Could this grieving political novice defeat Netanyahu? The polls say yes

Each day, Benjamin Netanyahu’s date with political destiny draws closer. And one rival has emerged, with a burst of last-minute momentum, as the person most likely to replace him as prime minister when Israelis vote on October 27.Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israeli military, is a relative newcomer to Israeli politics, having only entered the national parliament, the Knesset, in 2022. He founded his centrist political party Yashar (meaning “honest” or “straight”) last September. At the beginning of the year, the polls showed his party winning only around eight or nine seats – far below the 27 or so seats claimed by Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett seemed to be Netanyahu’s most formidable opponent.Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot embraces family and friends at the funeral for his son Gal Meir Eisenkot, 25, in 2023.GettyIn recent months, however, Eisenkot has enjoyed a massive surge in popularity that has catapulted his party to the top of the polls. A survey released this week by Channel 12, one of Israel’s main channels, showed Yashar winning 24 seats compared with 23 for Netanyahu’s Likud. Polls have also shown Eisenkot overtaking Netanyahu as the preferred prime minister.While other anti-Netanyahu contenders have soared and then plummeted over recent years, Eisenkot appears to be peaking at exactly the right time. The Knesset was dissolved at the end of last week, and intense campaigning is under way ahead of an election widely regarded as one of the most important in Israel’s history. It could also be one of the most heated.“I turn to elected representatives, activists, and all candidates from all parties, and demand that you do not cross red lines,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a speech this week, highlighting the fractious atmosphere in the country. “Do not turn rivals into enemies. I call on the people of Israel, in a clear voice: remember that elections are not a civil war.”Mark Sofer, a former Israeli ambassador to Australia, says: “Eisenkot has a lot going for him. He hasn’t put a foot wrong. He’s very much a pragmatist, very much against Netanyahu, and he projects a sense of security.”Eisenkot is not a slick operator, nor a soaring orator. He doesn’t ooze charisma. But with many Israelis fed up with Netanyahu’s scandals and relentless politicking, Eisenkot’s more down-to-earth approach could turn out to be an advantage. “He’s very different from Netanyahu – he’s definitely not big on rhetoric and speeches,” says Nadav Eyal, one of Israel’s most prominent journalists and commentators. “He gives an impression of sincerity and credibility that Netanyahu does not possess right now. He’s extremely popular personally.”An ally of Netanyahu last month posted a social media video mocking Eisenkot’s heavily accented English, comparing it with the fluency of the American-educated Netanyahu. Eisenkot has branded such attacks racist and fired back by asking how Netanyahu’s English had helped Israel on the day of the October 7, 2023 massacre or, more recently, in handling relations with the Trump administration.Eisenkot’s surge in the polls has been aided by two crucial factors. First, the war in Iran has not gone to plan for Israel and the United States, leading to a drop in support for Netanyahu. Second, a risky move by two top Netanyahu rivals – Bennett and the centrist Yair Lapid – to team up and form a joint party appears to have backfired. Their Together party was scoring around 26 seats in the polls when it launched in April, but that figure has crashed to around 15 in more recent polls. Their loss has been Eisenkot’s gain.The Israeli military has been stretched by the conflict in Gaza and more recently with Iran.GettyAt his campaign launch in June, Eisenkot vowed to end the “madness” of the Netanyahu era, declaring: “We will replace a leadership devoid of any vision and strategy. Will we accept the continuation of social divisions and go full throttle toward the next disaster, or will we heal and rebuild?The 66-year-old has spent most of his life as an army man, culminating in his leadership of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) from 2015 to 2019. This is an advantage in a country where the military is largely revered. Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak ascended to the prime ministership after serving as IDF chief of staff, and Ariel Sharon entered politics after serving as a senior military commander. Eisenkot’s son, Gal, died in action during the Gaza war in 2023, showing he has a personal stake in Israel’s conflicts. Choking up with tears while delivering the eulogy at his son’s funeral, Eisenkot said: “We’ll take care of the country that you loved so dearly.” It has not gone unnoticed in Israel that neither of Netanyahu’s sons, Avner and Yair, served in the IDF during the most recent wars in Gaza and Lebanon.Eisenkot, whose parents immigrated to Israel from Morocco, would make history as Israel’s first Mizrahi prime minister, meaning from a North African or Middle Eastern background. All of Israel’s prime ministers have had European (or Ashkenazi in Hebrew) roots. The