DAN HODGES: Burnham could win an election - but he's heading for disaster if he waits too long

If Andy Burnham was preparing to call a snap general election next year, then his first conference speech as Labour leader would have been brave and bold.Confirmation of his commitment to establishing a new national social care system. The abolition of the current pensions triple lock. A pledge to introduce a new system of proportional representation for Westminster.Up until this moment, mystery had shrouded his plans for Government, and the nation. His strategy had been one of cautious incrementalism. A cap on bus fares. A small cut to household electricity bills.But the charge that 'no-one knows what Andy Burnham stands for' can no longer be made. Burnham's address was the most overtly socialist speech delivered by a British prime minister since Clement Attlee.Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Keir Starmer each sought, in differing ways, to reach an uneasy accommodation with the Conservative reforms of the 1980s. Burnham vowed to cast them aside. Lambasting the privatised utilities, he brought his delegates to their feet by storming: 'The British right talk about taking back control – never forget that they are the ones who gave it away in the first place.'It was old-style, hard-core socialism that attempted to drive a stake through the heart of Thatcherism. Not to mention New Labourism.Blair believed his path to power required him to moderate his messaging and neuter his party's hunger for greater state intervention. That a manifesto littered with traditional Left-wing messages represented an electoral suicide note.Burnham has taken a starkly different approach. With the Right fractured, he believes that if he can reunite the Left and neutralise Zack Polanski and the Greens, then he can secure another full term in power by winning the votes of just over 30 per cent of the country. The charge that 'no-one knows what Andy Burnham stands for' can no longer be made, writes Dan Hodges Burnham's address was the most overtly socialist speech delivered by a British prime minister since Clement AttleeHe may well be right. The Prime Minister's new informal approach – he roamed the conference stage free of the constraints of both a lectern and a tie – is proving popular. The Burnham Bounce is being sustained longer than many people predicted.He has also managed to unite and re-energise his disillusioned party. When he pledged to defy conventional political wisdom and establish a new National Care Service paid for with higher taxation, his cabinet and activists roared their approval. 'I accept I may pay a political price, but someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off,' he conceded. They cheered even more loudly.And, for now, however chilling his unashamedly Left-wing agenda may appear to some, there is currently no one capable of standing in his way. With Reform continuing their collapse in the polls, and Kemi Badenoch still struggling to pull her party's popularity into line with her own, the opposition is fractured and impotent.So yes, if he does indeed plan to go to the polls next year, as I believe he will, Burnham's pre-election pitch may ultimately prove successful.But for now, the Prime Minister is insisting there will be no such dash to the palace. In which case the words in his speech were utterly meaningless.Burnham's entire argument was that the nation now has a leader who not only has the vision to identify the major problems facing the British people, but the courage to tackle them. But if we take him at his word, Britain has a leader who will not even begin to tackle any of the major issues for another three years.If there is not to be an election until 2029, then – by his own admission – we will be consigned to 36 months of political purgatory as Burnham and his Ministers remain trapped by the manifesto that brought Starmer to power in 2024.The Prime Minister's address brought out the best in him. When he delivered the passage in which he cited his late father, he spoke with genuine emotion and passion. But again, that passion will be completely squandered if he genuinely intends to wait for another three party conferences before he starts to focus it on the vital challenges of the day.We have already been treated to an example of the chaos that will potentially envelop the government if Andy Burnham attempts to soft launch his revolution. Yesterday, as Downing Street was briefing that the abolition of the triple lock would form a major part of his speech, his Education Secretary Lucy Powell was touring the broadcast studios, insisting Burnham was committed to Labour's current manifesto.Then, after he delivered the speech, journalists dutifully reported the Prime Minister had just announced the triple lock's abolition. Yet Downing Street advisers were still briefing that this was not the case, and the triple lock would simply be 'adjusted over time'.Both cannot be true – and such confusion is not sustainable. Especially if it extends to other major areas of policy.Burnham said he would use the UK-EU summit this autumn summit to explore options for recasting Labour's relationship with the EU. 'Brexit has done more harm than good,' he declared. But he said nothing about what those options were.At one point, he appeared to announce the renationalisation of the privatised water companies, which drew whoops from his audience. But he then appeared to back off such a comprehensive commitment.He placed his Social Care Service at the heart of his vision for the country. But after he left the stage, his Ministers were unable to say how that would be funded, and that people would have to await the Casey Review.If Burnham wants to be genuinely bold, he could potentially win an election. But if he is instead saying say to voters: 'I'm going to be bold. But not today. For now, I'm afraid I'm just going to be a pale imitation of Keir Starmer. Get back to me in 2029,' he is heading for disaster. And so is Britain.Because the Prime Minister is right. There are indeed major structural problems facing the country. For all the talk of 'Hope' the fabric of the nation is fracturing.Andy Burnham needs to act now. Because if he waits till 2029, it will be too late.