Cooperstown Notebook: A Rough Year for Giancarlo Stanton and Other Hall of Fame Hopefuls

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images Last year, though he missed the first two and a half months of this season due to bilateral epicondylitis, Giancarlo Stanton bashed 24 homers in 77 games while hitting for a 158 wRC+ and 1.8 bWAR. Despite its half-season nature, the campaign was his strongest since 2021, and it appeared as though he had enough momentum to reach 500 home runs and, quite likely, secure a spot in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, Stanton has once again been unable to stay on the field. After straining his right calf in late April and then reinjuring it while rehabbing in mid-June, he suffered a moderate-grade left calf strain last week, one that may very well prevent him from playing again this season. Manager Aaron Boone said on Saturday that Stanton strained his left calf while running the bases earlier in the week. He didn’t offer a timetable for the slugger’s return, but conceded, “We’re at a point in the calendar where it gets challenging… You all know how bad he wants to be on that field and contributing to a championship… Hopefully we just continue working to get him right and healthy.” The 36-year-old Stanton has played in just 24 games this season, batting .256/.302/.422 (103 wRC+) with just three homers in 96 plate appearances. Those three homers boosted his career total to 456, the most of any active player, but they’ve run critical time off of his clock, so to speak. By colleague Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS-driven estimate, Stanton had a 71% chance of reaching 500 homers coming into the season, but per Dan’s hot-off-the-presses estimate, those odds are down to 51%, and to these eyes that still feels high. Stanton’s MVP award, two home run titles, five All-Star appearances, postseason performance (.254/.322/.605 with 18 homers) and otherworldly Statcast numbers might be enough to overcome a slight shortage in JAWS, but with just 47.0 career WAR (the Baseball Reference version, which is true for all of the figures cited here unless otherwise indicated), 35.4 peak WAR, and 41.2 JAWS, he’s just 37th among right fielders, 14.8 points below the standard. I don’t think that’s going to cut it. Stanton isn’t the only veteran whose chances of making the Hall of Fame have taken a hit this year. In fact, it’s been a particularly rough season for Hall hopefuls, even for several players who may still be on their way. Aaron Judge’s fractured rib, Carlos Correa’s torn tendon in his ankle, the fractured hamates of Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez, Trea Turner’s mystifying struggles on both sides of the ball, age catching up to Jose Altuve and Manny Machado — all of these have been downers to watch, or in the case of players missing significant time, not watch. For this year’s version of my annual roundup checking in players’ progress towards Cooperstown, I’ve split the players into two groups: those whose chances have been substantially hurt by their poor performance or missed time this season, and those who’ve seen their odds improve, or at least not be dramatically harmed. As there are a lot more players in the first group, and as I’ve gone over their credentials in greater detail in the past, I’m not going to dwell on their cases at length; we can get back to that somewhere else down the road. I’m also not going to get too far into discussing young players. Yes, Bobby Witt Jr. may finally get his MVP award while banking his third straight 7-WAR season (he’s at 6.2), and his 28.1 WAR through his age-26 season puts him in the company of some Hall of Fame shortstops like Alan Trammell (28.4) and Derek Jeter (28.0), but cautionary tales such as Jim Fregosi (32.6), Nomar Garciaparra (27.9), and Troy Tulowitzki (26.6) are in that ballpark as well. We can wade into those waters another day. What follows here is a partial position-by-position roundup. If you’re wondering why, say, Freddie Freeman or Chris Sale isn’t here, it’s because they’ve landed on the equivalent of the “Nice” list — to be rounded up in my next installment — rather than this “Naughty” one. I’ve included each player’s JAWS standing, his 2026 WAR (again, bWAR unless otherwise indicated), and his ZiPS rest-of-season projection: You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. 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Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Starting Pitchers Player Age Career WAR Adj. Peak WAR S-JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Justin Verlander 43 81.8 50.1 65.9 18 -0.2 0.2 Max Scherzer 42 74.8 47.6 61.2 27 -0.9 0.1 AVG HOF SP 73.0 40.7 56.8 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR. Justin Verlander After a rocky start to his 2025 season with the Giants, Verlander made a strong second-half rebound that suggested he was hardly done. He returned to where his journey to Cooperstown began by re-signing with the Tigers just as camp opened this February, but he hasn’t gotten the hoped-for storybook ending. In his lone start, he departed in the fourth inning due to left hip inflammation, and a subsequent left hamstring strain in late June further slowed