Conundrum over demography panel’s questionnaire seeking extensive data | Explained

The story so far: The Hindu had reported on September 28, 2026 that a High-Level Committee on Demographic Changes (HLCDC), constituted by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has sent State governments a 35-point questionnaire seeking extensive data on demographic changes over the past 15 years.A significant portion of the information has been sought both district-wise and religion-wise, covering Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Parsis.The questions seek religion-wise break up of birth registrations, school enrolment, ration cards, vehicle registrations, property transactions and voter registrations. The committee has also asked States to identify unusual increases in Aadhaar enrolments, voter IDs and ration cards and furnish information about forged identity documents.But State government officials say much of this data simply does not exist in the form in which it has been sought. Administrative databases ordinarily do not classify citizens by religion across many of these categories.The HLCDC, headed by retired Supreme Court judge Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar, was constituted by the Ministry of Home Affairs on May 26 to study demographic changes arising from illegal immigration and other ‘abnormal’ reasons and recommend measures to address them. The committee has been given one year to submit its report, though the Ministry can extend its tenure by up to six months.What exactly has the committee sought?The questionnaire seeks information under five broad heads: demographic trends, migration, administrative challenges, institutional mechanisms, and studies and measures adopted by States and Union Territories.For example, States have been asked to provide details of districts showing “unusual school enrolment trends inconsistent with historical birth rates”, along with possible reasons.The committee has sought religion- and district-wise voter-registration data for the past 15 years concerning individuals “without prior-generation birth certificates or familial legacy records”, including any trends or geographical concentrations noticed by authorities.States have similarly been asked to identify unusual increases in Aadhaar enrolments, ration cards and voter IDs, as well as cases involving forged identity documents.Another set of questions examines changes in religious composition, particularly in cities, industrial centres, border districts, tribal regions and areas governed by the Fifth and Sixth Schedules of the Constitution.The committee has also sought State government studies, intelligence assessments, commission reports and White Papers examining such changes.Why are States finding the questionnaire difficult to answer?State government officials told The Hindu that much of the government data being sought is not maintained religion-wise. The committee, for instance, wants 15 years of religion-wise and district-wise data on transport and non-transport vehicle registrations. It has separately asked for religion-wise details of property transactions and information on unusual land acquisition, demographic clustering and property ownership patterns. Similar information has been sought on the religion-wise distribution of ration cards and school enrolment.State officials say their departments cannot readily generate many of these figures because religion is not ordinarily an administrative field in the underlying databases.What information has been sought on religious institutions and tribal areas?The questionnaire asks for district-wise data on religious structures, including temples, mosques and churches, established during the previous 15 years. It also asks whether GIS mapping or other technology has been used to identify such structures.States have been asked to provide information on changes in the religious composition of Scheduled Tribe populations and furnish studies, intelligence assessments or commission reports concerning religious conversion among tribal communities. The committee wants district-wise trends, possible reasons and details of action taken by authorities.It has also sought information concerning tribal land transfers, illegal transfers and encroachments in tribal and Scheduled Areas.The education-related questions include details of government, private and religious educational institutions in tribal-dominated districts, as well as any GIS mapping of religious educational institutions, including madrasas.How does illegal immigration figure in the exercise?Illegal immigration is another major component of the committee’s terms of reference and questionnaire. States have been asked for information on operational detention centres and the identification, detention, deportation or repatriation of undocumented migrants.The committee has also sought information about cases in which undocumented migrants were allegedly found using forged documents, as well as cases linking them to organised crime, human trafficking or narcotics offences.It wants States to describe the intelligence, technical and community-level mechanisms used to identify undocumented migrants.The questionnaire goes a step further by asking States what policy directives, executive orders or amendments to land and municipal laws they have introduced during the past 15 years to curb unauthorised migration and settlement.It has also sought suggestions on whether fresh legislation is required to strengthen surveillance and take action to “reverse abnormal religious demographic change”.Who is on the committee and what is its mandate?The HLCDC, headed by retired Supreme Court judge Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar, was constituted by the MHA on May 26 to study demographic changes arising from illegal