fact that Eisenkot cannot be pegged as a member of the Ashkenazi liberal elite is a selling point given that working-class Mizrahi Jews, who tend to be more conservative, have been a crucial voting bloc for Netanyahu’s Likud party. In this context, attacking Eisenkot for his lack of English skills seems like a questionable strategy. The Times of Israel commentator Tal Schneider wrote last month that Eisenkot is “out to conquer the vast middle-class heartland of suburban Israel … the Israel of commuters who drive to work each morning, endure traffic congestion, pay off their mortgages, raise families, and manage demanding lives”.Eisenkot’s 10-point policy plan includes a comprehensive state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, in which 1200 Israelis were killed, a move Netanyahu has stonewalled. He also wants all Israelis to complete military service, including ultra-Orthodox Jews, with only rare exemptions for some religious students. This is a popular policy among more secular Israelis, who are frustrated at the special privileges given to the ultra-Orthodox.In the final days before the Knesset was dissolved, Netanyahu’s far-right government passed a law formalising exemptions for most ultra-Orthodox men from military service in a bid to shore up support with this voting bloc. IDF chief Eyal Zamir criticised the legislation as “clearly and unequivocally inconsistent” with the military’s needs.Although he has caught fire lately, it is unclear how Eisenkot will perform in the full glare of an election campaign, where he will face intense attacks. “His main weakness as a candidate is that he is not an equipped politician,” Nadav Eyal says. “He has spent almost all his life in the army, and he doesn’t have the same skill set Netanyahu has in campaigning. He is running against probably the most capable campaigner in the Western world, who has won more elections than any person alive in any democracy.” Netanyahu was first elected in 1996, and has dominated Israeli politics for most of the past two decades.Eyal says Netanyahu’s allies have begun to “carpet-bomb” the Israeli public with advertising depicting Eisenkot as a “far-leftist” who will rely on Arab parties, which draw their support from Arab-Israeli citizens. Most polls show the anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties hovering just short of a parliamentary majority, meaning a coalition with Arab parties may be needed to form a government.A victory by Eisenkot – or any opposition leader – would undoubtedly be greeted with relief, indeed jubilation, by most of the international community. Netanyahu, who has been indicted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court, has developed a toxic image in much of the world that has damaged the country’s standing, including among once-close allies. A Pew Research poll released in June found that 78 per cent of Australians say they have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to do the right thing regarding world affairs, including 56 per cent who report having no confidence at all.‘I have never said two states for two peoples because I understand the depth of this religious-national-social conflict, and anyone who talks about ‘peace now’ and two states doesn’t understand the conflict.’Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar Party leaderEisenkot would present a fresher, friendlier face, but he is no peacenik. As head of the Israeli military, Eisenkot developed what is known as the Dahieh doctrine, a highly controversial military strategy involving the large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure in a bid to gain an advantage over rivals such as Hezbollah. “What happened in the Dahieh quarter of Beirut in 2006 will happen in every village from which shots will be fired in the direction of Israel,” he said in a 2008 interview. “We will wield disproportionate power and cause immense damage and destruction.”His chief criticism of Netanyahu is not that he has started wars with Israel’s enemies, but that he has failed to achieve decisive victories. Eisenkot said in a recent interview that Israel may need to return to a high-level war with Hamas if the militant group remains in power in Gaza. He has expressed support for Jewish settlement building in the West Bank – which is considered illegal under international law – and has made clear that the creation of a Palestinian state is not on his agenda. “I have never said two states for two peoples because I understand the depth of this religious-national-social conflict, and anyone who talks about ‘peace now’ and two states doesn’t understand the conflict,” he said in a June interview.Regardless of who is in power, the fundamental strategic challenges facing Israel will remain.“Israel is still living in a region in which the threats around it are substantial, and it will need to have robust and sometimes aggressive security tactics to confront this,” Eyal says.If elected, Eisenkot will confront foes like Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. First, he must succeed where most Israeli opposition leaders have failed and defeat Netanyahu.Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. 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