Cleveland’s voter turnout has been declining for years. Could the prospect of a Democratic comeback reverse that trend?

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Democrats have fresh reason to believe they can win Ohio’s races for governor and U.S. Senate this November. But their hopes could hinge on overcoming a troubling trend in one of their most important strongholds: Cleveland voters have been showing up at the polls in dwindling numbers.In 2018, Cleveland voters cast 109,331 ballots in the election for governor. Four years later, that number had plunged to just 76,498 — a decline of 30%. That’s nearly 33,000 fewer ballots from a city Democrats have historically counted on to help offset Republican strength elsewhere in Ohio.With Election Day approaching, the stakes are particularly high.Democrat Amy Acton is seeking to break Republicans’ 16-year hold on the governor’s office, while former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to reclaim a Senate seat for Democrats. Both candidates have seen their prospects improve dramatically in prediction markets in recent weeks, amid a bitter campaign season punctuated by a controversial attack ad against Acton.However, favorable political winds won’t necessarily translate into votes. The question now is whether Democrats can persuade enough Cleveland residents to cast ballots to help carry their candidates across the finish line.A troubling turnout trendAn analysis of Cleveland election data dating to 2008 reveals a substantial decline in the city’s electoral participation, particularly in elections for governor.In 2018, when Republican Mike DeWine defeated Democrat Richard Cordray by about 164,000 votes statewide, Cleveland voters cast 109,331 ballots.Four years later, when DeWine easily won reelection over Democrat Nan Whaley by more than 1 million votes, Cleveland’s ballot count had fallen to 76,498.The decline is striking even after accounting for changes in the city’s population.In 2018, the number of ballots cast was equivalent to 36.3% of Cleveland’s estimated voting-age population. By 2022, that figure had dropped to just 26.7%.Presidential elections have drawn considerably more Cleveland voters, although participation in those contests has also declined over the longer term.In 2008, when Barack Obama first won the presidency, Cleveland voters cast 181,763 ballots, equivalent to nearly 60% of the city’s voting-age population. In 2012, the city cast 174,264 ballots.The number dropped to 151,677 in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, and fell again to 141,238 in 2020, when Joe Biden defeated Trump.By 2024, when Trump defeated Kamala Harris, Cleveland’s ballot count had declined to 122,889 — roughly one-third fewer than in 2008.The historical figures underscore the challenge for Democrats: Even as statewide races become more competitive, their ability to capitalize on that opportunity depends in part on participation in cities like Cleveland.The table below compares Cleveland’s ballots cast in elections from 2008 through 2024, measured against the city’s estimated voting-age population.ELECTION YEARVOTING-AGE POPULATIONBALLOTS CASTTURNOUTCHANGE IN BALLOTS CAST2008303,434181,76359.90%—2012299,156174,26458.25%−7,499 (−4.13%)2016299,831151,67750.59%−22,587 (−12.96%)2018301,081109,33136.31%−42,346 (−27.92%)2020299,991141,23847.08%+31,907 (+29.18%)2022286,43376,49826.71%−64,740 (−45.84%)2024291,073122,88942.22%+46,391 (+60.64%)Sources: Cuyahoga County Board of Elections canvasses and U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey voting-age population estimates. The 2020 figure uses the five-year estimate because of pandemic-related data collection disruptions; other years use one-year estimates. The percentages measure ballots cast relative to voting-age population, not turnout among registered or eligible voters.New hope for DemocratsThis year’s political landscape looks considerably different from the one Ohio Democrats confronted in 2022.DeWine, who has served two consecutive terms as governor, is barred from seeking immediate reelection. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is running to succeed him against Acton, Ohio’s former health director.Meanwhile, Brown is attempting a political comeback after losing his 2024 reelection bid. He faces Republican Sen. Jon Husted, whom DeWine appointed to replace JD Vance after Vance became vice president.Both races have been marked by an onslaught of attack advertising, but the governor’s race took an especially ugly turn earlier this month when Ramaswamy’s campaign released a video featuring Acton’s estranged mother accusing her daughter of lying about her traumatic childhood.Acton has publicly described experiencing homelessness, neglect and sexual abuse as a child, including being raped by her stepfather at age 12. Court records support her account of being removed from her mother’s custody following allegations of abuse and neglect.The advertisement provoked widespread condemnation, including from prominent Republicans such as DeWine and Husted. Trump defended the ad, however, and Ramaswamy stood by it, committing $4 million to a statewide campaign featuring the video.In the aftermath, prediction markets have registered a sharp rise in Acton’s perceived chances of winning.As of Oct. 29, Kalshi assigned Acton approximately an 80% probability of victory while Polymarket placed her chances at 84%.Brown has also emerged as the favorite in those markets, with Kalshi assigning him a 68% chance of winning and Polymarket putting his probability at approximately 69%.Those figures reflect the prices traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to election outcomes, rather than scientific surveys of voters. They can change quickly and are no guarantee of what will happen on Election Day, nor is it clear how much the controversy surrounding Ramaswamy’s advertisement has influenced voters themselves.Shifting expectations, however, have raised the stakes for Democrats’ efforts to turn potential support into actual ballots.Getting Cleveland to the pollsThat helps explain why Democrats have been pouring resources into their final push across Ohio, and why one of the party’s biggest names made Cleveland a destination in the campaign’s closing days.Last week, Obama joined Acton and Brown at Cleveland Public Auditorium, rallying thousands of supporters behind the Democratic ticket. His appearance brought the party’s get-out-the-vote effort to a city where his own presidential campaigns once drew substantially more voters than have participated in recent elections.The Ohio Democratic Party has also mounted a statewide organizing campaign called OhioWins, launched in May with an initial staff of more than 20 people and plans for voter outreach in all 88 counties. The effort targets urban communities, rural areas and college campuses.Organized labor is participating, too. The Ohio Civil Service Employees Association has promoted neighborhood canvassing and voter-contact efforts, including a Greater Cleveland canvassing event scheduled for Nov. 1 and a rally featuring Acton and Brown that evening.There are already indications that Ohio voters are more engaged in this year’s election than they were four years ago.As of Oct. 26, nearly 1.36 million Ohioans had requested absentee ballots or voted early in person. That was more than 67% above the final 2022 total for those categories, with nearly 1.1 million ballots already cast.Cuyahoga County led the state with 146,994 early votes and absentee requests, and its early in-person voting had already surpassed the total from the 2022 election.Those countywide figures don’t establish whether Cleveland itself is experiencing a similar rebound, nor do they reveal which candidates are benefiting from the increased participation.For Democrats, that’s the uncertainty hanging over the final days of the campaign.Prediction markets may favor Acton and Brown and early voting numbers may suggest heightened enthusiasm, but neither guarantees that Cleveland voters will return to the polls in the numbers Democrats need.The city cast nearly 33,000 fewer ballots in the last governor’s election than it did four years earlier. Whether that trend reverses this November could help determine how much of Democrats’ newfound optimism translates into victory.Ohioans can vote early through Nov. 1 or head to the polls on Election Day, Nov. 3.