Costa Rica Office Vacancy Could Hit 27% by 2030 as Multinationals Cut Jobs

More than a quarter of Costa Rica’s office space could be sitting empty by 2030 if multinational companies keep cutting jobs, according to Daniel Álvarez, chief executive of Cushman & Wakefield | AB Advisory, a commercial real estate firm allied with Cushman & Wakefield. Álvarez puts the current average office vacancy rate near 19% and projects it will reach 27.1% by the end of the decade. Álvarez said job-loss figures capture only about a third of the impact. Fewer corporate operations, he argued, mean emptier buildings, pressure on rents and knock-on effects for banks, builders, suppliers and retailers that depend on those companies. His warning comes after data from the Costa Rican Social Security System (CCSS) showed free-zone employment fell by 2,205 jobs in July compared with the same month a year earlier, to 200,203 salaried workers. It was the first year-on-year decline in seven years. Business services and manufacturing, which together account for 85% of free-zone jobs, showed the sharpest slowdown. Álvarez estimates that each job in the sector occupies about 11 square meters (118 square feet) of office space. On that basis, the July losses alone would free roughly 24,000 square meters (258,000 square feet), comparable to a Class A office tower. He said Costa Rica already has more office space than demand supports. By his count, San José trails only Mexico City among Latin American cities in office space per 1,000 economically active residents, which in his view makes it unlikely that vacated buildings will refill quickly. In separate remarks published last week, Álvarez cited office availability of 17.7% and said net absorption fell 11.7% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025. Availability and vacancy are related but distinct measures, and he did not reconcile the two figures publicly. Álvarez said lenders that financed office construction and renovation would be exposed if building income falls and owners struggle to service their debt. Larger markets have specialized funds that buy obsolete buildings and reposition them, he noted, but Costa Rica’s market lacks the liquidity and depth to offer that kind of fallback. The effects would reach well beyond real estate, according to Álvarez. He described a chain in which banks finance developers and builders, process payroll and extend credit cards and car and apartment loans to the workers multinationals employ. When those workers lose their jobs or leave the country, he said, demand for rental housing, vehicles and other goods and services falls with them. Álvarez attributed the risk of foreign investment moving elsewhere to the prolonged appreciation of the colón against the dollar, which raises payroll costs for companies that earn their revenue in other currencies. He named Mexico, Guatemala, the Philippines and India as more competitive destinations. Costa Rica originally drew service companies with qualified, bilingual and low-cost labor, Álvarez said, but that labor is no longer low-cost. He described the country as now among the most expensive in Latin America in which to operate. The colón strengthened from ₡507.17 to ₡451.10 per dollar between July 31, 2025, and July 31, 2026. The Association of Free Zone Companies (Azofras) has said currency appreciation raised operating costs in free zones by as much as 30% over the past four years, and coffee producers have raised similar complaints about the exchange rate. Several large employers have closed facilities or cut staff in Costa Rica since 2025, including Intel, Qorvo, Viant, Amazon and Boston Scientific, according to company announcements. Western Union said in September it would eliminate more than 1,000 positions over 12 months, adding to a string of job losses across the export sector. Álvarez said he expects the trend to continue for some time, given how closely service companies watch their cost structures. How far office vacancy rises will depend in large part on the path of the exchange rate and on whether new investment arrives to fill the space that departing operations leave behind.