College football Polymarket predictions: Staples’ best trades of Week 10

This is the best combination of teams and stakes that we’ve seen on the same Saturday in years. We have playoff elimination games. We have massive brands colliding. We have one historically hateful rivalry in the Beehive State that might have its biggest stakes ever. And that’s just one of the appetizers… Let’s look at some matchups and make predictions based on the odds provided by Polymarket. Last week: 3-8Season: 44-52 BYU at Utah (-5.5) Total: 47.5 BYU coach Kalani Sitake was non-committal Monday about whether star tailback L.J. Martin (ankle) will return for the Holy War. Martin has missed BYU’s last four games, and while quarterback Bear Bachmeier has helped shoulder the load on the ground (in addition to through the air), that’s a big ask against Utah. The Utes need this win just as badly as the Cougars. With Texas Tech sitting with only one conference loss and no games against BYU or Utah, the loser of this game could have a tough time making the Big 12 title game. My position: Utah -5.5 at 51 percent UCLA at Minnesota (+6.5) Total: 39.5 With the exception of a bizarre loss at Purdue, Minnesota has held all its Big Ten opponents to 24 points or fewer. Indiana had 16 at the end of regulation last week. This likely will be the best defense UCLA’s offense has faced so far this season. It’ll be a test for QB Ty Dieffenbach, who has ably replaced Nico Iamaleava so far. The Golden Gophers held Michigan and Iowa to 2.8 and three yards a carry, respectively, in home wins. UCLA ranks No. 11 in the nation at 5.4 yards a carry. If the Bruins struggle on the ground, Dieffenbach will need to make up the difference. Meanwhile, it’s time for Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey to produce in a way that matches the hype he gets from NFL draftniks.My position: Minnesota +6.5 at 54 percent Texas at Missouri (+2.5) Total: 44.5 Neither team wants to take loss No. 3, but Missouri probably needs the win more than Texas from a College Football Playoff standpoint because Texas has one of the nation’s best collections of wins. Still, the Longhorns’ remaining path is treacherous. Texas is very banged up. Tailback Hollywood Smothers returned against Mississippi State but may miss this game. Receiver Cam Coleman is questionable. Edge rusher Collin Simmons is trying to return from an ankle injury suffered against Florida. Steve Sarkisian said Monday the Longhorns will be “undermanned.” This would be a tough matchup for the Longhorns at full strength. The small spread isn’t an accident.My position: Missouri +2.5 at 46 percent Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5) Total: 48.5 The Ducks fought their way back to win a game against Northwestern that they easily could have lost. Ohio State’s defense played its worst game of the season in a loss to USC. Note that I didn’t say anything about freshman QB Luke Fahey being at fault for the Buckeyes’ loss in Los Angeles. He wasn’t. If his coaches trust him more to operate in a hurry-up environment (if the game gets close), he should be fine. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense needs to affect Dylan Raiola in ways it didn’t affect USC’s Jayden Maiava. Oregon’s receivers are as explosive as USC’s, but if Ohio State sends enough pressure, Raiola may not be able to get them the ball.My position: Ohio State -7.5 at 48 percent Alabama at LSU (-5.5) Total: 52.5 These teams should be the healthiest they’ve been in weeks when they face off in Tiger Stadium. LSU hopes to have linebacker Whit Weeks back. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer seemed hopeful Monday that the Crimson Tide will get their best receiver (Ryan Coleman-Williams) and their center (Racin Delgatty) back after two-game absences. The Tide simply run the ball better when Delgatty is in the game, and they’ll need to run well to win at LSU. Tigers QB Sam Leavitt was sharper against Auburn in LSU’s last game than he’s been at any other point this season. If he and the Tigers click the way they did at Auburn, they’ll win what looks like a CFP elimination game.My position: LSU -5.5 at 50 percent Kentucky at Tennessee (-6.5) Total: 50.5 Tennessee has won the past five meetings against the Wildcats, but Kentucky’s program looks and feels completely different under first-year coach Will Stein. The Volunteers are in the more desperate spot; they need to win to keep their CFP hopes alive. Kentucky has a mulligan. The last time Kentucky played an elite defense was at Oklahoma, but the difference between that game and this one is Tennessee’s offense is far more competent thanks to a run game led by tailback DeSean Bishop. A conservative approach for Kentucky’s offense — which worked to perfection against Oklahoma — probably won’t work against the Vols. My position: Tennessee -6.5 Miami at Notre Dame (-5.5) Total: 57.5 There’s no question who needs this win more. Notre Dame’s loss to BYU means this is the Fighting Irish’s last chance to beat an elite opponent. A 10-2 record with losses to the Cougars and Hurricanes may get Notre Dame left out of the CFP just like last year. A win against Miami probably would allow Notre Dame to lose another game — though the Irish probably wouldn’t if they’re capable of winning this one. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, can make the CFP simply by winning the ACC. They’re fine even if they lose here. But with national title aspirations, Miami needs to show it can play better on defense than it did in tight recent wins against Florida State and North Carolina.My position: Notre Dame -5.5 at 51 percent Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5) Total: 56.5 The Rebels need a win to stay alive in the CFP race. One-loss Georgia can feel pretty comfortable with its resume if it can pull off a win in Oxford. Trinidad Chambliss tortured Georgia’s defense twice last season, once in a regular-season loss and once in a CFP quarterfinal win. But this Ole Miss defense isn’t as good as last year’s, and Georgia’s offense is better than last year’s.My position: Georgia -3.5 at 50 percent Iowa at Northwestern (-2.5) Total: 44.5 Iowa is so difficult to predict. In wins against Washington and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes were dynamic on offense. They produced explosive plays. They didn’t need to smother those teams defensively, but they did anyway. But in losses to Ohio State and Minnesota, Iowa’s offense looked hapless. The Hawkeyes can’t afford to have one of those hapless offensive games against the Wildcats. Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly likely will concoct a way to score a few points on Iowa, so the Hawkeyes need to bring their explosive plays to Evanston.My position: Northwestern -2.5 at 52 percent Oklahoma at Florida (-6.5) Total: 45.5 Oklahoma coach Brent Venables fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday and replaced him with tight ends coach Jason Witten. Witten is a future pro football Hall of Famer, but his only playcalling experience came at the high school level. On his radio show Monday, Venables seemed to indicate the Sooners will stick with John Mateer at quarterback. The playcaller change likely will mean more runs for Oklahoma’s backs, but the question is whether that will work against Florida’s defense. It hasn’t produced much for Oklahoma thus far. Meanwhile, Florida coach Jon Sumrall said he wouldn’t make a starting QB announcement after benching Aaron Philo in favor of Tramell Jones Jr. in a loss to Georgia. Jones seems to give the offense a little more spark, but don’t expect to learn the identity of the starter until later in the week.My position: Florida -6.5 at 51 percent 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.