College football Polymarket predictions: Staples’ best trades of Week 8

Last Saturday wasn’t only a bloodbath for top-ranked teams. I got destroyed as well. After spending all of last season and all of this season (until last week) with a cumulative against-the-spread record above .500, I have dropped below the halfway mark. It’s time to climb again. Let’s look at some matchups and make predictions based on the odds provided by Polymarket. Last week: 2-11Season: 36-39 Indiana at Michigan (+7.5) Total: 40.5 We start with a trio of games featuring road teams favored by more than a touchdown. At least one of them will lose outright, and it’s possible all of these wind up as one-score games. In the case of the Hoosiers and Wolverines, it’s unclear how much of a difference quarterback Tommy Carr will make for Michigan’s offense against a stingy Indiana defense. Hoosiers QB Josh Hoover appeared to injure his throwing shoulder against Ohio State last week, so it’s also unclear whether he’ll be limited. This feels like a rock fight no matter who wins, so picking a team to win by two scores seems foolish. My position: Michigan +7.5 at 54 percent LSU at Auburn (+7.5) Total: 50.5 This is a classic hangover spot for Auburn, but are we sure LSU is a touchdown better? LSU has blown out average-to-bad teams but has lost to both good teams (Ole Miss and Kentucky) it has played. Auburn has lost a shootout to Florida and a slobberknocker at Tennessee, but Auburn also went to Georgia last week and won. Don’t be shocked if both teams wind up in the 30s. Auburn QB Byrum Brown (seven interceptions) and LSU QB Sam Leavitt (eight interceptions) tend to be turnover-prone, so it may come down to which offense can limit mistakes. My position: Auburn +7.5 at 52 percent BYU at UCF (+7.5) Total: 43.5 Can you suffer from a hangover if your honor code forbids you from drinking alcohol? We’re about to find out. BYU had a potentially program-changing win against Notre Dame, but the Cougars must refocus and work their way through the Big 12 starting with a cross-country trip to Orlando. UCF has lost two in a row to Big 12 contenders (Houston and Oklahoma State), but both of those were on the road. The Knights haven’t won a Big 12 road game in the second Scott Frost era, but they are 3-2 at the Bounce House. My position: BYU -7.5 at 44 percent Tennessee at South Carolina (-2.5) Total: 50.5 Williams-Brice Stadium has been a house of horrors for good Tennessee teams. In 2016, a Volunteers team that opened SEC play with wins against Florida and Georgia cost itself the East Division title with a loss to the Gamecocks. In 2022, Tennessee entered 9-1 and got blown out 63-38 — and also lost starting QB Hendon Hooker to a knee injury. That’s not the only reason why this spread flipped from Tennessee favored by 2.5 to South Carolina favored by 2.5. The Gamecocks looked like a different team in a win at Florida on Oct. 10. The Vols looked dominant in a 26-10 win against Alabama in Knoxville this past Saturday. Who shows up in Columbia this week? The Tennessee defense, for sure. And that may be enough. My position: Tennessee -2.5 at 51 percent Iowa at Minnesota (+6.5) Total: 41.5 The winner of this gets a pig trophy (Floyd of Rosedale), but Iowa is playing for something even more significant. The 5-1 Hawkeyes have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. Though Iowa’s depth chart has an OR between the names of Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown, the offense moved much better with Hecklinski at the helm at Washington on Oct. 9. If that continues, Iowa could be significantly better with a more-than-functional offense playing alongside a dominant defense. My position: Iowa -6.5 at 53 percent Oklahoma at Mississippi State (+4.5) Total: 45.5 We pick games on Mondays on Andy and Ari On3. Each Thursday, we’re allowed to flip one pick if we choose. I’m squatting on Mississippi State +4.5 in case QB Kamario Taylor and/or tailback Fluff Bothwell can play. If it looks like neither will play, I’m flipping my pick to Oklahoma even if the point spread is higher. If Taylor is out and Bothwell plays, I’ll have a dilemma. I have very little faith in Oklahoma’s offense, but Mississippi State without Taylor is a different team. My position: Mississippi State +4.5 at 51 percent Virginia Tech at Clemson (-2.5) Total: 49.5 Clemson has declined a lot from its glory days, but the Tigers dominated the ACC for so long that every team comes into Death Valley wanting to prove a point. So it’s easy to predict that Clemson will have to face the best version of every visitor. The version of Virginia Tech that lost at Cal to a backup QB wouldn’t be able to win this game. The version that will show up Saturday has an excellent chance of winning outright. My position: Virginia Tech +2.5 at 48 percent Ole Miss at Texas (-3.5) Total: 52.5 This is the second instance in the SEC this week of the much higher ranked (road) team being a slight underdog. If Texas plays as poorly on offense as it did against Oklahoma and Florida, Ole Miss will win. If Texas improves slightly on offense, Ole Miss might still win because it still has the better quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss. Plus, Texas likely will be without star edge rusher Collin Simmons. The Longhorns still have the talent to beat anyone they play, but Arch Manning and the offense will need to be much better than we’ve seen. My position: Ole Miss +3.5 at 53 percent USC at Wisconsin (+3.5) Total: 49.5 The Badgers racked up a whopping 66 passing yards against UCLA in what was easily Colton Joseph’s worst throwing game since transferring to Wisconsin. That number should improve against a USC defense that has been far less consistent than its crosstown rival. But USC also should score more on the Badgers than the Bruins did. The return of Trent Mosley in the Penn State game energized the offense. But can the defense keep the Badgers from hogging the ball and limiting possessions? My position: Wisconsin +3.5 at 56 percent Houston at Utah (-6.5) Total: 56.5 Houston probably has to win here to stay alive in the Big 12 title race. Cougars QB Conner Weigman was excellent against Oklahoma State, throwing for 343 yards and five touchdowns and averaging 4.7 yards a carry on the ground. The Utes dominated their opponents for the first month of the season, but they allowed 6.7 yards a play in a win against Kansas and 7.2 yards a play in a way-too-close win at Colorado. If Utah can tighten up the defense in what should be a raucous atmosphere at Rice-Eccles Stadium, they should be able to stay undefeated. My position: Utah -6.5 at 52 percent