Champions League predictions, picking every league phase game: Bayern dominate while Man United struggle

A game-by-game simulation of the 144-match league phase projects early shocks for Barcelona and Real Madrid alongside heavyweight battles for Arsenal and Bayern Munich. Sep 7, 2026 at 12:33 pm ET • 8 min read Ladies and gentlemen, we are so back. The Champions League is here and with that comes the content games most inaccurate endeavour: attempting to pick every one of the 144 matches in the league phase. Last year we had Real Madrid top, Napoli on the verge of a bye to the round of 16 and Villarreal on an impressive 11 points. We also had Kairat on one point and a goal difference of -16 but no one ever wants to celebrate your moments of near-perfection, do they?I suppose what I'm saying is, don't take these predictions to your local sportsbook. However by all means bookmark them and we can pick this up again on January 27.Matchweek 1Club Brugge 1, Aston Villa 2AEK Athens 1, LASK 0Real Madrid 3, Inter 1Porto 2, Manchester City 2Borussia Dortmund 2, Villarreal 0Lille 1, Real Betis 1Barcelona 3, Feyenoord 1Stuttgart 1, Viking 0Liverpool 2, Atletico Madrid 1Paris Saint-Germain 3, Slovan Bratislava 0Napoli 0, Arsenal 1Sporting 1, Galatasaray 0Fenerbahce 2, Roma 3PSV Eindhoven 2, Shakhtar 0Bayern Munich 3, Bodo/Glimt 1Manchester United 4, Sabah 0Como 1, RB Leipzig 1Slavia Prague 1, Lens 0The headline act for week one, just as he would want it, Jose Mourinho serves up the most impressive performance of the round as his Real Madrid side get much the better of his former employers Inter, Kylian Mbappe translating his gaudy acquisition of shots from LaLiga into the Champions League.Meanwhile, it's a tough start for the debutants. LASK and Viking losing by one goal on the road while Como find themselves held to a point by a counter-punching RB Leipzig. As for Azeri side Sabah, a night under the Old Trafford lights is a memorable experience even if Michael Carrick's side eventually breezes through. In a familiar theme for the league phase, the competition starts quite rosily for the English clubs. All bar Manchester City emerge victorious, Enzo Maresca's side twice pegged back by an impressive-looking Porto. Matchweek 2Lens 1, Sporting 0Sabah 2, Slavia Prague 1Inter 2, Club Brugge 0Galatasaray 3, Barcelona 2Atletico Madrid 1, Manchester United 1Arsenal 2, Lille 0Viking 1, Bayern Munich 3RB Leipzig 2, PSV Eindhoven 2Villarreal 0, Napoli 0LASK 0, Liverpool 2Feyenoord 2, Como 1Roma 2, Real Madrid 0Manchester City 1, Paris Saint-Germain 0Bodo/Glimt 1, Borussia Dortmund 1Aston Villa 2, Fenerbahce 1Real Betis 1, Porto 2Shakhtart Donetsk 2, AEK Athens 0Slovan Bratislava 1, Stuttgart 2A shock-heavy second week, particularly for Spain's big two, who run into brutal away games at precisely the wrong moment. Victor Osimhen and Barıs Alper Yilmaz run riot behind Barcelona's high line while Mourinho's return to the Eternal City is a painful one, with Donyell Malen scoring yet more goals.The drama is not done there. One of the intriguing questions of the last two seasons has been whether Paris Saint-Germain are indifferent to the league phase or whether their continued involvement in the knockout playoffs is just a coincidence. A 1-0 defeat at the Etihad suggests there might be something to the former viewpoint, a rotated iteration of the holders never really rousing themselves in pursuit of victory.Maybe the biggest shock of all comes in Azerbaijan. Sabah, who, according to clubELO, rate as a relegation scrapper in the EFL Championship, win their first home match of the league phase, downing Slavia Prague in dramatic late fashion. Matchweek 3Sabah 0, Borussia Dortmund 4Fenerbahce 3, Slavia Prague 1Manchester City 4, AEK Athens 1Stuttgart 1, Atletico Madrid 1Liverpool 2, Villarreal 0Roma 3, Slovan Bratislava 1Porto 2, PSV Eindhoven 2Napoli 2, Bodo/Glimt 1Paris Saint-Germain 3, Barcelona 3Como 1, Manchester United 0Lille 2, Galatasaray 0Real Madrid 2, RBL Leipzig 0Inter 1, Shakhtar 0Bayern Munich 2, Arsenal 1Club Brugge 1, Lens 1Aston Villa 