China’s manifestly greater threat: Why Gen. Dan Caine is warning Trump about Iran munitions

Gen. Dan Caine’s responsibility as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is to balance finite military capabilities against many military contingencies. This hard task is made harder by the unstable international security environment. But considering the balance of U.S. strategic interests, Caine’s first priority is to maximize the U.S. military’s ability to deter or win a war with China.Levin argues daily that the United States should be using all necessary force, including ground troops, to end the Iranian regime. Considering this regime’s highly destructive and destabilizing behavior, Levin’s desire for regime change is understandable. And to be clear, the U.S. must maintain its naval blockade and some military action until Iran returns to the concessionary negotiating table. But there are two problems with Levin’s call for escalation. First, the now-proven durability of the Iranian regime (it remains stable after months of conflict) means that prosecuting military action until its demise would entail efforts and ensuing state failure risks that outweigh the potential benefits of that pursuit. As an extension, these efforts and risks would fundamentally undermine America’s priority global interest in deterring China.The war, as I and others predicted in February, has greatly depleted already woefully inadequate stocks of the most important air-defense munitions. These munitions matter because they would be absolutely critical in blunting vast Chinese missile attacks against U.S. military bases on Guam and Okinawa amid a war over Taiwan. Yes, it is absolutely unacceptable that the first Trump administration and the Biden administration failed to address this munitions deficit. But the U.S. cannot simply surge production of these weapons now. Spare parts shortages, shortages of skilled labor, and insufficient factory space mean that reconstituting the key THAAD, Patriot, and SM-class interceptor stocks will take at least three years, if not longer. And this assumes the Trump administration advances its moderate plan to boost production. Even a full-scale war footing would likely only halve this timeline.Caine’s concern about depleting more of these munitions in defending U.S. forces against Iranian missile attacks is understandable, then. Levin, however, rather absurdly suggests that Caine is a weak military leader. In so doing, he fails to recognize that Caine’s job is to manage the plethora of contingencies while the U.S. military commander for the Middle East is responsible only for Middle Eastern contingencies. Those who argue that factoring munitions shortages into the Iran strategy renders the U.S. military pointless are either deluding themselves about China’s threat or believe that Iran poses a greater threat.Theirs is a serious folly.Iran is a problematic wasp that can be swatted when necessary and its nuclear nests perpetually destroyed or made into tombs. China is a dragon that, were Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping successful in realizing his dream of conquering Taiwan, would secure global economic and political hegemony. That would mean Americans and our allies everywhere being poorer and less free. It would allow China to demand political loyalty and systemic intellectual property transfers from nations in return for allowing them to trade. It would, in short, be catastrophic.TOM ROGAN: CHINA SHOOTS ITSELF IN THE ASEAN FOOT WITH LATEST PHILIPPINES SKIRMISHCaine knows this. He also knows that the munitions stockpiles threaten America’s ability to survive the opening stages of a war with China and even begin to generate the forces necessary to operate in and around Taiwan. So, as is his responsibility, he is providing his best military advice to the commander in chief to measure his use of force alongside the associated risks of doing so. Trump makes the final call.Levin, like me, has the privilege of a chair from which to advise national security policy. Caine carries the heavy burden of his oath.