Democrats’ gamble on independent challengers hits major roadblock in Montana after Senate nominee refuses to quit race

Republicans’ chances of keeping both of Montana‘s Senate seats just shot through the roof after Democrats failed to clear the field for Seth Bodnar, an independent backed by ex-Sen. Jon Tester.As of now, Bodnar is running in a three-way race that is expected to split the Democratic vote in Montana and potentially gift wrap Kurt Alme, the Republican nominee, the win in November. Montana Democrats in the state legislature made a late push to get Alani Bankhead, their party’s nominee, to drop out, but she vowed to stay in the race on Monday — the last day to remove herself from the ballot.Bodnar’s support is part of a nationwide effort by Democrats to compete in traditionally Republican states by fielding or backing independent challengers. But their inability to convince Bankhead to bow out means that Montana’s Senate seat is likely to stay in Republican hands next year. “I think there’s about to be a lot less media attention on this race,” said Kal Munis, a political science professor at Montana State University. “I think this puts us into foregone conclusion territory that Alme will win pretty comfortably.”DEMOCRATS TURN TO INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES TO COMPETE IN RED STATESThe outcome marks a major setback for Democrats in what is otherwise projected to be a strong year for the party nationally. The state is generally a Republican stronghold and has trended to the right over the last decade. But it also has an independent streak, and with President Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings, Democrats could have conceivably turned Montana into a genuine battleground.Less than two years ago, it was represented by Tester, a three-term senator. Six years ago, it had a Democratic governor.“If the stars align just perfectly, the state can be in play, and everything aligned just perfectly this year, except they’re going to be splitting that opposition vote, and you just can’t do that here,” said Munis.At stake is control of the Senate, as Democrats need to flip four seats to regain the majority in November. The seat is opening up due to the retirement of Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who opted not to run for a third term minutes before the March filing deadline to minimize the risk that Alme attracted a major challenger.The move helped avoid a GOP primary for Alme as well as the entrance of a well-known Democrat such as Tester or former Gov. Steve Bullock.Bodnar’s race is just one in which Democrats have coalesced behind an independent as opposed to their official candidate. Over the last month, Democratic nominees in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Idaho have either withdrawn from the race or asked for their names to be removed from the ballot.In Montana, 22 members of the state legislature asked Bankhead to drop out on Friday and threw their support behind Bodnar, who has the backing of traditional union and Democratic-aligned groups.The Montana Democratic Party has stuck with Bankhead as the winner of the June primary, although her campaign has been viewed with skepticism due to her anemic fundraising. She won the primary with the help of an outside group that has since ended its financial support, declaring the state unwinnable for Democrats.Bankhead accused the political establishment of attempting to force her out of the race ahead of Monday’s filing deadline. Bodnar, in turn, reiterated his intention to continue his campaign while questioning the “dark money groups” supporting Bankhead’s candidacy.Due to state law, there is some question as to whether Democrats could have actually forgone running a nominee from their own party in Montana, but they were already preparing for a legal challenge as Bankhead faced pressure to drop out.Democrats don’t have to look far back to find an example of a three-way race hurting their chances of winning. Former Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican, had a far simpler path to reelection in 2022 because a Democrat and an independent simultaneously challenged him, receiving one-fifth of the vote each, though the eastern Montana district skews significantly more Republican than the state as a whole.The strategy of fielding independent candidates nods to the difficulty of Democrats separating themselves from the brand of their party, particularly in a red state. Brian Bengs, the independent challenger in South Dakota, is running after receiving only a quarter of the vote as a Democrat in his 2022 race against Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).There is some indication, however, that the third-party path can be a successful one for Democratic-aligned candidates. Independent Dan Osborn is running another campaign for Senate this cycle after coming within a surprise 7 points of defeating incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) in Nebraska.Even if the candidates are not successful, the entrance of competitive challengers forces Republicans to spend resources in a state they would rather deploy elsewhere.In 2024, Montana was viewed as a top-tier state for Republicans, who spent tens of millions to unseat Tester and elect Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT).Polling has suggested that Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, could make the Montana Senate race competitive once again, and he has repeatedly outraised Alme, a former U.S. attorney for the District of Montana. But Republicans are predicting that his fundraising will peter out with Bankhead staying in the race.HOW GRASSLEY GOT TODD BLANCHE’S ATTORNEY GENERAL NOMINATION BACK ON TRACK“Seth’s fundraising is about to dry up and his campaign is effectively dead,” said one Montana GOP strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Montana Democratic Party did not respond to requests for comment.