CIA's Ratcliffe Reportedly Warned Kremlin of Soviet-Style Collapse in Moscow Visit

CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly warned the Kremlin during his Moscow visit against a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union in the 1990s should it continue the war in Ukraine, a new German report claimed.Ratcliffe visited Moscow unannounced in late August, with details of the visit undisclosed.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.But German outlet Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), citing “a high-ranking diplomat familiar with the CIA’s briefings to Western partner agencies,” claimed on Saturday that Ratcliffe cautioned Moscow of a potential collapse similar to that of the USSR.According to the outlet, Ratcliffe conveyed Washington’s assessment that Russia has struggled to make military gains while its economy risks buckling under war-related pressure, reinforcing the call for Moscow to negotiate and not count on Washington to abandon Kyiv.Recent reports note that the Kremlin expects its 2026 budget deficit to reach 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) – up from an earlier estimate of 1.6% – while optimistically lowering that forecast in 2027 to 2%, mainly by borrowing.For context, a World Bank assessment from March 1992 estimated the budget deficit to the gross national product (GNP) to be 20% by 1991, the year of its collapse, after rising from the average of 2% in the early 1980s – though the ratio itself is not a sure-fire indicator of economic collapse.But the FAZ’s claim is broadly in line with those reported by the New York Times (NYT) in the wake of the visit, with the outlet – citing current and former US officials – claiming that Ratcliffe delivered a similar assessment to Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). Other Topics of Interest While Russia Pounds Kyiv, Most Russians Support ‘Global Cooperation’ Different samples, fear of dissent, and competing ideas of peace may help explain the apparent contradiction between Russian attitudes toward cooperation and the war. US officials reportedly hoped Putin, himself a former Soviet intelligence officer, would take a message from the CIA director more seriously than one delivered through traditional diplomatic channels.Other outlets speculated the visit might have been to caution Moscow against aiding Iran or escalating against NATO.Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed three undisclosed decrees following Ratcliffe’s visit – though their connections with the visit remain unclear – while President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv was subsequently briefed on the visit without disclosing details.Zelensky also reportedly met Ratcliffe during a stop in Ireland en route to New York’s UN General Assembly in September, following earlier rumors that Ratcliffe might be taking over the negotiator role from US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to the lack of progress.Little signs of de-escalationWhile it’s unclear whether Ratcliffe delivered his warning against a Soviet-style collapse, Moscow has braced for major escalation.Days after mid-September’s State Duma elections, Putin has signed a new decree expanding the military to 2.4 million personnel, including 1.5 million active-duty troops, while Kyiv warned that Moscow is also expanding North Korean contingents deployed to the country.Financially, Moscow is also eyeing a historic hike in defense spending in its 2027 budget, bringing the sum to a record 17.1 trillion rubles ($203 billion) – or roughly 35% of Russia’s total federal expenditures that year.The measures also coincide with European warnings of a potential armed confrontation with Moscow in the coming months, with the Kremlin also raising its nuclear posture in its exclave of Kaliningrad.With Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine beginning in earnest on Wednesday, Sept. 30, according to Kyiv, and the Kremlin ruling out peace talks for now, FAZ suggested the winter could be Putin’s last bid to consolidate his position before negotiations begin. Leo Chiu is a journalist and editor based in Eastern Europe since 2015. He has witnessed two presidential elections in Belarus and traveled widely to conflict zones and contested regions, producing reporting that bridges the gap between major developments and local realities.