3, Viking 0Sporting 2, LASK 1Real Betis 1, Feyenoord 1What are arguably the four favorites to win the Champions League face off this week, and almost all of them emerge from the games with their candidacy to win it all improved. Even Arsenal can feel good about going to the Allianz Arena and pushing Bayern Munich close, how much better might they be later in the year with William Saliba back? The final third power of Michael Olise and Harry Kane is just too much for the Gunners this time out, but things could be different if they meet each other in the spring.One hopes that if PSG and Barcelona cross paths again in the knockout stages, they serve up another footballing feast like this. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lamine Yamal devastating off the flanks, Raphinha and Ousmane Dembele every inch the modern center forward. Defending seems like it might be optional, but don't worry too much about that on our accounts lads.Matchweek 4Shakhtar Donetsk 1, Sporting 1Galatasaray 1, Stuttgart 0Feyenoord 1, Inter 2Barcelona 3, Aston Villa 0Atletico Madrid 1, Bayern Munich 3Villarreal 0, Paris Saint-Germain 2Manchester United 1, Roma 1Bodo/Glimt 1, Lille 0LASK 2, Slovan Bratislava 0AEK Athens 2, Real Madrid 5Fenerbahce 2, Liverpool 2RB Leipzig 0, Manchester City 2Slavia Prague 0, Arsenal 4PSV Eindhoven 2, Club Brugge 1Borussia Dortmund 1, Real Betis 1Porto 1, Napoli 0Lens 1, Como 1Viking 2, Sabah 0At the midway point, the league table is beginning to coalesce into a manageable form. Leading the way are the only team with a 100% record, Bayern Munich, breezing to a win at the Metropolitano. In hot pursuit are a boatload of English sides, four of them inside the top seven, with Real Madrid and Inter also in the top eight. It is the other team that is the most intriguing, Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma looking like dark horses for this tournament even as they are held to a draw at Old Trafford. Meanwhile, down the other end, it's not looking good for one of last season's semifinalists... Pos.TeamWDLGDPts.24Feyenoord112-2425Bodo/Glimt112-2326Real Betis031-1327LASK103-2328Viking103-4329Slavia Prague103-6330AEK Athens103-6331Sabah103-9332Atletico Madrid022-3233RB Leipzig022-32Atletico Madrid's problem early on is probably nothing more than a fixture list that has thrown them Liverpool, Manchester United and Bayern Munich out of the traps. When Stuttgart are your "easy" game, things can go wrong, particularly when you yourselves have faltered domestically too. Everything should be fine for Diego Simeone's side, who have two Norwegian opponents left on the fixture docket, but they are dicing with danger.Matchweek 5Galatasaray 2, Aston Villa 2Bodo/Glimt 1, LASK 0Real Madrid 3, PSV Eindhoven 1Manchester City 3, Napoli 0Arsenal 2, Borussia Dortmund 0Feyenoord 1, Porto 0Slovan Bratislava 1, Real Betis 2RB Leipzig 1, Lens 0Como 3, AEK Athens 1Sabah 1, Barcelona 6Slavia Prague 1, Villarreal 3Inter 2, Stuttgart 0Atletico Madrid 2, Viking 1Paris Saint-Germain 3, Roma 0Club Brugge 1, Liverpool 2Lille 1, Bayern Munich 2Sporting 1, Manchester United 1Shakhtar 0, Fenerbahce 0With three games left to play English sides occupy positions two, three, six, 10 and... 20. Yes, it has not been an ideal return to the Champions League for three-time winners Manchester United, who by late November look to be buckling under the weight of domestic and continental fixtures. Michael Carrick's cautious, possession-first football means they have a pretty reasonable record of four goals conceded in five games. It is the seven scored that is a problem. With RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Villarreal to come, a spot in the top 24 is not a lock by any means.Matchweek 6Villarreal 2, Sabah 0Viking 1, Feyenoord 1Barcelona 3, Manchester City 1Aston Villa 0, Paris Saint-Germain 2Bayern Munich 4, Slavia Prague 0Napoli 3, Club Brugge 0Roma 2, Sporting 2Manchester United 1, RB Leipzig 0AEK Athens 3, Galatasaray 0Real Betis 1, Como 0Slovan Bratislava 1, Shakhtar Donetsk 0Arsenal 2, Real Madrid 1Borussia Dortmund 