Cop31 opens in Turkey as climate funding and fossil fuels divide nations

United Nations climate talks get under way in Turkey on Monday, as the world heads beyond the 1.5C warming limit and poorer nations seek money to withstand floods and droughts, and countries remain divided over fossil fuels. Delegates from the United States will attend, but will not take part in negotiations. Cop31 runs until 20 November in Antalya, on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Under an unusual arrangement agreed after both Turkey and Australia bid to host, Turkey holds the presidency, while Australia’s climate minister, Chris Bowen, leads the negotiations. Scientists have warned for several years that the world is approaching the 1.5C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. The planet crossed that threshold for the first time over a full year in 2024, although the target is measured over decades, not individual years. In October, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that a sustained breach of 1.5C was now unavoidable, adding that existing policies could drive warming to 2.8C this century, increasing the risk of extreme heat, floods and droughts. Temperatures could eventually fall back below 1.5C, but that would require much bigger cuts in emissions and removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Scientists call this temporary rise above the limit an “overshoot”. “Overshoot is not surrender,” UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said in a message accompanying UNEP’s latest Emissions Gap Report, urging countries to limit how far and for how long temperatures exceed 1.5C. Latest climate plans would cut global emissions by just 6 percent by 2035 compared with 2019 levels – far short of what is needed, the UN’s climate change body warned in October. Meanwhile carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere also reached a record high in 2025, the World Meteorological Organization has said. Medical experts warn climate change is now a 'global health emergency' Billions still missing Adapting to a hotter world, with stronger flood defences, safer homes and more reliable water supplies, will cost developing countries around $305 billion a year by 2035 at today’s prices, UNEP said last week. Wealthy countries provided around $30 billion for such protection in 2024 – barely a tenth of that. At last year's Cop in Brazil, countries agreed to work towards at least a tripling of support. Even if the pledge is fulfilled, it would cover just 20-29 percent of developing countries’ needs by 2035. The agreement also sets no starting year for measuring the increase, UNEP found. African negotiators have asked for dedicated talks on the pledge at Cop31, raising the prospect of an early dispute over the summit agenda. “The problem is not only how much, but on what terms,” wrote Nana Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, who chairs the group representing African countries at UN climate talks, in a commentary published ahead of the summit. He called for predictable grants rather than loans, which add to national debts. For farmers, climate adaptation means better irrigation and drought-resistant crops, helping protect harvests and livelihoods as temperatures rise. Such measures can improve crop yields and reduce the risks farmers face. “Communities facing floods and droughts cannot wait until 2035 to find out what this promise means,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa. Money to recover from disasters is also scarce. An international fund set up to help countries suffering climate-related losses received requests worth $2.8 billion in its first funding round, against just $342 million available. Bad Cop, worse Cop? EU tempers hopes for UN climate summit Stand-off over fossil fuels Coal, oil and gas are the main drivers of global warming. At Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to move away from fossil fuels, but efforts to draw up a formal plan were blocked by some oil and gas-producing nations at last year's summit in Brazil. Last week Brazil published its own voluntary roadmap, urging countries to draw up national plans by 2028, invest in cleaner energy and reduce fossil fuel production as demand falls. However, it sets no binding deadline for ending the use of coal, oil and gas. Brazil is not asking countries to negotiate or formally approve the roadmap, but wants them to use it to turn earlier promises into action. “The agreements already exist,” said Andre Correa do Lago, who chaired Cop30. “What’s important is to implement them.” Separately, Turkey is promoting a voluntary target for electricity to meet 35 percent of global energy use by 2035, replacing some fossil fuels in transport, homes and industry. However, the proposal does not require that electricity to come from clean sources. Turkey and Australia have so far not said whether they would take Brazil’s roadmap forward, with reports that a new binding fossil fuel agreement is unlikely. “The roadmap must not end up as just another report gathering dust on a shelf,” said Fanny Petitbon of campaign group 350.org, in a statement calling for firm commitments, timelines and funding. World powers gather in Pacific to chart climate battle Pacific islands demand action Preparatory talks in Fiji and Tuvalu last month brought negotiators face to face with the threat of rising seas. Pacific island nations are pushing for stronger ocean protection and easier access to money for sea walls, clean water and safer homes. “We do not have a single minute, a single day to lose,” said Turkey’s environment minister and Cop31 president Murat Kurum after visiting Tuvalu, describing the 1.5C warming limit as a matter of survival for island communities. Turkey and Australia also want countries to approve a single overall decision at Cop31, setting out how to deliver existing promises on emissions cuts, protection against climate damage and funding. The proposed text would not create new obligations, but its final wording remains open to negotiation. Negotiators must also settle how a mechanism agreed at Cop30 will support workers and communities affected by the move away from polluting industries. “We’ve got to overshoot it for as little and as short as possible,” said Bowen at the Fiji meeting, referring to the expected rise in temperatures beyond 1.5C. The United States government will not take part in negotiations, after President Donald Trump withdrew the country from the Paris Agreement. That withdrawal was one reason UNEP’s warming projections worsened, the agency said. A delegation of 19 US lawmakers nevertheless plans to attend, although it cannot negotiate on behalf of Washington. The visit would serve an “important diplomatic function”, Democratic congressman Sean Casten told reporters following his party’s midterm election victory.