Cornered Putin could increase attacks on the West and possibly stage incursion on NATO territory, experts warn

Russian President Vladimir Putin could increase attacks on the West and possibly stage an incursion on NATO territory, military experts have warned.US and European leaders are increasingly seeing signs of Moscow conducting probing attacks to test the alliance's resolve, including Russian cruise missiles that have landed in Poland and drones flown into Romania. As the Kremlin struggles to secure the battlefield gains it seeks in Ukraine, analysts are speculating whether Putin intends to escalate his aggressive actions towards European allies in the short term.Philip Ingram, a former British Army colonel, told the Daily Mail: 'Putin is already striking Europe and NATO on a weekly basis. It is no accident we are seeing drones with explosives at a German airport in Leipzig, unidentified drones over German, Danish and US military bases, and some critical infrastructure sites. 'It is no accident we have seen Russian fighters in Baltic countries' airspace and Russian attack drones in Poland. 'It is no accident that undersea cables are being surveilled or cut by shadow fleet shipping dragging anchors. 'Almost daily cyber attacks, reports of spying, and unexplained sabotage are all likely to be Putin attacking us.'Under Article 5 of the treaty that created NATO, members of the 32-country alliance are expected to come to each other's defence, treating an attack on any member state as an attack on them all. The site of a Russian air attack in Odesa on August 9, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine The site of an overnight Russian strike on a private building in Pukhivka village near Kyiv, Ukraine, August 8Russian President Vladimir Putin could increase attacks on the West and possibly stage an incursion on NATO territory, military experts have warned Ingram predicted that Russian attacks 'will probably increase', adding that Putin is pushing the threshold for an Article 5 response to its 'political limit'. One theory circulating is that Putin could grab a city or region in Poland or one of the three Baltic states - all NATO members which have strongly backed Ukraine.British former Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon said the Russian leader might consider a 'small incursion' into Latvia or Estonia, adding that he is 'already targeting us with hybrid warfare - cyber and espionage'. All three Baltic states have strengthened their border defences against Russia and close ally Belarus.The Baltic states have some of the highest defence spending in all of NATO in relative terms - Lithuania directs 5.3 percent of GDP to defence, the most of NATO's 32 members. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned recently: 'I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns kinetic operations.'Not on a large scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure.'NATO members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the alliance. Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times in the last few weeks to shoot down drones, while Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that had earlier crossed into Romanian airspace.And fighter jets were scrambled over 250 per cent more in July compared with a year ago, as Russia continues to probe the West's defences. The sharp increase in the monthly figure for July compared with the same month in 2025 highlights Putin's aggressive stance. 'The numbers do not lie,' said a post by NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum. Last month, Washington warned the Kremlin could be planning an armed incursion on Polish land to test NATO's response.The provocation could see Putin's troops cross over into Poland, and vital infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones.Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told news outlet Onet that the US had been warning Warsaw about the plan for a while.Russia's plan aims to start a crisis to scare Western nations into stopping their support for Ukraine. Polish security experts also warned that Russia and Belarus might send a small number of troops across the NATO border.Power stations could also be targeted in the incursion, through air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.Moscow's strategy relies on the assumption that the US would compel Poland to negotiate, rather than engage militarily. File image: A still image taken from a handout video provided by the Russian Defence Ministry press service on August 7, 2026 shows a Russian self-propelled gun firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine Until now, US intelligence believed the Kremlin dictator would not risk provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine. File image shows a Russian soldier in an unknown location in UkraineAccording to Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the most likely method Putin would use against NATO allies is a 'hybrid attack that falls below the Article 5 threshold'.'Moscow has already deployed a range of such tactics, including sabotage operations, repeated violations of NATO airspace, and sophisticated cyberattacks, to probe allied resolve and map the practical limits of the alliance's response,' Seskuria said.'This strategy has so far proved efficient for the Kremlin because it allows Russia to test NATO's crisis response mechanisms and gather valuable intelligence on how radar networks, air defence systems, and political decision-making chains function under such crises, without triggering a conventional military reaction that would impose serious costs on Moscow.'The Baltic states and Poland have been at the forefront of this hybrid campaign, repeatedly serving as testing grounds for drone incursions, GPS jamming, suspected damage to undersea cables, and other hybrid provocations. 'As the war in Ukraine drags on with no clear end in sight, it is likely that Russia will escalate these non-military tactics further, aiming to intimidate NATO members, exhaust frontline societies, and weaken public and political support for long-term assistance to Kyiv. 'The recent incident at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport marks a qualitative escalation and indicates that Moscow is willing to increase its hybrid pressure.'Ingram agrees that the Russian dictator will 'stop at anything' that might invoke Article 5.But 'that won't stop him pushing to the very political limit of where that Article 5 threshold is,' he added.'He knows it isn't accurately defined and will depend on the political landscape. A landscape he is manipulating on a daily basis for his own ends.' Smoke is seen rising after a Ukrainian strike on a Nizhnekamsk oil refinery in the Russian republic of Tatarstan Nizhnekamsk is home to two oil refineries and a petrochemical plant, responsible for producing millions of tons of gasoline and diesel fuelIt comes as a Ukrainian drone strike on Monday killed at least 13 people, including Central Asian nationals and a child, and wounded 39 others in the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk.The attack marked one of the heaviest civilian tolls in Russia in months.Ukraine's military said it had hit Tatneft's TANECO oil refinery in the Tatarstan region, about 800 km (497 miles) east of Moscow, adding that a fire was recorded at the facility.Russian investigators said they had opened a criminal case into what they qualified as a terrorist attack, saying in a statement that Ukraine had struck residential areas and that a child was among those civilians killed. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the strike had hit industrial facilities and residential buildings and accused Kyiv of deliberately attacking civilians. Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly said they do not target civilians. Seven Uzbek citizens were among those killed in Nizhnekamsk, the Uzbek consulate in Kazan said. A Tajik citizen was also killed, Russian state news agency TASS cited the Tajik foreign ministry as saying.Nine out of 13 victims were in a hostel at the time of the strike, Russian state news agency RIA said, citing the press office of the head of the region. In videos verified by Reuters on social media, smoke can be seen rising over the oil refinery. The TANECO refinery, which was also hit by Ukraine in early June, processed 17 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024, producing 2.7 million tons of gasoline and 8.5 million tons of diesel fuel. Ukraine has stepped up its strikes on Russian oil refineries in recent months in a campaign that has caused fuel shortages in many parts of Russia, although authorities say that most of those initial problems have since been resolved.Ukraine says it wants to bring the price of Russia's war home to ordinary Russians. Moscow has imported fuel from overseas to help bolster supplies. On Sunday, both sides again accused each other of lethal attacks. Three people were killed and 37 wounded in a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, where a multi-story apartment block was hit, while authorities in Russia's Belgorod said five were killed and 25 wounded by a Ukrainian drone attack.