Cross River at the Crossroads: Why Continuity Under Gov Otu is Essential Against External Capture

Cross River at the Crossroads: Why Continuity Under Gov Otu is Essential Against External Capture Joseph Abang Odok Cross River State stands at a decisive political and economic juncture. For years it has carried the scars of the Bakassi Peninsula cession to Cameroon after the 2002 ICJ ruling and the subsequent loss of key oil wells, largely to Akwa Ibom following the 2012 Supreme Court decision. That loss stripped the state of littoral status and the associated 13 per cent derivation revenues, contributing to persistent fiscal pressure and higher poverty indicators relative to better-resourced neighbours. Successive administrations left heavy domestic debts, underutilised public assets and a trail of ambitious projects that often existed more on billboards than on the ground. Governor Bassey Otu assumed office in May 2023 facing an inherited domestic debt exceeding N204 billion, demoralised public institutions, abandoned assets such as Tinapa and infrastructure deficits. His administration’s first term has prioritised recovery, fiscal stabilisation and consolidation rather than spectacle. Official figures show domestic debt reduced by more than N70 billion without fresh borrowing, bringing the stock to approximately N132.3 billion by March 2026. Internally generated revenue rose from N21.1 billion in 2022 to N46.3 billion in 2024 through improved mobilisation and discipline. Strategic assets have been reclaimed, including Tinapa from AMCON and nearly N1 billion from Etung Cocoa Estates. Efforts continue to restore oil-producing status and protect interests around Bakassi and the proposed Deep Seaport. Infrastructure and human-capital investments have been tangible. Hundreds of kilometres of roads have been reconstructed or rehabilitated across the three senatorial districts. Education interventions include payment of WAEC fees for tens of thousands of students, construction and rehabilitation of classrooms, and the establishment of institutions such as the University of Education and Entrepreneurship in Akamkpa. Health upgrades cover primary healthcare centres, oxygen plants and recruitment of health workers. Tourism assets, including elements of Obudu Ranch and the Calabar Carnival, have seen revived activity and higher visitor numbers. Agriculture programmes have distributed seedlings, tractors and support to farmers, while digital fibre deployment and ICT training signal modernisation. Social investment payments targeting vulnerable residents have begun reaching tens of thousands. These gains occurred under constrained circumstances. The state has operated without the oil derivation windfall enjoyed by neighbours and against a backdrop of national economic pressures. Independent commentary and stakeholder statements from former governors (with the notable exception of Benedict Ayade perceived to be fighting Gov Otu) have acknowledged the recovery focus. The Cross River State House of Assembly has formally endorsed Otu for a second term, citing legislative productivity and policy delivery. Northern senatorial stakeholders, youth groups and market women have similarly mobilised support, linking continuity to both state progress and alignment with federal priorities such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. There is overwhelming ignorance in CRS today with claims that CRS now has more money under Governor Otu. This is true only in naira value, not in dollar equivalence. Tinubu’s “more money to governors” claim is empty in real terms. Nominal FAAC allocations surged after subsidy removal and naira float. Pre-Tinubu (2022): N9–12tn ≈ $22–29bn (₦400-450/$). Under Tinubu: N21–35tn+ nominally, but only $14–23bn at N1,400-1,500/$. One comparison: six months pre-reform (~N6.36tn ≈ $13.8bn) vs post (~N13.5tn ≈ $9.2bn). States get thicker naira bundles that buy far fewer dollars for imports and projects. Devaluation and inflation erased the real increase. “Triple allocation” rhetoric ignores the currency collapse the same reforms caused. Rufai Oseni has consistently demonstrated these facts of no real value added to governors for those who follow him on Arise News . The political threat is real and illustrated by the Rivers experience. Nyesom Wike brings crisis wherever he becomes interested. Rivers and the PDP offer clear examples. As Rivers governor he expanded borrowing despite substantial resources, channeling leverage into party structures. In Rivers, periods of relative autonomy under Governor Siminalayi Fubara saw accelerated development that later stalled amid crises and a state of emergency. Within the PDP, his interventions repeatedly produced factional warfare, suspensions and institutional paralysis. Elevation to the FCT portfolio, with reported preferential access to funds outside standard Treasury Single Account constraints, enlarged the war chest for influence operations that now include judicial and political outreach. The Rainbow Coalition (a cross-party platform championed by Wike) aims to consolidate votes for President Bola Tinubu while positioning preferred candidates across parties for other offices. Analysts describe it as an instrument of continued political control rather than pure ideological alliance. Cross River is too peaceful for Wike’s style of politics. Similar dynamics, combined with financial muscle from neighbouring interests, risk turning the state into an extension of external agendas. Buying influence among National Assembly members or local elite to block a second term bide of Governor Otu would expand that footprint and subordinate CRS priorities. Once a state is subordinated to external political machines whose primary loyalty lies elsewhere, local development priorities become secondary. Cross River, already poorer and fiscally scarred by the Bakassi cession and the 2012 oil-well losses to Akwa Ibom, cannot absorb a comparable interruption. Its poverty indicators remain elevated precisely because structural revenue losses were never fully offset; any halt in the current recovery trajectory would deepen deprivation rather than merely pause progress. Governor Otu has navigated these pressures while fighting to reclaim assets and restore fiscal space amid competing claims from better-resourced neighbours like Rivers and Akwa Ibom. With their warchest they have allegedly used money to buy many appointments originally meant for CRS or removed already appointed people from CRS to swell their kitty. Reports of financial inducements directed at National Assembly members and local influencers form part of a broader pattern aimed at blocking continuity so that the Rainbow Coalition’s footprint can expand into Cross River. Under Otu the emphasis has been on internal recovery and measured federal engagement rather than subordination. A second term is framed by the governor himself as the shift from “clearing the bush and laying the foundation” to “building the house and filling it with prosperity”: industrial parks across the three districts, completion of the Obudu Cargo Airport and related logistics corridors, expanded youth and agricultural enterprise, digital civil service reforms, and conversion of recovered assets into productive ventures. Critics will note that not every project is complete, that oil status restoration remains contested and not yet translating into derivation receipts, and that poverty reduction is a multi-year task. These are fair observations. Recovery from structural losses and inherited liabilities cannot be instantaneous. What distinguishes the current record is measurable debt reduction without new loans, revenue growth, asset reclamation, and a coherent second-term agenda grounded in those foundations rather than fresh announcements detached from delivery. For Cross Riverians at home and in the diaspora, the choice is between consolidating hard-won stabilisation under a governor who has prioritised the state’s own balance sheet and institutions, or risking capture by larger political and financial machines whose primary loyalty lies elsewhere. The Rivers and PDP precedents show how quickly development momentum can be interrupted when local leadership is subordinated. Continuity under Otu offers the best prospect of defending Cross River’s residual sovereignty, completing the recovery phase, and converting it into shared prosperity. Stakeholders across the state have already signalled that preference. The 2027 election will determine whether that signal is heeded. * Dr Odok, a Senior Lecturer, social change agent, lawyer and philosopher, writes from Abuja