College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after opening week of action

The AP Poll Top 25 will make its regular season debut on Monday, providing the first look at how voters view the top teams in college basketball after a week of results. While there are few losses to consider, the biggest question comes in what happens to the programs which added more talent to the roster after the preseason poll dropped. On the court, Florida and Miami opened the season with a highly-anticipated matchup while UConn and Michigan played a rematch of the 2026 national championship game. Arkansas and Virginia also hit the court in a top-ranked showdown to close the week. After the first week of the college basketball season wraps up, it is time to look at how the results could impact the upcoming rankings. Here is an early projection of what Monday’s AP Poll could look like after the first set of games. These rankings will be updated as games go final on Sunday night. 25. BYU (Preseason: 25) BYU held the final spot in the preseason AP Poll, sitting at No. 25 entering the season. They did well to hold onto that spot with a season-opening win over Ohio State in the Bad Boy Mowers Series before following it up with a blowout win over Omaha on the weekend. The Cougars will continue the homestand on Tuesday when they take on Queens. They will be back in action with a short turnaround on Thursday against Montana State as the non-conference schedule continues. 24. Vanderbilt (Preseason: 24) Vanderbilt opened the year at No. 24 in the AP Poll, and did well in the first week to impress. They picked up a dominant home win in the opener against Bellarmine, then following it up with a high-major win at home against Wake Forest on Thursday. The Commodores will continue the run of home games on Tuesday when they host Memphis for an in-state matchup. From there, they play another buy game against Praire View A&M on Friday. 23. Kentucky (Preseason: 23) Kentucky opened the season with a pair of wins over lesser competition at home after starting No. 23 in the preseason AP Poll. They took down Manhattan in the season opener before a close matchup against James Madison over the weekend. The Wildcats will get their first chance against high-major competition on Tuesday when they face Kansas in the State Farm Champions Classic. After that, they will get another buy game at home against Northern Arizona. 22. Iowa State (Preseason: 18) Iowa State entered the season ranked No. 18 but became the first ranked side to suffer a loss against an unranked opponent when they lost on a neutral floor against Memphis on the opening day. They bounced back well on Friday, taking down Southern Miss in convincing fashion. The Cyclones now prepare for another home game against Southern on the schedule. They will follow that up with another buy game in front of their fans against Niagara on Sunday. 21. USC (Preseason: 21) USC entered the year as the No. 21 team in the AP Poll, backing it up with a dominant home victory over Milwaukee on opening day. They will now take on Wichita State on a neutral floor to wrap up the weekend, but only a loss will impact where they finish in the projections. The Trojans will continue the schedule next week with a road game against former conference foe California on Wednesday. They will then have another home game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff scheduled for Sunday. 20. Alabama (Preseason: 20) Alabama opens the season as the No. 20 team in the preseason AP Poll. They picked up a big win over Sam Houston to start the year before another home victory over Arkansas State to keep things rolling early. The Crimson Tide will now set their sights on a home game against Oakland on Monday. They will then get their first chance to compete against high-major competition when Seton Hall visits in front of the home crowd. 19. Texas Tech (Preseason: 19) Texas Tech entered the new season ranked No. 19 in the preseason AP Poll and started off its campaign with a pair of big wins over lesser competition. They opened the year against Jackson State before then taking on Bethune-Cookman in a pair of home games. The Red Raiders will get their first taste of high-major competition on Tuesday when they host Illinois in a big-time matchup. They will follow that with another home game scheduled against Stonehill. 18. Michigan (Preseason: 16) Michigan came into the season ranked No. 16 after winning the national title last season, starting the season with a win over Oakland at home. However, they took a loss in a rematch of the championship game against UConn on Friday. The Wolverines return to the court on Wednesday with a home game scheduled against Marquette. They will return to the home floor on Sunday with a buy game against William & Mary. 17. Kansas (Preseason: 17) Kansas enters the season with a new roster since it was ranked No. 17 in the preseason, adding Trey Kaufman-Renn to the lineup. On the court, they have looked the part, picking up big wins over Fordham and MTSU at home during the opening week. The Jayhawks will now participate in the State Farm Champions Classic, ready to take on Kentucky on Tuesday in their first major test. They will then rest through the rest of the week with no more games before the next rankings release. 16. Miami (Preseason: 14) Miami opened the season at No. 14 but suffered an opening day loss against No. 1 Florida on a neutral floor. They bounced back well, picking up a massive victory over Wagner in the home opener on the schedule. The Hurricanes will continue their run of home games in the next week, starting with a Monday matchup against North Florida. They will follow that up against North Alabama on Friday. 15. Arkansas (Preseason: 12) Arkansas ranked No. 12 in the preseason edition of the AP Poll, starting things off with a big win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. They then lost big against Virginia in a neutral site showdown between top-ranked teams. The Razorbacks will be back in action on Wednesday when they host Robert Morris in a buy game. They then get another home opportunity against Central Arkansas over the weekend. 