2, Inter 2PSV Eindhoven 1, Atletico Madrid 2Liverpool 1, Porto 0Lens 2, Bodo/Glimt 0LASK 1, Fenerbahce 1Stuttgart 1, Lille 0Matchweek 6 is the league phase's equivalent to moving day at The Masters or The Open, albeit the prize being the right to play more football matches. By this point, spots in the top eight are starting to get locked off, Bayern Munich absolutely guaranteeing theirs with another win while Liverpool and Arsenal get themselves in a position where they would have to drop points in both remaining games to slip out.Lower down, Manchester United's win over RB Leipzig has them set pretty well at nine points, enough to qualify for the knockout playoffs last season. Atletico Madrid are rising fast too, but behind them the margins are razor thin. Villarreal are in 22nd on seven points and minus-two goal difference. Galatasaray in 26th have seven and minus-four. Even 32nd-place Viking might feel they have a chance with only a three-point gap to make up.Matchweek 7Bodo/Glimt 1, Atletico Madrid 2Galatasaray 3, Feyenoord 1Real Madrid 3, LASK 0Inter 2, Liverpool 1Stuttgart 1, Club Brugge 2Aston Villa 1, Borussia Dortmund 1AEK Athens 0, Roma 0Porto 2, Slavia Prague 0Lille 4, Slovan Bratislava 1Fenerbahce 1, Villarreal 0Sabah 0, Napoli 2Lens 1, Manchester City 3Sporting 0, Barcelona 2Como 1, Paris Saint-Germain 2Real Betis 0, Arsenal 1Manchester United 1, Bayern Munich 3Viking 2, PSV Eindhoven 2RB Leipzig 1, Shakhtar 0A round of games left to play and most of the richest, highest-profile teams in Europe have extricated themselves from the bunfight below them. That seems a harsh but accurate reflection of where the game is right now. First through sixth -- Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Barcelona, PSG, Liverpool and Inter -- are certain of their passage and will just be playing for seeding. Real Madrid can approach their final game with a similar outlook, while a point would likely be enough for Roma.All the drama of the final round is going to come from below. Lille, RB Leipzig and Villarreal are the teams from a big five league who have work to do to scrabble up the table on the final day, while there is absolutely nothing to separate AEK Athens and Feyenoord. Not points, not goal difference, not goals scored.Matchweek 8Shakhtar Donetsk 1, Real Madrid 3Manchester City 2, Sporting 1Slovan Bratislava 1, Inter 1Barcelona 3, Como 2Atletico Madrid 2, Fenerbahce 2Paris Saint-Germain 4, Galatasaray 1Liverpool 0, Lens 0Arsenal 5, Sabah 0Bayern Munich 2, Real Betis 2Club Brugge 1, Bodo/Glimt 0Borussia Dortmund 2, AEK Athens 2Slavia Prague 1, Aston Villa 2Roma 1, Lille 0LASK 1, Porto 2Villarreal 2, Manchester United 1PSV Eindhoven 3, Stuttgart 1Feyenoord 0, RB Leipzig 2Napoli 1, Viking 0Right you've scrolled far enough. You'll be wanting a table.Pos.TeamWDLGDPts.1Bayern Munich71014222Arsenal70115213Barcelona61114194Paris Saint-Germain61113195Real Madrid60211186Manchester City5217177Liverpool5216178Inter5215179Roma43131510Porto42231411Aston Villa42211412Napoli41321313PSV Eindhoven33221214Atletico Madrid33201215Borussia Dortmund25141116RB Leipzig323-11117Fenerbahce24201018Real Betis24201019Villarreal314-21020Stuttgart314-31021Galatasaray314-51022Manchester United2331923Lens233-1924Sporting233-2925AEK Athens233-3926Como224-1827Feyenoord224-5828Lille215-1729Bodo/Glimt215-5730Club Brugge215-6731Shakhtar Donetsk125-5532Viking125-6533LASK116-7434Slovan Bratislava116-11435Slavia Prague107-15336Sabah107-233As in the previous two seasons, qualification for the knockout playoffs is decided by goal difference, and in some ways it is a repeat of 2025-26 as a Portuguese side find their way through somehow. Sporting advance because they only lost at the Etihad by a single goal. Any worse a margin than that and AEK Athens would have pipped them at the post.Pity for Como too, who have a brutal run to the finish line in Real Betis, Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona. A point from any of those games and they would have advanced on the first try but the Champions League is not the most forgiving of teachers.