his return. Just before the All-Star break, he announced that this would be his final season, and was added to the American League All-Star Game roster by commissioner Rob Manfred as a Legend Pick. He still hasn’t returned to action, and at this point, the likelihood is that at best he makes a late-September farewell cameo. Nonetheless, his 266 wins, 3,554 strikeouts (eighth all-time), three Cy Youngs, and S-JAWS ranking guarantee him first-ballot entry on the 2032 ballot. Max Scherzer The 42-yer-old Scherzer has yet to announce whether this is his final go-round, but he’s had a rough, injury-wracked season himself, going 1-6 with a 7.40 ERA in 45 innings. He did climb into the top 10 in strikeouts and has 3,521 now to go with 222 wins, three Cy Youngs, and an above-standard S-JAWS. He’ll be a first-ballot entry as well, whether that’s in 2032 or ’33. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Relief Pitchers Player Age Career WAR WPA WPA/LI R-JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Craig Kimbrel 38 22.9 22.5 14.4 20.0 18 0.2 0.0 AVG HOF RP 37.8 29.9 19.7 29.2 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR. Craig Kimbrel Through the end of the 2023 season — the right-hander’s ninth earning All-Star honors — Kimbrel trailed Kenley Jansen 420 to 417 in saves, and the two were in a virtual tie for 14th in R-JAWS at 20.9, 0.1 below Hall of Famer Lee Smith. Kimbrel has since pitched for six different teams — including the Mets, Rays, and Royals this year — while netting -0.5 WAR and notching 24 saves, 23 of them with the Orioles before they cut him in late September of 2024 as he dealt with mechanical woes. He’s slipped to 18th in R-JAWS (20.0) while Jansen is seventh (24.4) with 51 more saves (492 to 441). All of this might feel depressing, but the 38-year-old Kimbrel has actually embraced this phase of his career. As he said when he signed with the Royals earlier this month, “It’s been fun, actually… Getting to know the game in a little different light. Getting to talk to guys who are on their way up. Spent a lot of time in Triple-A last year. Getting to see the game through that lens. Getting to talk to guys and meet guys at that level.” He added that he felt he could “show the guys what’s worked for me and have those conversations.” If only we all could age so gracefully. As for Jansen and starting pitchers Sale, Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and the unicorn that is Shohei Ohtani, I’ll catch up with them in the next installment. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Catchers Player Age Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Salvador Perez 36 17.9 16.0 16.9 -1.1 0.0 AVG HOF C (fWAR w/ framing*) 65.3 45.1 55.2 Salvador Perez 36 35.4 24.4 29.9 -0.4 0.0 AVG HOF C (bWAR no framing) 53.7 34.9 44.3 Source: Baseball-Reference * FanGraphs’ framing-inclusive WAR values. 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR. Salvador Perez Perez is an icon in Kansas City, with nine All-Star appearances, five Gold Gloves, 320 homers, and a World Series MVP award, but he’s nearing the end of the line. Over the past four seasons, he’s been worth 0.5 WAR or less three times, including this year, when his .222/.267/.376 (73 wRC+) performance has been more than a win below replacement level. By either traditional or framing-inclusive JAWS, he’s far short of the mark for catchers. By the former, he’s had just one 5.0-WAR season and one other worth at least 4.0 WAR; his career .299 on-base percentage is such a drag on his value that he surpasses only two of the 17 enshrined catchers, Ray Schalk and Rick Ferrell, in WAR and JAWS. And then there’s his pitch framing. By our measure, Perez is 126.8 runs below average in that department, the second-lowest mark of any catcher dating back to 2008, the start of the pitch tracking era. That’s over 290 runs behind the top two catchers, Russell Martin and Brian McCann, both of whom fell off the BBWAA ballot after receiving less than 5% in their 2025 debuts. It’s 277.9 runs behind Yadier Molina, who will become eligible in 2028 and who has a stronger traditional JAWS line (41.7/28.7/35.2) than Perez, and 255.6 runs behind Buster Posey, who will debut on the 2027 ballot this winter and has an even stronger traditional JAWS line than Molina (45.0/36.5/40.8) despite a much shorter career. Both have even better framing-inclusive lines, with Molina at 59.3/37.6/48.5 using Baseball Prospectus data to fill in the gaps for his pre-2008 seasons, and Posey at 57.9/47.7/52.8. The only enshrined catchers for whom we have framing data are Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and Joe Mauer, much of it from the older BP sources, but those guys were particularly valuable. Even with that fJAWS average coming down with the forthcoming elections of Molina and Posey, I don’t see how Perez can measure up in comparison. Elsewhere, between Cal Raleigh’s historic collapse from last year’s 60-homer campaign, Will Smith’s prolonged absence due to inflammation in his neck, and J.T. Realmuto’s continued fade, active veteran catchers besides Perez don’t give us much to talk about from a Hall standpoint, so around the diamond we go, skipping past first base, where there’s good news for Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson, and Freeman in the next installment. