China’s Expanding Presence in Kyrgyzstan Undermines Human Rights, U.S. Strategic Interests

In Kyrgyzstan, criticism of Chinese influence can end in public shaming or an arrest warrant. On July 20, a Kyrgyz presidential administration official published photographs, names, birth dates, and social media handles for individuals who he alleged had “incited ethnic hatred” by “spreading false information” about Chinese activity. The official threatened legal action against them. The crackdown comes as social media has fueled backlash over policies increasing China’s role in the Kyrgyz economy. Proposed land reforms have garnered particular dissatisfaction: Under the new terms, a foreign company, with presidential approval, could lease state-owned land without completing a competitive procurement process. This pathway could further reduce barriers to Chinese investment in infrastructure, mining, and beyond. As in much of Central Asia, Chinese economic influence is growing, media freedoms are decreasing, and criticism of China is becoming increasingly risky in Kyrgyzstan. Authorities have previously arrested and prosecuted critics of Chinese projects. This targeted elimination of opposition increases Beijing’s ability to operate unchecked. China Holds the Economic Reins and Uses Them To Aid U.S. Adversaries Kyrgyzstan’s weak economy depends heavily on China. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested in a slew of infrastructure projects in Kyrgyzstan, sending tens of thousands of Chinese workers, accounting for about 60 percent of the country’s work visas. China’s Export-Import Bank alone holds about 30 percent of Bishkek’s external public debt, and reported trade with China accounts for at least a third of Kyrgyzstan’s own. However, the true extent of China-Kyrgyzstan trade is hard to assess: China reports 547 percent more trade with Kyrgyzstan than Kyrgyzstan itself reports. This discrepancy likely results from Kyrgyzstan’s role in transshipping Chinese products, which it does not count. China, in turn, uses its positioning to project power and aid Russia’s war effort. Extensive, undocumented Kyrgyz imports provide an opaque pathway through which China routes sanctioned dual-use goods, such as computer chips and microelectronics, to Russia for use by its military. Following the 2022 renewal of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, Chinese exports of 45 controlled items to Kyrgyzstan soared. Kyrgyzstan has also emerged as a hub for Russian sanctions evasion since 2022, potentially with government-level support for involved companies and cryptocurrency ventures. China’s Fingerprint in Domestic Politics China has repeatedly used its economic and political leverage to target dissent from abroad. In April, a court in Kazakhstan convicted 19 activists for “inciting ethnic hatred” following a Chinese diplomatic complaint regarding protests of China’s treatment of oppressed minorities in Xinjiang. Though there is no evidence that Beijing directed Kyrgyzstan’s July crackdown, their identical language of “inciting ethnic hatred” indicates the use of a common legal framework for limiting speech about China. Simultaneously, the Kyrgyz government is attempting to limit press freedoms — including by blocking U.S.-run Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (locally known as Radio Azattyk), which recently profiled China’s expanding influence in the country. For Kyrgyz officials, expanding prosecution of “inciting ethnic hatred” and “spreading false information” enables efforts both to curry Chinese favor and to justify targeting political threats to the regime. Washington Should Expose and Guard Against Chinese Influence As Central Asian officials restrict press freedoms and activism critical of Chinese investment, the U.S. diplomatic podium and global media network can ensure legitimate grievances remain heard. In a restricted media climate, Radio Azattyk plays an important role in publishing stories that do not fit state narratives. The United States must maintain support for this program. Washington should also consider the potential applicability of sanctions to Kyrgyz officials under the Global Magnitsky Act, designed to cut off human rights offenders’ financial access. As the United States considers investments in Central Asian critical mineral projects, an economic sector in which China exerts substantial influence, Washington must mitigate the risks of exposure to Beijing’s sway. Kyrgyz efforts to reduce oversight and competition for land leases could pave the way for Chinese expansion at the expense of Western competitors. Investment under regimes beholden to China — if strong rule of law and due diligence are not ensured — may face unfair competition or unequal access to resources and opportunities. Angela Howard is a research analyst at the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Angela and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. Follow Angela on X at @angela__howard. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.