College football bowl, CFP projections after Week 1: Miami, LSU look the part as national title threats

Emphatic wins for the Hurricanes and Tigers have shifted national momentum to both programs early Sep 8, 2026 at 12:36 am ET • 6 min read For programs wanting to leave no doubt and impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee after the first week of the season, Miami and LSU answered the call against Power Four opponents in blowout fashion with style points to boot.Malachi Toney eviscerated Stanford's secondary in his sophomore debut during a scintillating 234-yard, three-touchdown performance, while Lane Kiffin's LSU debut signaled the Tigers as an immediate threat in the SEC thanks to one of the most complete rosters in the country.LSU will play five nationally ranked opponents this fall, compared to only one for the Hurricanes. That gives Kiffin's group margin for error, especially after beating Clemson and grabbing a quality non-conference victory.We've updated our CFP bracket projection along with every other postseason matchup after Week 1. The most significant change? Boise State sliding into the Group of Six's top choice despite a season-opening loss at Oregon. If the Broncos take out unbeaten Memphis in Week 2, the path is abundantly clear for Boise State to get to the playoff from the Pac-12. Memphis handled UNLV on the road in Week 0 before holding off Arkansas State over the weekend, proving Charles Huff is ahead of schedule in his first season with the Tigers.College Football Playoff projections First round DATE LOCATIONPROJECTIONWINNER FACESDec. 18, 2026 Ohio StadiumColumbus, Ohio(9) LSU at (8) OregonNo. 1 MiamiDec. 19, 2026 Memorial StadiumBloomington, Indiana(10) BYU at (7) IndianaNo. 2 GeorgiaDec. 19, 2026 Jones AT&T StadiumLubbock, Texas(11) SMU at (6) Texas TechNo. 3 Ohio StateDec. 19, 2026 DKR-Texas StadiumAustin, Texas(12) Boise State at (5) TexasNo. 4 Notre DameDon't see your team? Check out Brad Crawford's complete bowl projections for every game.Projected College Football Playoff field breakdownNo. 1 Miami (ACC champion): My preseason No. 1 and only projected team to get through the regular season unscathed this fall, the Hurricanes looked the part in Friday night's drubbing of Stanford. The Darian Mensah-to-Malachi Toney connection looks unstoppable, and the former Duke quarterback finished with 401 yards through the air. It's unlikely Miami will be tested this season before a Nov. 7 showdown at Notre Dame, so the focus here is execution and avoiding an unexpected trip up in the ACC.No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion): How's a 60-point win to open the season for Kirby Smart and his boys? The SEC was a perfect 16-0 over the weekend, disposing of several out-manned opponents along with marquee wins for LSU and Ole Miss against Power Four competition. Georgia was perfect against Tennessee State, scoring four first-quarter touchdowns in the rout. Gunner Stockton was sharp, Nate Frazier piled up three touchdowns, and Mike Bobo did enough to get a fifth quarterback into the game.No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten champion): The Buckeyes played it safe against Ball State with a seismic matchup coming at Texas this weekend, and Ryan Day couldn't have scripted a better first showing for Ohio State's new-look offense. Play-caller Arthur Smith's game plan was to get the football to Jeremiah Smith in the first half — eight catches for 151 yards — and get him out of there for the second. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns before coming out of the contest midway through the third quarter.No. 4 Notre Dame: After going the speed limit in the first half of Sunday night's 41-13 victory over Wisconsin, the Irish outscored the Badgers 28-3 after intermission and kicked into overdrive with impressive execution on both sides of the football. They've found their RB1 in Aneyas Williams and Nolan James, another running back in Notre Dame's by-committee approach, who torched the Badgers out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. DJ McKinney's pick six in the third quarter broke it open as the Irish passed the eye test in the opener.No. 5 Texas (SEC runner-up): We'll know more about the Longhorns and their CFP path after this weekend's battle with Ohio State, but this renovated offense with new additions looked superb in the opener. Cam Coleman scored two touchdowns, Arch Manning threw for 305 yards and four scores, and Will Muschamp's defense forced three turnovers during a 52-point beatdown of Texas State.No. 6 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): After a pair of first-quarter touchdown runs from J'Koby Williams and Quinten Joyner, the Red Raiders went six consecutive possessions without a touchdown against Abilene Christian. The 33-10 win was never in doubt for the heavy Big 12 favorites, but several drives stalled out, leading to field goals. Will Hammond went 26 of 33 for 298 yards, an interception and a 64-yard touchdown pass late for the Red Raiders, who may not be as dominant as they were last season. But this is a one-game sample size, and we're not pulling hard narratives, yet.No. 7 Indiana (Big Ten runner-up): The Hoosiers pulled away from North Texas with a 21-point fourth quarter to extend their nation-leading winning streak to 17 games under Curt Cignetti. That's going to end against a Big Ten opponent later this fall, but Indiana will be back in the playoff if it gets to double-digit wins. It's a new, annual expectation in Bloomington after winning a national championship.No. 8 Oregon: See what happens when you open against a respectable opponent with two new coordinators making their highly anticipated debuts? There's no need to panic if you're the Ducks after narrowly escaping Boise State at home. No one on the selection committee is going to point to that one unless the conversation centers around the Broncos and their Group of Six hopes. Oregon overcame a sputtering start, delivered in the second half when it mattered and avoided Week 1's biggest upset. All is well in Eugene.No. 9 LSU: We're not altering our projected playoff seed just yet for the Tigers, but if there's any team that created value for itself in Week 1, it was LSU. It looked personal for Lane Kiffin, whose squad abused Clemson in Baton Rouge to hand Dabo Swinney his worst career loss. It was a necessary primetime statement for an LSU team facing a plethora of distractions coming into the campaign as college football's public enemy No. 1 and a transfer-infused roster that, at least on paper, looks unstoppable. The first test was aced with precision. Ole Miss in Week 3 will provide further anecdotes. No. 10 BYU (Big 12 runner-up): The Cougars chose not to play with their food the first time out, running off 42 first-half points during a 63-7 blitzkrieg of Utah Tech. BYU forced four turnovers, delivered 9 of 11 third-down conversions and piled up 308 yards rushing against a team that essentially amounted to a practice squad opponent. Bear Bachmeier's continued development at quarterback is an area to watch this fall.No. 11 SMU (ACC runner-up): Opening the season with a key conference win at Florida State is better than most contenders can say after Week 1, considering the majority of preseason top-25 teams enjoyed glorified practices against weak competition. We're projecting the winner of SMU-Louisville later this month to reach the ACC Championship Game against Miami this fall. The Cardinals could've strengthened their CFP hopes with a win over Ole Miss, but it wasn't to be during Sunday night's epic 41-38 tussle in Nashville.No. 12 Boise State: The Broncos fought valiantly at Oregon during one of Week 1's best games, showing fight and resiliency throughout. Sans a coverage breakdown midway through the fourth quarter that Dakorien Moore exploited for a go-ahead 62-yard touchdown reception, Spencer Danielson has to like what he saw from his team — clearly one of the most complete in the Group of Six. Boise State's upcoming matchup with Memphis (2-0) provides an early glimpse at the frontrunner for the auto-bid from outside the Power Four.