well for the party in the races it almost certainly has to win to take control of the Senate. Tolga Akdoğan After a tour around the country, what could be more relaxing than my colleagues’ suggestions about how to unwind this evening? Take a You Can See Everything Rorschach test: Everyone in the Elizabeth Holmes documentary is playing a character, but only one performer is utterly convincing. Isaac Butler makes the case that the film holds a mirror up to its audience by focusing on the nature of performance and artifice. Bless this “Mes”: Jennifer Lawrence is an Oscar-winning actress, but her new role is a bit of a head-scratcher. Heather Schwedel explains why the A-lister is making a pivot to selling luxury hair care. Whip up some homemade treats: Back in the day, trick-or-treaters used to receive homemade sweets on Halloween. The idea of letting children consume goodies prepared by a stranger might seem unthinkable now, but Chason Gordon argues that we’ve lost something by relying solely on store-bought candy. He proposes a delicious solution. Make sense of the midterms with Slate: Speaking of tricks and treats, watch this livestream recording from Slate’s politics team, who broke down all the spooky thrills and chills we can expect on Election Day. And mark your calendars for Slate’s postelection live event next Wednesday at noon Eastern, when you can join What Next host Mary Harris and Slate senior politics reporter Jim Newell for a debriefing on the midterm results. Come for my colleagues’ smart insights about the midterms, stay for their killer senses of humor. Till tomorrow!