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Second Basemen Player Age Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Jose Altuve 36 53.5 40.2 46.8 19 0.1 0.3 Marcus Semien 35 49.7 41.0 45.4 23 0.2 0.3 AVG HOF 2B 69.1 44.2 56.6 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR Jose Altuve Altuve’s bat has dipped to around league average (.245/.309/.399, 99 wRC+), and with just 99 hits, his odds of reaching 3,000 — he’s at 2,487 — have dropped from 41% in last year’s roundup to 36% currently. What’s more, after an early-2025 foray into left field failed to work out, he’s back at second base, where his defense (-13 DRS) has offset virtually all of his offensive value. He really should be DHing, but with Yordan Alvarez on his way to a possible Triple Crown and too injury-prone to put in the field on a regular basis, that avenue is closed in Houston. At this point, Altuve is nearly 10 points below the standard JAWS-wise, barely ahead of current candidate Dustin Pedroia (51.8/40.9/46.4), who played just nine games after his age-33 season, and far behind Chase Utley (64.6/49.3/56.9), who got a late start. I think voters will be swayed by Altuve’s traditional stats, underdog story line, and reports that he rejected the help provided by the Astros’ trash can signaling system, but I don’t expect him to look like a strong pick from an advanced-stat standpoint. Marcus Semien Strong defense has helped Semien clear the 7.0 WAR bar three times, each accompanied by a third-place finish in the MVP voting. He reached the 40.0-WAR peak mark — a strong indicator of future election, with about three-quarters of eligible candidates eventually elected — in 2024, but his offense has since collapsed. He’s hitting just .213/.270/.350 (75 wRC+) and has two more years under contract, but at this rate I’m not even sure he’ll be worth a roster spot by the end of his deal, let alone in a position to convince voters that he’s worthy of election. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Third Basemen Player Age Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Manny Machado 33 62.6 42.7 52.7 17 0.7 0.6 José Ramírez 33 59.8 44.7 52.2 19 2.1 0.8 Matt Chapman 33 44.6 37.3 41.0 34 2.9 0.0 AVG HOF 3B 68.9 43.4 56.1 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR Manny Machado When I checked in on Machado in June 2025, he was in the midst of a revival as he approached his 2,000th hit; by ZiPS, he had a 31% chance of reaching 3,000. He’s now at 2,172 hits, but with just 103 this year on the back of a .216/.303/.410 (98 wRC+) line, his odds have plummeted to 12%. His first-half numbers were rough, sunk by a .127/.202/.324 performance in May, and after posting a 152 wRC+ in July, he’s back down to 81 in August. If his current wRC+ holds, it will be his worst offensive performance since his 2012 rookie season. He’s still got seven more seasons under contract, so this could get worse, or at the very least become quite a slog, though I still think he’ll wind up in Cooperstown. José Ramírez A fractured left hamate knocked Ramírez out of action for nearly six weeks at a point when he was already struggling to hit for power, and with his slugging percentage down 43 points since then, he’s batting just .235/.335/.375 (100 wRC+) on the season. Before he got injured, he overtook Machado and Nolan Arenado in the JAWS rankings, but Machado is now back in the lead, with the other two tied. While Ramírez is just two months younger than Machado, he’s held his value better thanks to stronger offense, with a 19.7–10.7 advantage in WAR since the start of the 2023 season, though his 1,752 hit total is 420 fewer than Manny. I’m still less worried about him than most players here. Matt Chapman Strong defense, including five Gold Gloves and a 124 career DRS, has put Chapman on my radar. He’s banked three seasons of at least 7.0 WAR, including one in 2024, but between recurrent inflammation in his right hand last year and a season-ending core muscle injury that required surgery this season, he’s played in just 212 games over the past two seasons, and through his age-33 season, he has just 1,073 hits. As for Arenado and Alex Bregman, we’ll see them in the next installment. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Shortstops Player Age Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Francisco Lindor 32 56.5 42.3 49.4 19 1.0 0.8 Carlos Correa 31 47.0 38.4 42.7 27 1.2 0.0 Corey Seager 32 45.2 36.2 40.7 33 2.1 0.6 Xander Bogaerts 33 43.4 34.3 38.9 38 1.3 0.5 Trea Turner 33 41.7 32.8 37.3 43 0.0 0.6 AVG HOF SS 67.7 43.2 55.5 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR Francisco Lindor A fractured left hamate suffered in early February didn’t cost Lindor any regular season time, but a left calf strain sidelined him for two months, prolonging his all-too-typical slow start; meanwhile, the Mets’ season went down the tubes. With 24.1 WAR from 2022–25, not to mention a second-place MVP finish and a long-overdue first All-Star appearance since being traded to the Mets, Lindor was really cooking for awhile, and had started pulling away from the pack here. Hopefully he can regain that momentum. Carlos Correa On