14. Gonzaga (Preseason: 15) Gonzaga started the season with an important victory over Purdue to establish their spot after being ranked No. 15 in the preseason. They followed it up with a home win over New Mexico State. The Zags will return to the floor for a game against LSU over the weekend, playing in the Bad Boy Mowers Series one their home court in the only matchup on the schedule for the week. 13. UCLA (Preseason: 22) UCLA starts the season ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll and picks up the best win in college basketball over No. 5 Arizona on opening night. They followed up that big win with a dominant victory in the home opener against North Florida on Friday. The Bruins will get another buy game at home to start the next week, playing Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Wednesday. From there, they will not play again until the following week. 12. St. John’s (Preseason: 13) St. John’s opens the season with a pair of victories after placing No. 13 in the preseason rankings. They opened the schedule against Monmouth before taking down Iona in a battle with Rick Pitino’s former school. The Red Storm will be back in action on Wednesday with another home game set against Colgate. They will see their first taste of high-major action over the weekend against Syracuse at home. 11. Louisville (Preseason: 11) Louisville starts the season ranked No. 11 in the preseason poll, backing up that spot with a pair of big results over smaller schools this week. They started with a win over Chattanooga before a blowout victory over Morehead State on the weekend. The Cardinals will get over a week to prepare between games, not playing against until next Sunday when they travel on the road against Memphis in an old-school rivalry renewel. 10. Arizona (Preseason: 5) Arizona suffered a loss on the opening day of the season, falling against UCLA on a neutral floor despite entering the year at No. 5 in the AP Poll. They followed up the result well, responding with a home win over Cal Poly. The Wildcats will look to rise back up the rankings again next week when they face Northern Arizona on Tuesday. They will then be back in action against high-major competition on Friday when they face Auburn on the road. 9. Houston (Preseason: 10) Houston starts the season with a win over LaSalle after coming into the year ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll’s Top 25. They will take on California on Sunday nigh in a neutral site matchup which will only impact their ranking if they suffer a loss. The Cougars will continue the season on Wednesday when they host Jacksonville State for a non-conference matchup. That will be the only game they play next week. 8. Tennessee (Preseason: 8) Tennessee enters the season ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll, backing up that ranking with a big win at home in the only matchup on the schedule. It was a Tuesday night blowout when they took on Wofford. The Volunteers will continue to ramp up the season on Monday when they face Radford at home. The run of lower-level opponents will continue on Friday when they host Tennessee State for a game. 7. Virginia (Preseason: 9) Virginia comes into the season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll and is the only Top 25 team which started the year with three games in the opening week. They started with a pair of wins against Drexel and Northeastern in blowout fashion at home before winning big against Arkansas on a neutral floor. The Cavaliers will continue the quick run of matchups early in the season when they take on Bucknell this Tuesday. They will face more high-major competition on Friday when they travel on the road against Maryland. 6. Texas (Preseason: 7) Texas started the season at No. 7 in the AP Poll and made a pair of early statements with blowout home wins over a lesser quality opponent. They put up big numbers against both Chicago State and Gardner-Webb in the opening games on the schedule. The Longhorns will get another chance to impress at home on Monday when they face Grambling. By next Sunday, they will get their first look at high-major competition with a neutral site showdown against in-state rival Baylor. 5. Michigan State (Preseason: 6) Michigan State enters the season at No. 6 in the preseason AP Poll, putting together two big wins over lesser opposition in the first week of action. They started with a victory over Quinnipiac before moving on to a big result against Toledo. The Spartans continue the season with an appearance in the State Farm Champions Classic against Duke on Tuesday. After that, they will play a Friday home game against Northern Iowa. 4. UConn (Preseason: 4) UConn started its season at No.4 in the preseason poll, backing that up with a blowout win over Gardner-Webb in the opening game. They then played No. 16 Michigan on a neutral floor and walked away with one of the top wins in college basketball to this point. The Huskies will be back on the floor Monday when they host Wagner. They then return to action over the weekend with a home game scheduled against Ohio State on Friday. 3. Illinois (Preseason: 3) Illinois started the season ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll Top 25 and picked up a pair of dominant wins to start the regular season. They played two home games, starting with a victory over Fairleigh Dickinson, then beating Penn as well. The Fighting Illini get their first taste of big-time action on Tuesday when they face Texas Texas on the road. They then return home over the weekend to face Sam Houston on Friday. 2. Duke (Preseason: 2) Duke comes into the season as the No. 2 team in the preseason AP Poll, staring the season with an undefeated week. The first action came in a blowout win over Army, then they took down Coastal Carolina in convincing fashion at home. The Blue Devils will face their first major test on Tuesday in the State Farm Champions Classic against Michigan State. They will then return to home for a game against SIUE to wrap up the second week of action. 1. Florida (Preseason: 1) Florida entered the season as the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll and backed that up with an opening day victory over No. 14 Miami. They then won their home debut against Jacksonville to complete a two-win week and start the season right. The Gators will head on the road against in-state rival Florida State on Tuesday, then have another home game scheduled Friday against Merrimack to round out the next week of action. Projected to drop out: N/A Games that could shift rankings Particularly in the non-conference schedule, and even more so during football season, teams will play on Sunday rather than Saturday. This leaves a handful of results which could shift the projected Top 25 in the final hours before voters submit their poll. Here is a look at the remaining games which could have an impact on the final edition of this story, from Top 25 teams to those on the outside looking in with a realistic path to adding a number next to their name. USC vs. Wichita State: Will only impact the projected Top 25 if USC losing, hurting their resume with an early loss against mid-major competition on a neutral court. Houston vs. California: Another neutral site game, this matchup will only impact the projected Top 25 if Houston suffers a loss. Their opponent, California, is not among the teams on the outside looking in at a spot.