Check out the CFB market movement on Kalshi for No. 1 Texas vs. No. 14 Tennessee tomorrow

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs the ball in the third quarter of the Longhorns' game against the UTSA Roadrunners at Royal-Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, Sept. 19, 2026.(Sara Diggins/The San Antonio Express-News via AP)By Matt Boecker | Advance LocalCollege football fans don’t have to wait long tomorrow to enjoy a premier matchup between undefeated SEC squads. No. 1 Texas leaves the Lone Star State for the first time this season to face No. 14 Tennessee at 11 a.m. CT.When Kalshi released the college football prediction markets for this matchup, the Longhorns were decisive favorites in the game-winner market. Texas is still expected to come out on top, but the moneyline market has changed dramatically in the past two weeks.Let’s check the latest Texas vs. Tennessee trading probabilities to see why the market is moving. NOTE: The Kalshi probabilities listed below were accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.Texas vs. Tennessee market on KalshiKalshi traders were all in on Texas after beating Ohio State on Sept. 12. The Longhorns trailed 23-3 in the fourth quarter but mounted a miraculous comeback featuring 21 unanswered points. Transfer RB Hollywood Smothers shined with two touchdowns in the final eight minutesAfter the game, Texas’ win probability against Tennessee spiked to 84%. In the early hours of Sept. 13, the market flipped to the Volunteers at 56%. Tennessee’s time as the favorite was short-lived, as Texas quickly returned to 75% by 5 p.m. CT.With kickoff less than 24 hours away, the Longhorns are a 5.5-point favorite with a 65% chance of winning outright. Coach Steve Sarkisian has led the team to a 3-0 record with victories over Texas State, then-No. 1 Ohio State and UTSA. Neyland Stadium is one of the toughest road environments in college football, and the Volunteers are trading at 35%. Tennessee is riding a three-game win streak after beating Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State by an average of 34 points.Why Texas could winProbability: 65% at KalshiAccording to the SEC Student-Athlete Availability Report, Smothers is questionable with a leg injury. Smothers is a dynamic ball carrier with 252 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. His absence would be a major blow for the Longhorns’ offense, forcing RB Raleek Brown to shoulder a much larger workload in the first SEC road game of the season.Playing away from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium was an issue for Texas last season. Sarkisian led the team to a 9-3 regular-season record, and the three losses came on the road against Ohio State, Florida and Georgia. The Longhorns’ offense picked up 52 rushing yards or less in the losses to the Gators and Bulldogs, and that must change on Saturday. Smothers may be out or limited, but Brown has what it takes to lead Texas backfield. Brown is averaging 4.2 yards per carry with 129 yards and two touchdowns in a secondary role behind Smothers.It’s been a hot-and-cold start to the season for QB Arch Manning. He posted gaudy passing stats in a Week 1 victory over Texas State, but cooled down considerably in the next two matchups versus Ohio State and UTSA.However, Arch is playing with far more confidence compared to last season. It helps to have three top-tier pass catchers at his disposal. The WR trio of Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V have combined for 473 yards and six touchdowns.Tennessee’s defense surrenders the second-fewest passing yards in the SEC, but the unit hasn’t faced a WR corps with Texas’ talent. Watch for the Longhorns to overwhelm the Volunteers’ untested defense as Texas moves to 4-0. MORE: See our expert review of the best prediction markets for September 2026.Why Tennessee could winProbability: 35% at KalshiThe pressure is on Tennessee true freshman QB Faizon Brandon in his first taste of SEC play. He was solid in wins over Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State. However, none of those defenses match what Texas brings to the table with DE Colin Simmons and company.The Volunteers can take the heat off Brandon by relying on a rushing attack that gains 298.7 yards per game, the fourth-most in the nation. Third-year RB DeSean Bishop and RB Duane Morris have combined for 520 yards and seven touchdowns, while Brandon has scooted for 137 yards and three touchdowns. Tennessee isn’t likely to hit 300 yards on the ground tomorrow, but Bishop and Morris can do enough to keep the Longhorns’ defense on their toes. Simmons is an elite pass rusher for Texas, but it lacks depth beyond the future first-rounder. The Longhorns’ five sacks are the second-fewest in the SEC. Plus, Simmons may be limited after exiting last week’s game with a foot injury.Tennessee can notch its third win against a No. 1-ranked team if the rushing attack has another strong performance and Brandon gets time to throw. He’s taken three sacks this season behind the Volunteers’ elite offensive line, and coach Josh Heupel needs his freshman QB to feel comfortable in his first conference clash.How Kalshi works for Texas vs. TennesseeThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates Kalshi as a Designated Contract Market. Since Kalshi isn’t a sportsbook, qualifying users can sign up in more than 40 states. This includes Texas, California and other jurisdictions that haven’t legalized sports betting.A trade happens when you buy or sell an event contract. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, and winning predictions settle at $1 per share. Kalshi markets are easy to read because the contract price reflects the implied probability based on supply and demand.For example, Texas is trading at $0.65 in the moneyline market, meaning the Longhorns have a 65% chance to win. Contracts above 50% have a higher chance of winning and a lower payout, while contracts below 50% carry greater risk and larger profits.Users can place limit orders to try purchasing contracts at a better price. However, another trader must accept the bid since all predictions are peer-to-peer.The Kalshi promo code AL55 delivers a $55 bonus for first-time customers who trade $25. Bonuses expire seven days after issuance, and you must be 18 or older to join.NOTE: Event contract trading involves risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Prediction market content is not intended for individuals in jurisdictions where it is prohibited.Look at how this CFB market is moving for tomorrows Alabama vs South Carolina gameTop trending NFL markets & Kalshi prices to follow for Week 3 games, including Chiefs vs. DolphinsKalshi Promo Code AL55: Get $55 Bonus to Trade NFL Games This WeekendDraftKings promo code: Claim $150 in bonuses for Falcons vs. Packers on Thursday Night FootballFanDuel promo code: $250 bonus guaranteed starting with Falcons vs. Packers on TNFLearn more about our gaming editorial staff.If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234 If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. 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