Democrats are likely to come up short in Florida. They’re still giving Republicans a scare

It’s been eight years since Democrats won a statewide office in Florida, 14 years since a Senate seat, and 32 years since the governor’s office.Yet Democrats are holding their own this cycle in other high-stakes races, including competitive congressional districts redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature designed to flip at least four of them red.And Florida Republicans know critical races are still in play that could shape the Sunshine State’s 2028 presidential election landscape. “I don’t think the redistricting is going to change the map, not the way [President Donald] Trump wanted to,” said Angie Wong, a Republican Party executive committeewoman in Miami-Dade County. “At some point, I think Republicans have to realize this may be a referendum on Trump and his policies, right? And nobody wants to say that or believe that. But I mean, you just got to do the math at some point. People are pissed off.”While the governor and Senate races are likely forgone conclusions in favor of Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL), respectively, the victory margins could set the stage for how much money Democrats send to the South for 2028 in a state that was once a toss-up and twice went for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.Democrats have spent upward of $100 million this cycle on airwave time alone to boost former Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly for governor, Angie Nixon for Senate, and House candidates, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Republicans have pumped more than threefold into the same contests with nearly $320 million, yet may not walk away with any new House seats to show for it.Three of the four formerly Democratic-leaning districts redrawn by Republicans to lean in their favor are rated toss-ups or slightly favoring Democrats. The other one “leans” Republican. The House GOP’s main super PAC abandoned $6 million in ad reservations in the final days of the midterm elections for one of those seats, South Florida’s 25th Congressional District, that favors Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL).“I think there’s a lot of inroads coming in to purple up the state, maybe in a cycle,” predicted Wong, citing a growing tech industry in her South Florida region that could hurt the GOP long-term. “If we keep letting up, if the party doesn’t really kind of strongarm every single district, it’s going to turn blue at some point.”Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who’s term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term, offered an eyebrow-raising public concession: Florida Republicans were slacking at early voting, despite the party’s hefty statewide advantages in registered voters and fundraising.“Republicans are underperforming in Polk County,” DeSantis posted to social media, referencing a strongly Republican county in the I-4 corridor region stretching from Tampa to Orlando that often acts as a barometer for broader election outcomes. “We have a voter registration advantage of 60,000 in the county and it went R+30 four years ago.”Attendees watch results at a primary election night watch party for Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly on Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026, in Miami Lakes, Florida. (Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo) The rhetoric may have offered a glimpse into the party’s underlying anxieties about its expectations for Tuesday, but it also presented a rallying cry to juice the base. Republicans often see higher in-person turnout on Election Day than during early voting or vote-by-mail. Still, DeSantis’s frustration took aim at the Polk County early voting figures, which showed a virtual tie between the two parties as of Friday. Registered Republicans statewide outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, yet the GOP only led by 89,000 in early ballots cast.WHICH DEMOGRAPHICS MUST TURN OUT TO ENSURE BYRON DONALDS KEEPS FLORIDA REDThe scare tactic is one that other Republicans in battleground areas are echoing. Texas Comptroller Don Huffines, the state’s chief financial officer, embraced a dire message as the Lone Star State stares down a potential upset Senate victory by Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton.“It is ugly right now. We need every single Republican to get out there and vote,” Huffines said at a rally with Vice President JD Vance. “And if you’re mad at a Republican, I had to hold my nose and vote for John McCain. I had to hold my nose and vote for Mitt Romney. I was a delegate to the national convention. I still voted for him, right? This is about saving the nation.”