immigration and other “abnormal” reasons and recommend measures to address them.The committee has been given one year to submit its report, though the Ministry can extend its tenure by up to six months.Its terms of reference also require it to recommend an appropriate institutional mechanism for “population stabilisation”.The committee has so far visited the Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir and plans to visit Maharashtra next. However, a committee member said responses from State governments are still awaited.Why does the Election Commission’s data matter?The committee has also approached the Election Commission (EC) for information concerning people excluded from electoral rolls on citizenship grounds.On May 27, the Supreme Court, while upholding the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise in Bihar, held that the EC could verify citizenship to the limited extent necessary to determine whether a person should be included in or excluded from the electoral roll.The court directed the EC to refer to the Centre, for adjudication by a competent authority under the Citizenship Act, 1955, the names of electors who had figured in Bihar’s 2003 electoral roll but were removed during the SIR on the ground that they were not citizens.Government sources said the demographic changes committee has sought this information from the EC but is yet to receive it.A committee member said a meeting was held with EC officials, but data on people excluded during the SIR on suspicion of being foreign nationals staying illegally in India was still awaited.Why was the committee set up now?The exercise follows an increasing policy focus by the Centre on demographic change.On August 15, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a High-Power Demography Mission, saying the country’s demography was being altered as part of a “conspiracy” and “well-planned plot” and that the mission would address what he described as a grave crisis.A similar proposal had been announced before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In her interim Budget speech on February 1, 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said a high-powered committee would be constituted to examine challenges arising from “fast population growth and demographic changes”. That committee did not take off.The current exercise also comes against an unusual statistical backdrop. India’s last completed Census was held in 2011, leaving policymakers without a subsequent decennial Census to measure district-level changes in population, migration and religious composition.Is India experiencing rapid population growth?At the national level, recent fertility and birth-rate indicators point in the opposite direction.The Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2024 puts India’s birth rate at 18.3 births per 1,000 population, down from 21 in 2014.The National Family Health Survey-5, published in 2022, placed India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), or the average number of children born to a woman over her reproductive years, at 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1.The committee’s inquiry, therefore, is not limited to overall population growth. Its questionnaire concentrates heavily on changes in the geographical and religious composition of populations, migration and what it describes as abnormal demographic changes.Have security agencies raised similar concerns earlier?Yes. Police and intelligence agencies have previously flagged demographic changes in border areas.At the annual Directors General and Inspectors General of Police conference in 2021, officers from Uttar Pradesh and Assam submitted papers examining population changes in districts bordering Nepal and Bangladesh.A subsequent compilation by the Intelligence Bureau said studies presented at the conference had used Census figures, National Family Health Survey data, electoral rolls and local surveys to examine changes in border States, districts, subdivisions and villages.The papers argued that demographic changes in the border belt posed a national security challenge and proposed strengthening intelligence networks and policing in such areas.The Assam Police paper estimated population growth between 2011 and 2021 within 10 km of the Bangladesh border at 31.45%, compared with projected national and State growth of 12.5% and 13.54%, respectively. The Uttar Pradesh paper said that among 1,047 villages in seven border districts, 303 had a Muslim population of between 30% and 50%, while 116 had a Muslim population exceeding 50%.The proposals arising from the papers included more police stations in border areas, strengthening intelligence networks, village-level defence committees and greater involvement of border residents in border management.What has been the BJP’s stand in the past on religion-specific data?The collection of religion-specific administrative data has a political history.In 2006, when it was the principal Opposition party, the BJP opposed recommendations of the Sachar Committee, which had been appointed by the UPA government in 2005 to examine the social, economic and educational condition of Muslims. The BJP questioned the constitutional basis of religion-specific measures and argued that religion-based reservation would be socially divisive.The present committee is not tasked with assessing the socio-economic status of a particular community. Its mandate centres on illegal migration, population stabilisation and demographic changes considered “abnormal”. The breadth of its questionnaire, however, means States are now being asked to assemble substantial volumes of religion-specific information from administrative systems that officials say were never designed to record many of those transactions or services according to citizens’ religion.