the heels of a subpar offensive season in 2025 (.276/.332/.402), during which he was traded from the Twins back to the Astros, Correa got off to a strong start this year, hitting .279/.369/.418 through 32 games, but he completely tore the peroneus brevis tendon in his left ankle while taking batting practice in early May, an injury that required season-ending surgery. This is his third season playing fewer than 100 games due to injuries, including 2019 and ’24. He and Lindor both debuted in the same week in June 2015, but Lindor has now racked up 324 more games played, 299 more hits, and 9.5 more WAR. Correa didn’t even rate a mention in Szymborski’s milestones roundup, which isn’t a good sign. Corey Seager Though he played in just 344 games from 2023–25 while making six separate trips to the injured list — three for hamstring strains, plus a thumb sprain, surgery to repair a sports hernia, and an appendectomy — Seager was at the top of his game, totaling 18.5 WAR in that span. This year, while being limited to 70 games due to a concussion and lower back inflammation, he’s scuffled at the plate, hitting .224/.321/.413 (106 wRC+) with 13 homers, enough power to offset his low batting average. He’s still been good enough defensively that his season would prorate out to well over 4.0 WAR if he could stay healthy, but whether by chronic issues or flukes, that seems to be beyond him. Xander Bogaerts By the time he departed Boston in free agency following the 2022 season, Bogaerts had banked four seasons worth 4.9 WAR or more, but he hasn’t had a season worth more than 2.1 WAR since 2023, his first year in San Diego. He’s in the midst of a career-worst campaign at the plate, batting just .219/.318/.328 (87 wRC+), and he’s now a below-average shortstop. As he becomes further removed from the high level of play he exhibited in his Red Sox days, his chances are fading. Trea Turner Just last year, Turner won his second batting title, racked up a 5.4-WAR season, and finished fifth in the NL MVP voting, but he’s fallen apart on both sides of the ball in 2026, batting just .245/.298/.390 (87 wRC+) with -13 DRS at shortstop, one run off his career low. He’s always been several beats behind Lindor and Correa despite debuting just a couple of months after they did, but even with their struggles this season, Turner is falling further behind. Hall of Fame Progress 2026 — Right Fielders Player Age Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS Rk 2026 WAR 2026 Proj Aaron Judge 34 64.3 56.9 60.6 9 2.0 1.2 Juan Soto 27 45.2 40.3 42.8 32 2.7 0.9 Giancarlo Stanton 36 47.0 35.4 41.2 37 0.2 0.0 AVG HOF RF 69.7 42.3 56.0 Source: Baseball-Reference 2026 Proj = ZiPS rest-of-season projected WAR Aaron Judge With three MVP awards, three home run titles, the ninth-ranked JAWS at his position, and the fourth-highest peak score, Judge looks like a sure-fire Hall of Famer despite his distance from 2,000 hits (he has just 1,258), but he hasn’t played since May 31 due to a stress fracture in his right first rib, an injury that at one point had doctors concerned he might be suffering from thoracic outlet syndrome. Alas, he’s lived up to his reputation as a slow healer, so he’s played just 59 games and hit 17 homers. He began a hitting progression last week, so he should be back early next month, but substantial progress towards his 400th home run (he’s 15 short) will have to wait until next season. He does have a 28% chance of reaching 600 according to ZiPS, which is pretty cool. Juan Soto By far the youngest player here, Soto has been great when he’s played, hitting .283/.408/.539 (159 wRC+) with 21 homers, but strains of his right calf in April and his left calf in late July have limited him to 84 games. Prior to this season, he had been exceptionally durable, playing in at least 150 games annually from 2019–25 save for the pandemic-shortened season, so it’s a bit early to fret that this is going to become an ongoing problem. Assuming he does return, he needs just 0.4 WAR for this to become one of his seven best seasons, boosting his peak score a bit, though a full, healthy season should obliterate that at some point. Giancarlo Stanton One more point to add regarding Stanton: He may well be finished in the Bronx, because for as respected as he is in the clubhouse and with regards to his home run-hitting upside, the Yankees simply can’t plan around him. Stanton is heading into the final guaranteed season of his contract, with the Yankees on the hook for another $25 million; the $10 million of his salary to be paid by the Marlins is offset by a $10 million buyout of his $25 million club option for 2028. Given that the team cut bait on Jacoby Ellsbury in 2019 with about $26 million remaining, and DJ LeMahieu last year with $22 million remaining, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were to release Stanton, or eat most of the remaining money in a trade. Perhaps another team and another training staff can find a way to keep him on the field and give him a better shot at 500 homers. Despite a career-worst 91 wRC+, right fielder-turned-shortstop Mookie Betts has played strong enough defense to merit coverage in my next roundup, where I’ll catch up with Bryce Harper and a resurgent Mike Trout as well.